Week 4 Sleepers And Busts
Week 4 and the dreaded bye weeks have begun. Fortunately for us, it is like a warm-up round and only two teams with not a lot of players we are counting on week in, week out on their rosters. We are losing the New York Jets and the San Francisco 49ers so unless you are a Le’Veon Bell or George Kittle owner, you might make it through round one of the byes unscathed. If you do rely on some of the 49ers and Jets or have lost starters due to injury or maybe have some underperforming stars your losing faith in. Whatever the case may be, the Week 4 Sleepers And Busts might be what you need to stem the tide. Here we go.
Will Dissly Vs The Arizona Cardinals
If you stopped watching the Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans Saints game towards the end when it became almost a 100% certainty the Saints would win. You might have missed a timeless touchdown catch from Seattle tight end Will Dissly. Literally, after two penalties on the defense, Russell Wilson hit Dissly for the TD on an untimed down with the clock at 00:00. The TD was Dissly’s fifth in seven career games and third in the last two weeks. Seattle will head south in Week 4 to take on the league’s tight end doormat, the Arizona Cardinals.
In three weeks, the Cardinals have allowed the number one fantasy performance to the tight end position every week this season. Greg Olsen, Mark Andrews, and rookie T.J. Hockinson all garnered 7+ targets, caught 6+ passes, produced over 75 yards with over 12.5 yards per reception, and scored at least 1 TD. Will Dissly gets the next crack at this revolving door.
|Week 3||Geg Olsen||TE||CAR||@||ARI||19.5 Standard||25.5 PPR Points||2 TD||7 Targets||6 Receptions||75 Yards||85.7 % Comp %||12.5 Y/R||10.7 Y/T|
|Week 2||Mark Andrews||TE||BAL||VS||ARI||17.2 Standard||25.2 PPR Points||1 TD||9 Targets||8 Receptions||112 Yards||88.9 % Comp%||14.0 Y/R||12.4 Y/T|
|Week 1||T.J. Hockenson||TE||DET||@||ARI||19.1 Standard||25.1 PPR Points||1 TD||9 Targets||6 Receptions||131 Yards||66.7 % Comp %||21.8 Y/R||14.5 Y/T|
Russell Wilson is coming off the first 40+ pass attempt game in the Brian Schottenheimer era and his first 50+ attempt game of his career. Seattle’s defense has not been what it was for a long time and we have really seen this in the past two weeks while they faced the Saints with Teddy Bridgewater and for the majority of their game with the Pittsburgh Steelers, rookie Mason Rudolph. They will be facing the fast-paced Cardinals offense that has the most passing attempts in the league. The game has some shootout potential and Dissly could be a major part of it. I am not sure much else needs to be said except start him with confidence.
Miles Sanders Vs The Green Bay Packers
Ok, let us try this again… Miles Sanders made the Week 2 Sleepers and Busts but unfortunately came up short. The rookie has been slowly coming on and there are signs that it is becoming his time in the backfield. we will start with the snap counts.
|Depth Chart||3||Week 1-||23||Week 2-||28||Week 3-||27||94 Total Snaps||31 Avg Snaps||30.7 % Snap Share|
As you can see above, Sanders has out-snapped the other backs in the first two weeks of the season and was out-snapped by Darren Sproles by 1 snap in Week 3. The Eagles trailed in much of their Week 3 matchup with the Detroit Lions and Sproles is one of the most effective pass-catching RBs even at his elevated age. The drop in snaps for Sanders might be a little alarming if not for the production. The Penn State product carried the ball 13 times for 53 yards, caught 2/4 targets for 73 more yards (126 total yards). He also adds in the kick return (54 yards in Week 3) game if you are in leagues that count return yards.
The Green Bay Packers started their season with a very good performance on the defensive side vs the run. Chicago totaled only 47 rushing yards but, the trio of backs on the Bears caught 15/18 targets for an additional 93 yards. Big-time production in PPR formats. Since then though, the results have been a little more favorable for opposing RBs. Week 2 saw the Packers take on Dalvin Cook and the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings RBs put up 181 yards and 1 TD on 25 carries and added an additional 37 yards with 3 receptions on 3 targets. Week 3 was Philip Lindsay and the Denver Broncos. Denver’s RBs had another big day vs the Packers with 144 yards and 2 TDs on 36 attempts rushing. They hauled in 8/10 targets for 59 more yards.
Sanders is coming off the most touches he has had in his young career (15) in a negative game script. It was the first time the Eagles offensive line had afforded Sanders the space to reach the 4 yards per attempt rushing mark. Jordan Howard is more of the “close out the game” type guy and Sproles, the opposite. Sanders is the back on the field that can do whatever needed.
Zach Pascal Vs The Oakland Raiders
This one will take some guts…
To say that the Indianapolis Colts have been a surprise following the retirement of Andrew Luck would be an understatement. Granted, there has not been as much fantasy value as we would have seen with Luck under center, the veteran moving on has not been the death nail most expected. Marlon Mack has been solid as can be, Parris Campbell has had a couple of moments and T.Y. Hilton has been the WR5 to this point. That is likely to change as Hilton reaggravated the quad that has given him issues leading up to the game. Hilton came through in the Week 3 matchup with 2 TDs but you could be without him for longer than a week.
“Hilton was limited with a quadriceps strain leading up to Sunday’s game against the Falcons. After a productive first half of play, Hilton limped to the sidelines. Seemingly a re-aggravation of his quad strain, Hilton missed the rest of the game. Re-injury typically heightens a team’s caution going forward. A completely torn quadriceps would end Hilton’s season. I think we could see him miss a couple of games as the team exercises caution.” Ethan Turner
Who Gets The Work
So, who is the guy that fills in for T.Y? Deon Cain has a season-high of 2 receptions for 35 yards and caught 1/3 targets in Week 3 for 10 yards. Parris Campbell has scored a TD but also saw a season-high 3 targets for 24 yards in Week 3. Chester Rogers started the game and did not see a target. Zach Pascal, the third year Colts wideout saw his first action of the season in week 3 and caught a TD pass in the first quarter from 18 yards out (Redzone target) and later hauled in a 35 yard grab on a third and 1 later in the game. It is a small sample and by nowhere near perfect, but here are the splits for Pascal with and without T.Y. Hilton. Pascal did not score but all his numbers were up.
The Colts will battle with the Oakland Raiders in Week 4. Oakland’s defense has been a lot of things but good is not exactly one of them. Oakland will travel east and this is regularly tough for a west coast team in the early game on Sundays. So far in three games this season, the Raiders have allowed 5 receivers have put up either 100 yards, a TD, or both. Their defensive backfield is battered and bruised. Oakland allows 45.2 PPR points a game to the WR position, one of seven teams to allow over 45 PPR points per game to receivers. They allow 14.1 PPR points a game to TEs (12th).
They are a little better in terms of facing RBs (13th in standard/ 10th in PPR). In the first two games of the 2019 season, the Raiders allowed fewer than 100 yards rushing in each game and just 116 in total. Week 3 was considerably different as Dalvin Cook and company went for 211 yards rushing but only 2 rushing TDs in total. The best plan of attack could still be through the air to the WR position. Pascal could be a beneficiary.
Aaron Jones Vs The Philadelphia Eagles
Green Bay Packers running back, Aaron Jones has had a solid start to 2019 but recently the fear that all truthers had has been coming true. Jamaal Williams has been getting a steadily increasing workload in the last few weeks. Jones’ season has largely relied on touchdowns. In Week 1, he was held in check with just 14 touches for 39 yards. Week 2 was much better with 27 touches for 150 yards and a TD. Week 3 was a mixture of both. Jones only had 11 touches for just 23 total yards but saved his day with 2 TDs. At the same time, Williams had 14 touches for 86 total yards. Williams also out-snapped Jones for the first time in 2019.
|Week 1-||26||Week 2-||35||Week 3-||35||96 Total Snaps||32 Avg Snaps||1 TDs|
For the second straight week, one of the bust candidates is a running back taking on the Eagles. Philidelphia’s stout rush defense was every bit as advertised in Week 3. Kerryon Johnson got his first rushing TD but on a day he toted the ball 20 times for 36 yards. This, following showings of less than 60 total yards rushing from the Atlanta Falcons and the Washington Redskins. Johnson may have gotten a TD, but production has been hard to come by. The way to attack the Eagles is through the air, to the WR position.
Green Bay Defensive Ranks Vs each Position (per Pro Football Reference)
- RBs – 18,9 PPR Points per Game (5th)
- TEs – 10.8 PPR Points per Game (14th, 1.2 points behind 11th)
- QBs – 22.5 Points per Game (24th)
- WRs – 50.9 PPR Points per Game (29th)
Rodgers, Adams, MVS, and the boys should eat in Week 4 but Aaron Jones may find points hard to come by.
Josh Allen vs The New England Patriots
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are enjoying a 3-0 record and a first-place tie with the team they will welcome into their building in Week 4. The Bills have surprised up to this point but the celebrating might just be halted for a week as Buffalo will take on the New England Patriots and their number one defense in the league. They have not taken on the toughest schedule but the Patriots have put up some staggering numbers on the defensive side of the ball.
- New England has allowed 597 total yards in 2019. 27 teams have allowed more passing yards than the Patriots. The Miami Dolphins have given up 7 more rushing yards than New England.
- The Pats have given up 17 points to opposing offenses. The next closest team has allowed 39.
- They have allowed the fewest points per play in the league by far (0.1). Second place belongs to the Packers with 0.18.
- 0.19 first downs per play rank first in the league by 0.06.
- New England allows a point every 35.12 yards given up. The next closest (Green Bay) allows a point every 28.14 yards and only five teams in total have a number of 20 or more here.
- There have been zero TDs scored against the Patriot defense thus far.
- Number one in completions, total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, points allowed, scoring % (2.4%, no other team is below 16.7%). There is more that you can check out by clicking the link below.
Below is a tweet about just how good the Patriots defense has been for fantasy players.
If ya play in leagues with dst, the New England Patriots defense is currently the number 12 overall player in standard fantasy (22 in PPR) with 9.4 fewer points than Tom Brady who is tied for fifth with Deshaun Watson. Just like we thought. pic.twitter.com/cQU9gQZ3il
— David Willsey FF (@willson8tor) September 24, 2019
Allen’s Impressive Finish
Needless to say, despite being at home for the matchup, it likely will not be easy sledding for Buffalo and the Bills Mafia. Below you can see Josh Allen’s final five games of 2018 in which he ranked as the quarterback 1. New England was the only team to keep Allen from either reaching 100 yards rushing or scoring a rushing TD, and the only team to keep him under 17.8 fantasy points.
|BUF||@||MIA||18 Comp||33 Att.||231 Yards||2 TDs||2 INTs||71.7 QB Rate||9 Rush Att.||135 Yards||15 YPC||0 TDs||29.03 MS of Rush||26.7 Fan Points|
Allen is a highly dangerous running threat and the way to combat this on passing downs is to play a lot of zone coverage which allows the defenders to keep their eyes to the QB. New England did this to perfection last season and likely will employ it heavily again. This means Josh Allen must beat the Pats with his arm.
It has improved since last season but because the coaches in Buffalo and Allen himself have altered his playing style. It has not quite been bombs away as it was at times in 2018. Allen is attempting shorter passes and has been able to complete them which explains the spike in completion % this season.
Josh Allen has a better comp% (64.1%) than Aaron Rodgers👀, Carson Wentz, Matt Stafford, kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Cam Newton, Baker Mayfied, Big Ben, 13 other qualified QBs in 2019…
8 QBs currently have a comp% >70%.
1. D Prescott 74.5%
2. G Minshew 73.9%…
— David Willsey FF (@willson8tor) September 24, 2019
The longer you throw downfield, the less likely it is to be caught. Last season, the then-rookie completed the longest ball in the air for the whole season (63.9). According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Allen has only attempted 3 passes longer than 30 yards through the first two weeks of the season. He had a game last season in which there were 5 such passes and completed the longest ball in the air all year. Through three games so far Allen is tied for the eighth shortest (42.5) such pass in 2019. The second-year QB may prove the doubters wrong once again but smart money would be on the Pats D holding him down.
Allen Robinson Vs The Minnesota Vikings
This is another one where the matchup just does not leave a good feeling in your stomach. The Minnesota Vikings are the fifth-ranked defense in the league following Week 3. They have allowed 5 total TDs to WRs but only one WR on the year has eclipsed 65 yards receiving. Devante Adams had 106 scoreless yards in Week 2. With Xavier Rhodes potentially giving Robinson a lot more attention then he would like and Mitch Trubisky’s propensity to stare down receivers, there could be a lot of frustration here in Week 4.
Week 1, Rhodes may have allowed Julio Jones to score but he also only allowed him to gain 31 total yards. Adams did get 106 total receiving yards but he did have Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. Week 3, Rhodes locked down Tyrell Williams, who in no way is on the same level of the other 2 or even Robinson but he is still one of the fastest WRs in the league and has shown the ability to produce like a low-end WR1 in fantasy. Williams did score late but on only 29 yards receiving.
This is as much about the cornerback matchup as it is about the quarterback. Mitch Trubisky has been sub=par until we saw him hit Taylor Gabriel for 3 TDs in Week 3. Trubisky has been sub-par against the Vikings through 4 total games and I would not bet on it changing in week 4.
Four Matchups W/ The Vikings
- 2018-18/26, 163 yards and 0 TD/INT, 3/16 on the ground
- 2018-20/31, 165 yards,1 TD, 2 INT, 10/43 on the ground
- 2017-20/36, 178 yards and 0 TD/INT, 1 carry for 2 yards
- 2017-12/25, 128 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 3/22 on the ground
It is hard for any receiver to produce with their quarterback putting up stats like that. With the Bears having a great defense themselves, the likelihood that the game becomes a blowout and forces either side to “have” to pass is slim. Robinson has a relatively small sample size against the Vikings but the results have not been promising either. 4 receptions on 10 targets for 57 yards combined is not going to get it done.
Wrapping It Up
Hopefully, your team has not been ravaged by injury so far this season, they seem like they are happening more and more nowadays. Add in the beginning of the bye weeks. Needless to say, for some of us, Sleeper and Busts can be vital right now. Finding the right play to help you get the victory over a team sitting at 3-0 heading into Week 4 can be one of the best feelings as a fantasy gamer. If you are a struggling team, now is the time!