Week 5 Sleepers and Busts
We are a quarter of the way through the NFL season and to say the least, there have been some surprises. Several under-performing studs and about as many late-round picks and waiver wire adds picking up their slack. Fear not though. Even if your team is 0-4, there is still a chance to make it to the playoffs. It is going fast but we still have 9-10 weeks of the regular season left which is plenty of time to make some waiver moves, navigate some trades, and make the right start/ sit calls. Oh yes, and avoid those weekly busts and find those weekly sleepers. It is another round of bye weeks to add a wrench to all the injuries as well. Here are the Week 5 Sleepers And Busts.
Week 5 Sleepers
Tyler Eifert vs The Arizona Cardinals
This one is all about the matchup. We saw another example in Week 4 of why the Arizona Cardinals are the NFL’s tight end door matt. Will Dissly was one of the Week 4 sleepers and he did not disappoint with 7 receptions on 8 targets for 57 yards and a touchdown. Even the returning Seahawk Luke Willson had 2 receptions on 2 targets for 26 yards. In the previous three weeks, Arizona allowed even more.
Weekly Production Allowed
Data courtesy of FFStatistics Yearly Stats App
- – TJ Hockinson 6 Rec/ 9 Tar, 131 yards, 1 TD, TE1 (Jesse James 1/1, 15, 0) Total – 7/10, 146, 1 (27.6 PPR Fantasy Points)
- – Mark Andrews 8/9, 112, 1, TE1 (Nick Boyle 1/3, 14, 0 – Hayden Hurst 1/1, 1, 1) Total – 10/13, 129, 2 (34.9 PPR Fantasy Points)
- – Greg Olsen 6/7, 75, 2, TE1 (25.5 PPR Fantasy Points)
- – Will Dissly 7/8, 57, 1, TE2 (Luke Willson 2/2, 26,0) Total – 9/10, 83, 1 (23.3 PPR Fantasy Points)
As you can see in the Tweet below, the tight end 1 on each team is averaging 23.62 PPR fantasy points and as a whole, they are allowing 29.3 per game and second place is not even close (Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21.1)
In 4 games, the Arizona Cardinals are allowing an avg of 6.75 rec, 93.75 yards, and 1.25 TDs to the TE1 of their opponent. Coming games
Week 5 Eifert (stream)
8 Cook(potential stream)
12 Rams (meh)
— David Willsey FF (@willson8tor) September 30, 2019
So, now the question for Week 5. Who is next? Tyler Eifert, come on down! Now we are long past the days when Tyler Eifert was thought of as a weekly start but this really is not due to a lack of talent or a change in the situation. The man just can not stay on the field. Never the biggest yardage threat but always an endzone threat and that is ok for a TE streamer. Especially with this matchup. Eifert has 9 receptions on 12 targets for 54 yards and a TD. He could total that in Week 5.
Arizona is currently allowing 29.3 PPR points a game to the tight end position. Tampa bay is allowing 21.1. (3rd worst Colts 18.1) The last time a team gave up more than 18.7 points a game to tight ends was the 2013 Cardinals (20.6). 2018 no team over 16.5
— David Willsey FF (@willson8tor) October 1, 2019
Robby Anderson @ The Philadelphia Eagles
Now you did not draft Robby Anderson to be a streamer but this is where we are at right now. If there is a week for a Jets receiver to go off without Sam Darnold, Week 5 might be it. The Jets are going to take on the Philadelphia Eagles and the putrid pass defense. The Eagles are the only team in the league allowing over 50 points a week to wide receivers. Now we still do not have a firm date on Sam Darnold’s return and this is the type of thing where he just needs to recover meaning there really is not a treatment for it like we would see with other injury issues but he has been cleared for non-contact drills which is a positive sign.
This would ultimately be the best outcome for Robby Anderson’s value in Week 5 as they have developed a decent little connection but there is a chance even if Darnold does not return. In Week 3, New York faces the New England Patriots and their defense that has allowed a total of zero passing o and 1 rushing TD as you will see below when we hit on some busts. Anderson did though haul in 4/6 targets for 81 yards in Week 2 with a backup QB and even though the production was not there, he did lead the pass catchers in receptions with 3 in Week 4. Anderson had Patriots stud cornerback Stephon Gilmore in his pocket the majority of the night. It is forgivable.
Anderson is running a route on 96.8% of quarterback dropbacks. This lets us know that he is out on the field all the time. With the Philadelphia Eagles boasting a run defense that has allowed a combined 250 total yards rushing to all backs they have faced (62.5 per game), they will likely need to pass the ball a lot to keep pace with a fairly high-powered Eagles offense. This, fortunately, has worked out well for a lot of receivers thus far in 2019.
Data courtesy of FFStatistics Yearly Stats App
- Terry McLaurin (5 receptions/ 7 targets, 125 yards, 1 TD), Trey Quinn (4/6, 33,1)
- Julio Jones (5/10, 106, 2), Calvin Ridley (8/10, 105, 1)
- Marvin Jones (6/9, 101, 1)
- Davante Adams (10/15, 180, 0), Geronimo Allison (3/4, 52, 1)
The Jets did not look good the last time we saw them but they have had a week to try and get things dialed in and there is still a slight chance that Darnold could play but we need to watch his status closely moving forward. The Detroit Lions and the Miami Dolphins are on bye this week so you might be out Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, or maybe Preston Williams in deeper leagues. Maybe you are going to be without Davante Adams. The Jets could luck their way into some scoring opportunities but this is a boom/ bust play that could pay off if you are in need of a WR.
Andy Dalton vs The Arizona Cardinals
Well, we talked the tight end, now let us look at the guy throwing him the ball. Andy Dalton failed to produce in Week 4 against the Pittsburgh Steelers but by now we should know not to start Dalton in prime time games. Much like Tyler Eifert, this one is about the matchup. The Cardinals are not historically bad against quarterbacks like they are against the tight end position but in 2019, they are still pretty bad.
Arizona vs Quarterbacks (Allowed)
Data courtesy of Pro Football Reference
- Yards Passing- 1,158 (25th)
- Yard Per Attempt – 8.51 (27th)
- Yard Per Completion – 12.59 (25th)
- Yards Rushing – 148 (32nd)
- Touchdowns Passing – 10 (31st)
- Fantasy Points – 105.1 (31st), 26.3 per game
Clearly, as you can see above, the opportunity is likely to be there for Dalton. Arizona has allowed the fourth-most points (115) and the second-most total yards (1,670) in the league. Miami is the worst in both but they have been comically bad. In Week 3, the Cardinals allowed the undrafted free agent, Kyle Allen, to throw for 4 TDs on just 19 completions. Not only is the Cardinals defense bad, but the Bengals are also. Cincinnati has allowed the fifth-most points (110) following their Week 4 defeat at the hands of the Steelers. The game could have some sneaky shootout potential. Now after the two teams combined for 13 points in Week 4, this may seem unlikely but both offenses will be facing much easier opponents.
It may surprise you but Dalton has the sixth most yards passing after four games (1,150) and through the first three games of the season, the Red Rifle was actually the number 12 QB. He has two top-12 finishes and one QB13-24 finish per FFStatistics Yearly Data App. Like I mentioned above, Week 4 was just another in a long line of failures in prime time games. Look for a bounce-back in a much easier matchup.
Week 5 Busts
Le’Veon Bell @ The Philadelphia Eagles
Yes, we have two players from the same team on each side of the sleeper and bust list for this coming week. As bad as the Jets Week 5 matchup, the Philadelphia Eagles, have been against the pass, they have been equally as good against the run. The Eagles run defense has been legit for years and so far in 2019, they have not disappointed.
Eagles Defense Vs The Pass/ Rush
- Washington Redskins – 370 yards passing/ 28 yards rushing
- Atlanta Falcons – 310/ 57
- Detroit Lions – 201/ 86
- Green Bay Packers – 414/ 77
The difference is stark and it is not like they have faced a bunch of nobodies. They have held Derrius Guice, Chris Thompson, Devonta Freeman, Kerryon Johnson, and Aaron Jones. Bell is on a slightly higher level than these guys but they are no slouches. For three straight weeks, one of the busts on my list has been the running back facing the Eagles for these exact reasons (viewable here) and outside of a few short-yardage scores, the process has been sound.
It is a very small sample size but using the FFStatistics Splits Tool to look at the production of Bell with and without Sam Darnold and the difference is considerable. A pace of almost 90 more PPR points with his second-year quarterback is not really surprising but this is the hand that we have been dealt. Do not be surprised when the Eagles try to completely negate Bell from the offense and put all the pressure on the Jet’s third-string QB, Luke Falk. Do not be shocked when they succeed at this. Now Bell is a special type of player and there is always a chance that he breaks one-off or catches a few in a row and has a decent day but with the situation surrounding him, the outlook is not so good.
Nick Chubb @ The San Francisco 49ers
If you had 5 guesses at which defense allows the fewest fantasy points to running backs, do you think you’d have guessed the San Fransisco 49ers? That is right, the Niners are the number one defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to the RB position. 13.8. That is the total amount San Fran gives up which is the only team allowing fewer than 15 and are 1.2 points better than the next best team (Tampa Bay Buccaneers). Now there is no way you can sit Chubb but tempered expectations might be in order.
Weekly Production Allowed
- Tampa Bay – 21 Attempts Rushing, 7 receptions/ 10 targets, 63 yards, 0 TDs
- Cincinnati 17, 23, 4/8, 17, 0 TDs
- Pittsburgh – 16, 49, 4/4, 14, 0 TDs
Week 4 Performance
Only the Miami Dolphins (8) have given up more touchdowns to the running back position than the 7 given up by the Baltimore Ravens through 4 weeks. No team has allowed as many as Ravens on the ground (6). The Bengals, Packers, Lions, and Broncos have allowed 6 total each.
— David Willsey FF (@willson8tor) October 1, 2019
Chubb’s line in Week 4 against the proud Baltimore Ravens defense is impressive. 20 rush attempts for 165 yards and 3 TDs with 3 receptions on 4 targets for an additional 18 yards. How are we going to temper expectations after a game like that? The Ravens have now actually allowed the second-most touchdowns to the RB position (6 rush/ 1 rec). This might surprise as much as the 49ers being the best. San Fransisco has not just faced chumps either. James Conner, Joe Mixon, and a serviceable back in Peyton Barber. Take Barber out and you have a lot of people’s RB2 tier from the pre-draft process. Chubb will likely still be ok with his increased passing work (14 receptions on 19 targets) but do not expect a repeat of last week.
The Entire Washington Redskins Team vs The New England Patriots
Data courtesy of FFStatistics Defense App
(Prior to Week 4 finish, New England has since allowed 1 rushing TD to Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen)
Are They This Good, Really?
We will not need to take up a lot of time with this one. Glance up and look at the Washington Redskins Week 5 opponent, the New England Patriots defense, in comparison to 24 other teams. The difference is astounding. The Patriots have been elite against every position thus far and yes, they have faced some poor competition until Week 4, but they are still performing better than those teams other opponents and they completely shut down a Steelers offense still led by Ben Roethlisberger, not Mason Rudolph.
Patriots Defensive Performances
(Patriots defensive stats/ Their opponent’s stats from other games)
- Pittsburgh Steelers – 15 first downs allowed, 276 yards passing, 32 yards rushing, 1 forced turnover, 3 points allowed
- Miami Dolphins – 11, 142, 42, 4, 0 points allowed
- New York Jets – 6, 69, 36, 1, o points allowed (Jets – 14 points on defensive scores)
- Buffalo Bills – 23, 240, 135, 4, 10 points allowed (the first TD allowed by Patriots defense in 2019)
- Washington Redskins – QB (Dwayne Haskins, Colt McCoy, Case Keenum) RB (Adrian Peterson, Chris Thompson, Wendell Smallwood), WR (Terry Mclaurin, Paul Richardson, Trey Quinn), TE (Vernon Davis, Jeremy Sprinkle)
New England might not be as good as we have seen but this game is likely not the one where they fall on their faces. Washington has some okay passing weapons but who is going to be throwing them the ball? One of two well-traveled vets or the rookie? Maybe Chris Thompson can catch a few passes but is that the hill you want to die on? You may have to play some of these guys due to bye weeks or injury but you should look for almost any other option that you can find. I would not try to get cute and find a good matchup because you will be looking for a while. Sit all Redskins in Week 5.
As I mentioned above, even if your team is struggling and has an under 500 record, the year is not over. Do not start to ignore your teams. Firstly, there is so much time left. Secondly, championships are not won at the draft anyways. They are won in-season with all the moves and choices we make in who to play. Oh yes, and thirdly, luck. Lots of luck! Point being, keep at it. If your team is killing it with a 3-1 or 4-0 record, do not get comfortable. Always be looking to improve your team and your process. Hopefully, the Week 5 Sleepers And Busts can help you all out. Good luck everyone.