Week 6 Mailbag
Everyone could use a helping hand every now and then when it comes to fantasy football. That’s what we here at FFStatistics live for. Digging into the data and coming up with the objective answers to the tough questions. So keep those questions coming our way and we will keep answering them. Let’s dive into the week 6 mailbag.
Run with Royce Freeman or Fly With Miles Sanders?
Royce Freeman or Miles Sanders? .5ppc + PPR. Thanks!
— Alex William (@robochuck20ten) October 10, 2019
Freeman and Sanders are both solid contributors to running back by committee offenses. To date, Freeman has had a slight edge in rush efficiency, while Sanders has the edge in receiving efficiency. There’s really not much to differentiate these two running backs and their opportunities. If there’s one differentiating factor, it’s the Royce Freeman has played about 55-percent of Denver’s snaps each week, while Sanders has yet to eclipse 49-percent in any game this season.
In week six, both have difficult matchups. The Eagles travel to a play a Vikings team that has allowed the 4th fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Meanwhile, Freeman and the Broncos take on the Tennessee Titans, who have allowed the 7th fewest points per game allowed to opposing running backs in 2019. While these teams rank similarly, the Tennessee matchup is better than it appears on the surface. The Titans have allowed 4.55 yards per carry and an average of 6.4 receptions per game, which is 8th most in the NFL. Freeman, who has been solid in the receiving game this season, should have the opportunity to do so on Sunday. Given his higher rushing volume ceiling and usage as a pass-catcher against this Titans defense, he would be my play this week.
Is Ekeler a Sell?
Should I trade Ekeler for Mack or Jacobs?
— todd hirsch (@mobyhirsch) October 11, 2019
Even though Melvin Gordon we know is coming back and going to eat into Ekeler’s value, it is still hard to pivot off a guy who is currently the 3rd overall running back in 0.5 PPR scoring formats. But if we are really to believe that the Chargers are going to use Gordon and Ekeler in anything similar to how they have in the past, then strike the iron while it’s hot.
Ekeler is currently playing on 70-percent of the offensive snaps. But in 2018 he averaged only 41-percent when splitting time with Gordon. Looking ahead, the Chargers backfield has challenging matchups coming up against Tennesse, Chicago, Jacksonville, and Minnesota. As well as their bye week yet to come. With that in mind selling now likely is the best bet you have to capitalize on his current value.
So should you target Marlon Mack or Josh Jacobs? Both are currently on their bye weeks. So if you get either one of them, you are essentially buying an extra week. Always helpful. Mack is averaging more playing time, but the chart above also shows a clear and steady uptick in Josh Jacobs. Jacobs is also proving to be far more efficient than Mack on the season.
Using the Yearly Data App we can see that Jacobs is outperforming Mack in both rushing-points-per-opportunity as well as receiving-points-per-opportunity. The Raider’s remaining schedule also appears to be the most running back-friendly of the three players in question. Taking a look at the bigger picture, Josh Jacobs is the main target I would be going after.
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