Week 10 Mailbag
Each week we collect your questions and dive into the data for you. Have a difficult start/sit question when all the columns are telling you to start or sit both players? Who should you pick up and who should you drop? Can you trust receiver X? Follow our twitter handle @FFStatistics_and reply to our weekly tweet for questions to get a thorough, data-driven answer from one of our analysts to your most pressing Fantasy Football questions. So now let’s get into your questions in our Week 10 Mailbag.
The Engram Adjustment
Engram out what order would you prioritize ROS in dynasty? Gesicki, Cook, McDonald, Cook & Hollister? PPR and contending 👍
— Chris (@Chr1sco) November 6, 2019
Evan Engram is owned in 97% of Yahoo! Leagues and 98.4% of ESPN leagues. So @Chr1sco is not the only owner scrambling for a replacement this week and potentially beyond. At least Chris has it narrowed down to a few options and is looking for help.
Points Per Opportunity
Usually one of the first places that can be used to look for help is the Point Per Receiving Opportunity Table courtesy of FFStatistics. From there you can evaluate past and possible future opportunities for the selected players.
The four options requested to prioritize include a couple of players that have the potential for increased targets in the coming weeks. For the Seahawks, Luke Wilson is dealing with a rib injury and played just 17 snaps in Week 9. In Miami, Preston Williams has been placed on IR and is out for the season.
Hollister has performed better on a PPO basis than Gesicki, but only has 14 targets over 4 games. The Wyoming grad was forced into duty when Will Dissly went out for the season in Week 6. Since Dissly went down, Hollister has seen 6, 2, and 6 targets respectively and done well with those targets.
Mike Gesicki had his best game of the season in Week 9. The Penn State alum caught all 6 of his targets for 95 yards. Vacated with Williams going on IR are 60 targets over 8 games. Both players are solid additions.
The “Other Two”
Jared Cook and Vance McDonald are bigger name veterans that find themselves in situations where they fight for targets on a weekly basis. On top of fighting his way back from injury, Jared Cook is competing for looks with the likes of Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara.
Vance McDonald is right up there with Jacob Hollister from a PPO standpoint. So which way should we go? A little more digging is necessary to make as informed of a decision as we can. A look at their strength of schedule and a closer look at the numbers of the four players are in order.
Tale of The Tape
Using the Defenses App from FFStatistics, a Strength of Schedule was calculated using the points per game allowed by the upcoming opponents to the position and then divided by the remaining number of games. The Snap Counts App was also used to try to differentiate a target. The rest of the numbers are similar across the board, and honestly, are not that impressive.
A further look at the numbers puts Vance McDonald as the leader of this pack. The veteran tight end plays the most snaps, averages the most points per game, and has the second easiest schedule. This includes a matchup in Week 14 against the super tight end friendly Arizona Cardinals defense. The prioritized list based on the data would be:
- Vance McDonald
- Jared Cook
- Jacob Hollister
- Mike Gesicki
The hope is you have better options available than our friend @Chr1sco does, but if your options are limited, this is an analytical look at which tight end to choose. Streaming is always an option as well. You can use the Defenses App and try to locate some free agents with a spicy matchup. Good luck with your Engram adjustment. May the Fantasy Gods be with you!
Ride with Pascal? Or Stay in the Woods?
Take a chance on Pascal this week over Woods?
— Robert Capper (@Robcapper) November 6, 2019
It is hard to admit this, but I would absolutely play Pascal over Woods in Week 10.
Let’s face it, Robert Woods just isn’t what we hoped he would be in 2019. Even with Brandin Cooks likely to miss some time, I don’t expect Woods to get a big bump in opportunity. With Woods being incredibly inefficient this season, he would need a big boost to his targets to be a strong start this week.
Using our Points Per Opportunity Table, you can see that this year Pascal is averaging over a full fantasy point per opportunity than Woods is this season. Pascal is even outperforming Woods 2018 season.
Reasons for Optimism with Pascal
Jacoby Brissett was averaging 207.4 Passing AirYards-Per-Game. But, because the Colts can’t have anything nice, he is going to miss time now and that means Brian Hoyer steps in under center. The last time Hoyer saw meaningful time on the field was in 2017 when he started six games for the San Fransisco 49ers. In games he started, he averaged 268.83 Passing AirYards-Per-Game. Hoyer is not afraid to chuck the ball.
In Week 9, Pascal accounted for nearly half of the Colts’ air yards. In 24 career games, he has six games with double-digit fantasy points, including two such games in the last three weeks. With the plethora of injuries striking the Colts this season, Pascal finds himself as the No.1 receiver this week and it could not come in a better matchup. The Miami Dolphins have the fifth-highest Consistency Score in points allowed to WRs and are averaging 32.63 points to the receiver position.
Once T.Y. Hilton is back or against Jacksonville in Week 11, this is likely a very different response. But I think Zack Pascal, in Week 10, is a much better play than Robert Woods.
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