FFStatistics Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em Week Six
Welcome to the FFStatistics Week Six, Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em article. Last week’s article finished with a 50.5% hit rate, which was a little lower than expected. The transparency wrap-up can be found here.
As we head into week six, please note that the following teams are on bye. The Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Oakland Raiders, and the Indianapolis Colts. It is the first week with more than two teams on bye and therefore roster strategy becomes even more important. Here we are going to look at some solid players that should help fill gaps in rosters. If needy teams are looking for some waiver ideas, our weekly article can be found here.
Let’s jump right into the action and look at who should start and just as importantly, who should sit for week six.
FFStatistics Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em Week Six
Quarterbacks
Start: Gardner Minshew vs. New Orleans
The mustachioed icon of Jacksonville has been entertaining to follow the last few weeks. Aside from the charismatic charm that the masses have fallen head-over-heels for, he has proven to be a consistent game-manager-plus type of fantasy option. Since week three, Gardner Minshew has finished as the QB17, QB15, and QB8 respectively. While he is not setting the fantasy world ablaze, he has been a serviceable option in two QB leagues.
This week the Jaguars travel to New Orleans to face the Saints, who are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Saints have allowed eight passing touchdowns and four rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks. Minshew is a solid super-flex option this week but is also in the conversation for streaming purposes as a bye-week fill in. Minshew is a good safe-floor option with great upside against a beatable defense.
Start: Kyler Murray vs. Atlanta
To start the season Kyler Murray has shown flashes of how good he can be. He has also shown plenty of rookie mistakes. Despite the paltry four passing touchdowns to four interceptions, he has remained fairly fantasy relevant with a couple of high yardage games. His rushing ability keeps his floor safe.
The matchup makes this a good week to roll Murray out there as high-ceiling play. The Falcons defense is depleted and is allowing the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Deshaun Watson dismantled them for over 400 yards and five touchdowns last week. In fact, they have allowed multiple passing touchdowns to three of the quarterbacks they have faced. Only Kirk Cousins and Carson Wentz threw for only one touchdown pass. But, both of those quarterbacks rushed for another one.
In five weeks the Falcons have allowed 14 total touchdowns to the quarterback position. This game is set up nicely for Murray to have that big, complete fantasy game so many have been waiting for. He has legitimate top-ten appeal this week against a roughed up defense.
Sit: Matthew Stafford vs. Green Bay
Baker Mayfield was the first candidate for the sit this week. His play thus far has been bustworthy considering his draft cost. However, most fantasy owners are likely already sitting Mayfield until he shows up for a stretch of games. So, this might, at first glance, seem like a strange sit candidate. Matthew Stafford has had a solid start to the fantasy season. He has scored 23-plus fantasy points in two of his first four starts and thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of them.
The Green Bay Packers defense is legit, ladies and gentlemen.
Through the first five weeks, only one quarterback has thrown for more than 230 yards and only two have thrown for more than one score. This defense turned around quickly. The Packers have allowed six passing touchdowns and reeled in seven interceptions while causing three fumbles from opposing quarterbacks. Stafford may not finish with a complete dud in this game, but him finishing outside the top-15 at the position is a real possibility. Outside of super-flex formats, he is a sit for me this week.
Running Backs
Start: Mark Ingram vs. Cincinnati
As the season has progressed veteran back Mark Ingram has settled in as the primary running back in the Ravens offense. His broader skill-set has worked well for a team that wants to run the ball.
Since week two, Ingram has dominated the snap count between the running backs. He is logging double-digit carry counts in each contest and has six rushing touchdowns through the first five weeks.
The Bengals have allowed everyone but rowdy fans to score on them this season. They are allowing the second-most fantasy points to running backs. Nine total touchdowns have been scored against them so far. Nine.
Ingram’s goal-line role and ability to catch passes makes him an easy top-ten option this week. He should be started in all formats and looks appealing at his price point in DFS games.
Start: Adrian Peterson vs. Miami
There is not much good going on in Redskins territory recently. The carousel of quarterbacks, leaky defense, and recent 5 a.m. firing of their head coach all point to frustration for fans.
Most weeks, the only recommended Redskin players to start for fantasy are Terry McLaurin and Chris Thompson and the latter is almost specifically tied to full PPR leagues. This week the Redskins travel to Miami and face the most generous run defense in the league.
There is not really a lot to talk about here. If there is a week that Adrian Peterson can be comfortably started, it is this one. Expect Peterson to get fed about as much as he can handle. He is a high-end RB3/Flex play with upside in a cupcake matchup.
Sit: Miles Sanders vs. Minnesota
Jordan Howard has put together a couple of strong outings and actually performed fairly well in what has been asked of him. However, the more complete back in this offense is Miles Sanders. For those owners who are waiting for the big breakout game from Sanders, spoiler alert; it will not be this week.
The Vikings run defense has been stout and has only allowed one 100-plus yard rushing game this season. In fact, only one running back (Aaron Jones) has scored a rushing touchdown against this squad so far.
Miles Sanders should take the majority role in this offense at some point, but it cannot be expected this week in a brutal matchup. Outside of a desperation flex, Sanders should be benched this week for any better option.
Wide Receivers
Start: Dede Westbrook vs. New Orleans
There is no doubt that D.J. Chark has emerged with Minshew under center. While he has become the first read for Minshew, Dede Westbrook has remained steadily involved. The speedy slot-receiver has had 40-plus yards or a touchdown in four of the last five games.
What makes Westbrook such an intriguing play this week is the opponent. The Saints are allowing sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. That being said, Marshon Lattimore is a talented cornerback. He could not contain Deandre Hopkins week one but otherwise managed to keep Brandin Cooks, Amari Cooper, and Mike Evans relatively quiet. Expect Lattimore to be working on Chark through most of this contest.
Most of the damage done against the Saints have come from the slot receivers. Week two, Cooper Kupp finished with 120 yards. Tyler Lockett gashed them for 154 and one touchdown week three. Week five Chris Godwin finished with 125 yards and two scores.
The Saints are weak against the slot. Westbrook primarily lines up from the slot and should see a bigger than normal game this week. This Westbrook has a fairly safe WR3/Flex floor but could be in line for his best game of the young season this week.
Start: Michael Gallup vs. New York Jets
In the three games he has played, Michael Gallup is averaging 9.67 targets and 113 receiving yards. The one-two punch of Amari Cooper and Gallup has kept defenses guessing and allowed Dak Prescott to put up solid numbers on a weekly basis.
The New York Jets are only surrendering the twelfth-most fantasy points to receivers this season. With the expected focus to be on Cooper, Gallup is lay-up as a high-end WR3/low-end WR2 and should be started in full PPR formats.
Sit: Corey Davis vs. Denver
The value of Corey Davis is locked at the hip to Marcus Mariota. Mariota’s inconsistent play limits Davis’ upside on a weekly basis. Make no mistake, Davis is a talented NFL receiver. Through the first five weeks, Davis is averaging 4 targets and 40.2 yards per contest.
The Broncos are currently allowing the 4th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Only two wide receivers have finished with receiving touchdowns on the year. Davis is cringe-worthy desperation play this week and should be benched for any better option.
Tight Ends
Start: Austin Hooper vs. Arizona
Austin Hooper is this season’s version of George Kittle. He is having a breakout kind of start and approaching an every-week starter status for fantasy purposes. Through the first five weeks he is averaging 8.4 targets and just over 72 yards per contest.
The Cardinals are allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Hooper should easily finish among the top-six at the position this week and should be started in all formats.
Sit: O.J. Howard vs. Carolina
There are few who were higher on O.J. Howard coming into the 2019 season than yours truly. If Bruce Arians has shown us anything, it is that tight ends are not part of his offensive gameplan. Through five weeks, Howard has a disappointing 14 targets rendering only 141 yards and zero touchdowns.
Carolina is allowing the fourth-fewest points to tight ends. Between the tough matchup and the lack of involvement, Howard should remain benched this week.
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