Week 4 Mailbag
You all know that championships aren’t won at the draft. In season decisions are what makes a Fantasy Champion. But sometimes you need a little extra helping hand in making those decisions. That’s what we here at FFStatistics live for. So keep those questions coming our way and we will keep answering them. So without further adieu, let’s get into the week 4 mailbag.
Ross Vs. Fuller
John Ross or Will Fuller in PPR this week!
— Alex William (@robochuck20ten) September 25, 2019
This is something I never would have imagined in August saying, but you should start Ross over Fuller this week.
The risk is real with Ross. I understand that 54% of his total yards came in the first game of the season. But Fuller has been far more disappointing this season since the addition of Kenny Stills to the team. Both Ross and Fuller have similar snap numbers, however, Ross is leading in every other opportunity number. The third-year receiver has nine more targets, a higher target share, 1.82 more yards-per-target and Fuller has yet to find the endzone this season.
The kicker in this equation though are the matchups. The Bengals are matched up against Pittsburgh who is 18th in CS for points allowed to WRs and are averaging 40.56 fantasy points to the WR position. Will Fuller and the Texans are facing Carolina who ranks 20th in CS and is averaging only 29.63 fantasy points to the position.
A Strong Flex
A lot of these names mentioned do pique interest. Wayne Gallman appears poised for a high volume role and has possibly the best matchup he will see in his short stint as the lead back. Curtis Samuel looks to be in line for another high target outing against the Houston Texans. D.J. Chark is someone who is sure to make you wish your league had more flex spots. He appears to have a high enough floor to consider as a matchup based, upside WR2 or WR3 option. This week he has a tough test against a Broncos team that is likely to treat him as the team’s number one receiver. Then there is Sterling Shepard who has one more week before Golden Tate returns and is another rock-solid option with Washington on tap.
But none of those players have the of Either Josh Jacobs or Chris Carson, who can each see 15+ carries and five+ targets apiece.
Josh Jacobs is someone I would consider a weekly starter based on the names listed. He is second in the league in yards after contact and eighth in rushing yards. With Jon Gruden publicly stating he is going to get his rookie back more involved in the passing game, Jacobs appears set to see his weekly targets spike. The Colts have surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Chris Carson was likely drafted to start for your team and still looks like one of your best options this week against a Cardinals team allowing 104 rushing yards and 4.3 receptions to opposing running backs. Roll with Carson until Penny takes over as the starter.
With the workload both of these running backs expect to see, they are easy plug and plays.
Is Darwin the “natural selection?
Ya man!! Here's my team, standard league.
1) Bench A.Jones and plug in Samuel for my flex?
2) Drop Darwin for D.Williams or get a WR like Dorsett?
— M🅰️rKo 🇭🇷🇨🇦 (@CroWarrior1978) September 25, 2019
After getting a ton of late offseason hype, Darwin Thompson has done very little to start the season. Despite injuries up the Chiefs depth chart, Thompson doesn’t seem to be in line to make a big impact.
Last week, many expected Thompson to finally get his chance to step up and showcase his skills with starter Damien Williams out. Instead, Darrell Williams saw the majority of snaps in the game, LeSean McCoy scored two touchdowns, and Thompson was left playing just 5 total snaps on the day. At this moment, it’s unlikely Darwin Thompson ever truly commands 15 touches in this backfield on a weekly basis. While the Chiefs offense is certainly one you want pieces of, running back fliers need to be ones that can command a 60%+ opportunity share if called upon. Darwin Thompson doesn’t fit that mold, and thus I would be comfortable dropping him in typical redraft leagues.
As for who to pick up, Phillip Dorsett is a great add.
Catching 13 of his 14 targets for over 180 yards and three touchdowns, Dorsett is already on pace for a career year. With Antonio Brown’s release and Julian Edelman’s injury, Dorsett is a candidate for a consistent six to ten targets per game. As one of the fastest receivers in the NFL, the Dorsett-Brady connection has the chance to be fantastic the rest of the season. I would be confident starting Dorsett as a FLEX play moving forward, which is particularly important during bye weeks. While Darwin might have more upside if everything goes right, Dorsett is a piece you can plug and play into your lineup during the most critical time of the year – bye-week season. Other potential waiver wire adds I would consider over Darwin are Paul Richardson or Jaylen Samuels, who are both owned in less than 30% of ESPN leagues.
Dumpster Diving for Tight Ends
Deep waiver wire question, 14 team PPR league. Nick Vannett TE or Benjamin Watson TE? Who has the bigger upside?
— Liz Corbin (@Lizzer922) September 25, 2019
I think the obvious answer is also the right answer here. Ben Watson, even at 38 years old, has the higher upside.
You can’t imagine either player is going to be relying on PPR points or yards to buoy their fantasy relevancy. Either player is going to be relegated to the “touchdown-dependent” category of tight end and the Patriots are just plainly the better offense. After three weeks, New England is averaging 35.3 points-per-game, which is good for 2nd best in the NFL. Pittsburgh… well, they average 16.3, which ranks 27th, and Mason Rudolph did nothing to boost my confidence in his first start of the season.
In last week’s game with Rudolph under center, neither Vance McDonald nor Xavier Grimble recorded more than two targets in the game. Now Nick Vannett has to come in and learn the offensive system mid-season, for a team that is struggling on that side of the ball, with a less than stellar quarterback leading the attack.
Or you can have the TE for Tom Brady, who has as many passing touchdowns on the season as the entire Pittsburgh Steelers team has scored, and an offense that has the second most passing yards-per-game at this point in the season.
On a side note, see if Chris Herndon is available in your league. I would rather roll the dice on him than either of these other two players.
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