Week 12 Mailbag
Each week we collect your questions and dive into the data for you. Have a difficult start/sit question when all the columns are telling you to start or sit both players? Who should you pick up and who should you drop? Can you trust receiver X? Follow our twitter handle @FFStatistics_and reply to our weekly tweet for questions to get a thorough, data-driven answer from one of our analysts to your most pressing Fantasy Football questions. So now let’s get into your questions in our Week 12 Mailbag.
PPR flex spot. Hines, Miles Sanders, Jamaal Williams or Scarbrough?
— HAWKYOU (@hawkyou72) November 21, 2019
I knew I wasn’t going to roll with Jamaal Willaims here. A clear second fiddle to Aaron Jones going up against the Niners defense who is allowing a meager 15.7 fantasy points to the RB position and has the second-lowest CS score for RB matchups? Nope.
Sanders is interesting. But Seattle isn’t a positive matchup for the RB position either. They are 22nd in terms of points allowed to RBs and 20th in my CS score for points allowed to the position.
So that left Hines on Thursday Night Football and the wild-card Bo Scarbrough. Considering Hines could only muster 35-percent of the offensive snaps and yielded the lead role to Jonathan Williams, Hines worries me. I told you as much on Twitter before TNF Kickoff.
Most of my leagues have a “Points For” playoff tie-breaker. That being said, I tend to strategize with the mindset of “Go Big or Go Home” and Scarbrough is the higher ceiling play here.
The Washington Football Club is allowing the seventh-most points to the running back position and sixth-highest CS score in points allowed to the position. Neither Ty Johnson or J.D. McKissic have been able to take control of this backfield which left the door open for Scarbrough to come in last week and dominate the snap count and opportunities. Scarbrough had 14 opportunities against Dallas. McKissic had the second most out of the backfield with seven.
The game script is apt to be in Scarbrough’s favor as well. Detroit is favored by three and a half points against Washington. When the Lions are salting the game away, I expect it will be on the legs of Bo over the other two options.
Go With Your Gut
I need a flex and 2 RB’s. I have mark Ingram, Joe Mixon, Jonathan Williams, Robert woods and Tarik Cohen. I like mark Ingram and joe mixon but I can trust mixon even with lots of carries. I’m torn I need help 🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️
— Irie Lee⭐️ (@irielee12) November 20, 2019
FYI – Since the Week 12 Mailbag doesn’t come out until Friday, we did reach out to Irie and suggest he plug Jonathan Williams into one of his RB slots before TNF kicked off.
The first choice here is an obvious one. Mark Ingram has worked his way into “every week must-start” territory. The RB10 on the season in average fantasy points per game, Ingram is an RB1 option this week despite facing a tough Rams defense allowing just 3.53 yards-per-carry on the season. Digging deeper into the Rams numbers reveals that they allowed Christian McCaffrey to go nuts for 128 rushing yards and two touchdowns. They let Nick Chubb get loose for 96 rushing yards, and saw Chris Carson bust through with 118 yards on the ground. All three RB1’s they have faced this season went for over four yards-per-carry. Further buoying Ingram’s upside, the Rams have surrendered five receptions per game to the position.
The second choice is the running back your instincts led you towards, Joe Mixon. Mixon was solid enough in Week 4, the last time the Bengals faced off against the Steelers. He ran for 4.13 yards-per-carry and hauled in all four of his targets. He failed to find the end-zone but has become a larger part of the offense with Ryan Finley under center.
|Player||Week||Opp||Rush Att||Yards||Rush Yds/Att||Rush TDs||Pass Trgt||Rec||Rec Yards||Rec TDs||PPR Fantasy Points|
Since Finley took over Mixon has averaged 100 rushing yards-per-game, and is the RB3 in total fantasy points. Mixon maintains his RB1 upside this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
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