FFStatistics Fantasy Football: Start or Sit Week 12
Welcome to week 12 of the fantasy football season. This season is flying by and it is bittersweet. Playoffs are just around the corner and teams are locking it up or fighting for their spots. This article is geared towards helping make those less-than-obvious fantasy football start or sit decisions.
As a casual reminder, the following teams are all on bye this week. The Arizona Cardinals, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, and Minnesota Vikings.
This weekly article aims to deliver solid lineup advice based on statistical and matchup analysis for who to start and who to sit. Let’s go get some wins.
Fantasy Football: Start or Sit Week 12
Start: Matt Ryan vs. Tampa Bay
One could easily argue that both Matt Ryan and Jameis Winston are solid starts this week. Neither team has a secondary to be afraid of. There is one solid reason to lean Matt Ryan here; turnovers. Or more precisely, the lack thereof. Winston is going to have high yardage and multiple touchdowns. However, he is going to find a way to turn the ball over.
In seven of nine games, Ryan has thrown for 300+ yards. In six of those games, he has thrown multiple touchdowns. This has led to him being the QB11 overall thus far. The Buccanneers’ defense has been generous to everyone. They have allowed six quarterbacks to throw for more 300 passing yards, including one 500-plus yard performance. They have allowed multiple passing touchdowns to all but two teams this season. Consider Matty Ice as a top-five option this week in a plus matchup.
Start: Jameis Winston
Surprise! Jameis Winston makes the column again. This time, it is directly following the opposing quarterback. Truthfully, few quarterbacks are more frustrating to own than Jameis. He also has seven 300-plus yard games and actually has one more touchdown than Matt Ryan. On the flip-side, he has a whopping 18 interceptions.
Atlanta is also generous to everyone, except Drew Brees and the Saints. They are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Expect Winston to turn the ball over, but also expect him to land among the top-twelve at the position this week based on volume and a couple of scores.
Sit: Daniel Jones vs. Chicago
The Bears have not been the shut-down defense we fondly remember, or fear, from last season. They are still, however, a unit to factor into matchups. Daniel Jones has played like a very talented rookie. Meaning, he has had great games of solid production and ones where he very much looks like the rookie he is. He has only thrown multiple scores in three of the games he has started. He has thrown an interception in five of eight games started.
Meanwhile, the Bears are allowing the sixth-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks. The Bears have seven interceptions and six forced fumbles this season. In a game where multiple turnovers are more likely to occur than multiple touchdowns, it is recommended to find a better streaming option this week.
Start: Jaylen Samuels vs. Cincinnati
There is some injury speculation involved here, so this could change depending on the availability of other offensive starters. A little upfront honesty, the Steelers have had a difficult season on the offensive side of the ball. James Conner is looking like he could miss another week after reaggravation of his shoulder in last week’s game. Jaylen Samuels should rise to the forefront of this offense. Juju Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson could also miss this game.
In week nine, with Conner out of the lineup, Samuels rushed only eight times for 10 yards. However, he turned 13 targets into 73 receiving yards. With two key receivers out of the lineup, Samuels should maintain a safe floor between rushing and targets. The Bengals are allowing the fifth-most points to the position, including eight receptions for 57 yards from Samuels the last time these teams met. He is in the fringe RB2 conversation this week.
Start: David Montgomery vs. New York Giants
Fantasy owners of elusive rookie David Montgomery have ridden his up-and-down performances throughout the season. If there is a week to feel like the game script will favor his role, this is it. There is speculation about Mitchell Trubisky‘s availability this week after an “apparent injury” suffered while playing poorly last week.
The Giants are allowing the 15th most points to the position. Running backs that have had 14 or more carries are averaging 97.5 yards and .83 touchdowns per game. Montgomery has had 14 or more carries in six of ten games this season. Expect the Bears to lean on Montgomery as part of their gameplan this week. He is in the RB2 conversation this week.
Sit: Brian Hill vs. Tampa Bay
For those who follow along weekly, you may recall Brian Hill being featured in last week’s article. However, last week he was a recommended start. That did not pan out as expected. Not only did Hill fail to live up to fantasy expectations, but he also trolled owners on Twitter afterward. In that game, he logged 15 attempts for 30 yards.
What a difference one week makes. This week the Falcons take on Tampa Bay’s surprisingly stout run defense. The Bucs have only allowed one back to clear 100 yards and only allowed three total rushing touchdowns this season. If Hill could not get the job done against a beatable Panthers defense last week, there is not much to expect from him this week. Hill is a desperation flex play this week and should be left on benches for any other decent option.
Start: Jarvis Landry vs. Miami
Surprisingly, Jarvis Landry has more PPR points than Odell Beckham Jr. thus far this season. While that trend may not continue throughout the rest of the season, Landry has been the receiver to own for the Browns so far.
The Dolphins are allowing the 12th-most points to receivers this season. This game could very easily be the big game we have been waiting for from OBJ, Landry is set up to be a solid PPR play as well. The Dolphins have allowed 16 touchdowns to receivers and Landry has scored in three straight games. He has also finished with ten or more targets in three of the last four games. Expect Landry to settle into top-24 type of production this week.
Start: D. J. Chark. vs Tennessee
With Nick Foles back under center, target share was something to monitor last week for the Jaguars. D. J. Chark was at the top of Foles list, and it was not particularly close.
For all the Dede Westbrook hopefuls (raises hand) here’s the target distribution with Foles back under center.
1. Chark: 15
2. Conley: 8
3. Fournette: 7
4. Westbrook: 6
Dede will have his weeks, but the Chark emergence is the real deal folks.
— John Hesterman (@john_hesterman) November 18, 2019
Chark has spent the season proving that he is not just the field-stretcher that many thought him to be last season. In six of ten games he has eight or more targets and is averaging 79.6 yards per contest.
The Titans are not a receiver matchup to avoid. Since week eight they have allowed five receivers to score and an average of 221.6 yards per game to the position. Ride Chark and his 37.5% target share this week and on forward. He is a top-twelve option this week and should be started in all formats.
Sit: Terry McLaurin vs. Detroit
Rookie Terry McLaurin has made some noise this season. However, his performance has been tied to quarterback play. With Case Keenum under center, McLaurin looked electric and was making plays week in and week out. Since Dwayne Haskins has taken over, McLaurin has struggled for consistent production.
The Lions have not exactly been a matchup to fear for opposing teams. Cornerback Darius Slay will most likely be smothering McLaurin taking away the few targets Haskins manages to lob his way. McLaurin is averaging 39.5 yards per game over his last four games. He still may have some flex appeal, but temper expectations against Slay in what should be a run-first game plan.
Start: Ryan Griffin vs. Oakland
Ryan Griffin has become what many were hoping Chris Herndon to be; a reliable safety valve for Sam Darnold. Since week eight, Griffin is averaging four targets for 57.75 per game and has three touchdowns in that span.
The Raiders are allowing the third-most points to the position and have allowed four touchdowns since week seven. Griffin should string together another solid outing and land in the top-twelve tight ends this week. Griffin is only owned in 24% of Yahoo leagues which would make him an idea streaming target this week.
Sit: Jason Witten vs. New England
For several weeks, Jason Witten had a target share that owners could set their watch to. For five straight weeks, he had exactly four targets per game. Since then there has been more fluctuation in his targets. His value has not been sexy or exciting, but it keeps him out of the booth on Monday nights, and for that, we remain thankful. His floor has been safe, but this is not a matchup to feel comfortable starting him.
The Patriots are plain stingy to tight ends, allowing the eighth fewest points to the position. They have only allowed three touchdowns to tight ends all season. Witten may still see his four targets, but it will be a low production game for him. Sit him for any better option.
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