ADP Battle: Tyler Boyd or D.J. Moore?
You are on the clock in the sixth round. Tyler Boyd or D.J. Moore? Which one should you take?
In part one of our ADP Battle series Ben Rolfe looked at players with many different ADPs when the numbers suggest they should be much closer together. In part two of this series, I have looked at players who have extremely close average draft positions and decide which player offers the most value. Little decisions like these will determine the success of your entire draft. Picking the right players in these situations will determine your success in 2019.
Last week, we looked at three receivers with an ADP around the fifth round of PPR redraft leagues. This week we will take a closer look at two receivers with an ADP in the sixth round.
Note: All ADP (Average Draft Position) data is based on PPR scoring per The fantasyfootballcalculator.
Tyler Boyd is currently the 28th receiver off the board in PPR redraft leagues. In his third season, Boyd set career highs in targets (108), receptions (76), yards receiving (1028), and receiving touchdowns (7). The career highs helped Boyd finish as the WR15 in PPR leagues in 2018. Soon to turn 25, Boyd should be a big part of the Bengals offense in 2019. A common narrative this offseason is that Boyd largely benefited from the injury to A.J. Green last season. Below are the splits for Boyd with versus without Green in the game. The “in split” column represents all games in which both Boyd and Green played.
As Jeff Smith pointed out earlier this offseason, Boyd actually produced far better with A.J. Green than he did without him. This is an extremely promising sign for 2019. The Bengals made no significant investments in wide receivers this offseason so we should see a similar role for Boyd in 2019. A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd can both command large target shares in this Bengals offense. Tyler Boyd proved last season he can be a top-15 receiver in fantasy football. With A.J. Green fully healthy and an improved offensive line in Cincinnati, Boyd is a low risk and high upside investment at his current ADP.
Second-year receiver D.J. Moore is currently going as the 26th receiver in redraft PPR leagues. Two spots ahead of Tyler Boyd. Last season, Moore finished as the WR36 in PPR leagues. Below are the splits for Boyd in his last five games of the season with Cam Newton versus his first 11 games with Cam.
Moore finished the season much better than he started it. He only scored two touchdowns last season despite racking up nearly 800 yards on 82 targets. Devin Funchess, who had more targets per game last season than Moore, left in free agency to join the Colts this offseason. Funchess also led the Panthers receivers in red zone targets this past season, with 12. Only Christian McCaffrey, who had 16, topped Funchess in that stat. Moore finished with just eight red zone targets in 2018. He seems destined for positive touchdown regression in 2019. However, there is no guarantee those valuable vacated targets will all go to him. Curtis Samuel, who will likely be the number two option next season, finished the year with nine red zone targets in 2018 despite only playing 12 games. Do not be surprised if the departure of Funchess benefits the red zone role of Curtis Samuel more than D.J. Moore.
D.J. Moore should be the number two receiver for the Panthers in 2019 behind Christian McCaffrey. Moore, an elite prospect out of college, should see an increase in targets in 2019. If he can get an increased role in the red zone, Moore will be a value at his current ADP. However, if Curtis Samuel continues to be the primary receiver for Cam Newton inside of the red zone, D.J. Moore will likely fail to outproduce his current cost. We also know that receivers are most likely to break out in their second season. Moore is a moderate risk and high upside pick at his current price.
Tyler Boyd or D.J. Moore? Both receivers are young and should be in expanded roles in 2019. Below are the percentages of weekly finishes for the two receivers.
It is clear that Boyd was a much better fantasy asset than Moore last season. This is largely due to the slow start for D.J. Moore in his rookie year. As we know, volume is the key to consistency in fantasy football. Thus, it is not all that surprising that Boyd had significantly more targets last season than Moore. Below is a graph of the two receivers targets by week.
In the first seven weeks of the season, Moore did not have a game with more than 5 targets. Boyd had over 5 targets in all but one of those weeks. We should be encouraged by how Moore finished out the season. However, we also should not ignore how unreliable he was in the first half of his rookie season. Tyler Boyd only had four games last season with five or fewer targets.
Both Boyd and Moore have the potential to outproduce their current 6th round ADP. However, when I am on the clock in the sixth round I am going with the receiver who performed like a top-15 receiver last season.
- Tyler Boyd
- D.J. Moore
- Tyler Boyd
- D.J. Moore
- Tyler Boyd
- D.J. Moore