AFC Do Not Draft for the Risk-Averse
AFC Do Not Draft for the Risk-Averse
Following up on yesterdays NFC list, this is a list of do not draft players from the AFC if you are risk-averse. The current ADP is too high for the potential headaches associated with them. While each player discussed does offer upside, there are other players you can draft in that range that are much safer. This is not to say you cannot draft these players, but only at the right price. Let us get started.
Kalen Ballage is currently being selected as the RB45 in redraft leagues. Fortunately, the ADP has tempered some after Ballage was being drafted as high as the early eighth round not long ago.
This is still too high of a price to pay for a back that averaged just 3 rushing attempts and .8 receptions per game in his rookie season. There are other options in his range that offer far more upside. Devin Singletary, Justice Hill and Alexander Mattison are all rookies with immense potential in 2019 and can be had for the same price.
Ballage did have one game in double digits in 2018, but that clearly was an outlier and Kenyan Drake only received one carry while nursing a shoulder injury. Frank Gore is gone, but Mark Walton is trying to resurrect his career and could see passing game work. There is just not enough consistency here to warrant a selection in this range. Other backs offering more potential at a cheaper cost.
Antonio Brown is going off the board as the WR9 in redraft formats. Talent is not the reason the former Pittsburgh Steeler makes this list. Rather it is the fragile mental state displayed over the past several months. The helmet issue seems to have been resolved, but as FFStatistics own Sam Factor and Luke Bugoni point out here, what happens if the Raiders start 2-6 and he decides to check out.
There is also the Ben Roethlisberger factor to consider. Without the Pro Bowl quarterback looking his way, Brown is just a WR46 over 10 games. Using the splits tool courtesy of FFStatistics, we see the Central Michigan grad averages just 8 PPR points per game.
FFStatistics writer Pete Behnke makes some great points here as well. The Oakland Raiders have a bottom-tier offensive line and face one of the toughest schedules against the pass rush this season. Receivers you can draft in this range include Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, and Adam Thielen. In fact, Mike Evans was nearly as consistent as Brown last season and is in a much better offense. Do not take the gamble on AB playing 16 games this season.
Josh Gordon is currently getting drafted as the WR24 in redraft leagues. As with Antonio Brown, talent is not the reason Gordon makes this list. Gordon is one misstep away from being permanently banned from the league. There are also a lot of mouths to feed for the New England Patriots. It is easy to understand why people get excited about Gordon. After all, he finished as the WR2 in 2013. The fact of the matter is, he has played so sparingly since then, that he has not gone over 41 receptions since that breakout season.
Safer options in this range include Tyler Boyd, Calvin Ridley, or even an injured A.J. Green. There is just too much risk to outweigh the potential reward here. Do not chase a big season from over five years ago and draft someone you will not stress over all season long.
This wraps up the AFC do not draft list. While all three of these players certainly have value, if you are a conservative owner, there are plenty of other options out there that will not drive you crazy on a week to week basis. If you find any of these players dropping a couple of rounds below their current ADP, by all means, pull the trigger on them. There is a cost-benefit in all things fantasy football.