Week 9 Mailbag
With the Falcons, Bengals, Rams, and Saints all on a bye and the Fantasy Playoffs rapidly approaching Fantasy GM’s are having more tough decisions to make. It’s time to make some tough choices and let go of some biases, going both ways. At this point in the season, there is plenty of data to tell us the story and that might mean starting some seemingly gross options at times. But don’t worry, the staff here at FFStatistics can comb through the noise and help you with that info. So keep those questions coming and in the meantime, let’s get into the Week 9 Mailbag.
Hey… Nice Tight End!
Mark Andrews vs Jonnu Smith
— M. (@mcidd4) October 31, 2019
To start off the Week 9 mailbag I got a challenging one. Both are great tight end options. But sadly, both are in horrible matchups.
Smith and the Titans are facing off against the Carolina Panthers, who are averaging a stingy 8.25-points to the TE position thus far and sport the sixth-lowest CS score for fantasy points given up to the position. But over the last two weeks, Smith has been the 13th and third overall tight end in Fantasy. Pilling up 10 targets, 142-yards, and a touchdown.
Mark Andrews, on the other hand, is ninth overall at the position on the season. He is averaging 11.3 fantasy points-per-game. But the Ravens face the New England Patriots who are allowing the lowest, 5.06 fantasy points to the TE position and come in 32nd in my CS score rankings for points allowed. The Ravens are, by far, the best offense they will have faced so far this season. But it is still not an ideal matchup.
Despite the miserable matchup, I think I put my trust in Mark Andrews. There just isn’t anything screaming for me to start Smith over Andrews. If it was a plus matchup, maybe.
|Player||Total Targets||Avg Tgts/Game||Team Tgt%||Rec||Catch%||TDs|
But Mark Andrews is currently sporting a 24.9-percent team market share. That is an incredible number for a tight end not named, Kittle/Kelce/Ertz. Baltimore will need to put up some points to keep up with Tom Brady and company, so Andrews should continue to see a hefty opportunity.
Quoth The Raven, “Evermore”
Lamar or Stafford? NE DST or NYJ DST?
— Fantasy Cynic (@DffJoe) October 31, 2019
Matthew Stafford is the easy answer due to the great matchup and the Kerryon Johnson injury resulting in a distinct lack of any top-end talent in the rushing attack. Stafford appears to be a top-five option for Week 9 against an Oakland Raiders team that has relinquished the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
They have allowed 298.3 passing yards per game (third-most) and 2.71 touchdowns (most in the league).
With that being said, suggesting to sit the QB1 in fantasy points-per-game on the season is not happening. Jackson also appears to be a top-five option despite a daunting matchup against an electric New England Patriots defense. Marquise Brown is set to return which will help keep the Patriots defense honest. New England has had a ridiculously easy schedule to start the season and will be facing their first tough test of the year in the Baltimore Ravens. Roll with your stud.
As for your defensive starter. This might seem counterintuitive, given my response above, but the New England Patriots defense should not be on fantasy benches until the second week of December when they face the Kansas City Chiefs. Baltimore is likely going to be their toughest test of the year, but the Patriots should still have the counting stats due to multiple sacks and at least one turnover. While we cannot expect them to be the number one fantasy defense for Week 9, the New York Jets are not the defense to fade them for. The Jets just dealt away stud defensive lineman Leonard Williams and will be without C.J. Mosley for the next four to six weeks. Making matters worse, they lost his replacement for the season with impressive rookie Blake Cashman being placed on injured reserve on Thursday. Stick with your studs.
Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad
I need to fill a WR and Flex spot. Here are my choices: Tyrell Williams WR. Royce Freeman RB. John Brown WR. What is your take?
— ⚡️CheeZe_X⚡️ (@myboxchevy87) October 30, 2019
Tyrell Williams showed well in his return from injury last week, recording three catches for 91 yards and a touchdown. Additionally, and perhaps more notably, Williams saw 49-percent of the team’s air yards in week eight. Fifth in the NFL on the week. His deep ball opportunities are bankable each and every week. His week nine opponent, the Detroit Lions, has a beatable defense through the air. Not only are they amongst the league leaders in wide receiver fantasy points allowed, but they’ve allowed the most air yards against in the NFL by over 200 yards. With the combination of Tyrell’s propensity to capitalize downfield and Detroit’s prevalence to give up deep ball attempts, Williams is a strong start this week.
John Brown is in a similar spot to Tyrell. He’s one of just two receivers (the other being Michael Thomas) who have logged at least 50-yards receiving in every game this season. He has a solid floor each and every week, and his week nine matchup is enticing. Washington has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers in 2019. Brown has taken command of this Buffalo receiving group, recording a 22% target share and a 34% air yard share to date. In a plus matchup, Brown is also a quality start this week.
While Royce Freeman has shown to be a solid producer on the season, he’s yet to take command of the Broncos running back room. He and Phillip Lindsay have constantly split carries and vulture opportunities away from each other. As has been his norm, you can expect about 15-touches for 70-yards for Freeman with limited upside for anything more. The Browns have been a solid matchup for running backs this season, in large part due to Derrick Henry’s big week one game. But the Broncos as a whole may struggle with Brandon Allen under center in week nine. Freeman’s a risky play given the context of his offense this week as we see what the Denver Broncos will look like moving forward.
Ultimately, picking a WR and a FLEX position here, I would go with the two aforementioned receivers: Tyrell Williams and John Brown. Both are in quality matchups and will command strong opportunity shares. They are my WR17 and WR18 on the week and should absolutely make it into your lineup.
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