FFStatistics Fantasy Football: Start or Sit Week 13
This time of year we, as a nation, tend to reflect on what we are thankful for. It is a tradition ingrained in us by our culture and handed down from our forefathers many years ago. Traditions, as they tend to do, have evolved along with the culture. Football, turkey, sweatpants, and perusing the Black Friday ads are all part of the tradition now. We give thanks, for fantasy football. We give thanks to the players that we chose to start, as well as the ones we smartly decided to sit.
In the Thanksgiving edition of the FFStatistics start or sit article, we also have one more thing to be thankful for; the end of bye weeks. This weekly article aims to deliver solid lineup advice based on statistical and matchup analysis for who to start and who to sit. Let’s go get some wins!
Start: Sam Darnold vs. Cinncinatti
The apparitions have dissipated! Over the last four weeks, Sam Darnold is averaging 274.5 yards per contest. In that same span, he has thrown eight touchdowns and only two interceptions. Since week nine, he is the QB4 in fantasy football.
The Bengals are allowing the eighth-most points to the position. Over their last four games, they are allowing an average of 251.25 yards per game. During that stretch, they have allowed seven passing touchdowns and only one interception. It has already been stated that Andy Dalton will be back under center for the Bengals, which actually bodes well for more of a back and forth game, which should keep Darnold throwing the ball. Darnold should land within the top 12 at the position this week and is a great streaming candidate. He is a rock-solid second QB option in Superflex formats.
Start: Aaron Rodgers vs. New York Giants
How the mighty have fallen. Aaron Rodgers has not been an auto-start top-five option for fantasy owners this season. Of his 18 passing touchdowns, eight of them came in a two-game stretch. In his last three starts, he is only averaging 10.8 points per game. However, not all hope is lost for a fantasy resurgence.
The New York Giants have allowed eight passing touchdowns over their last three contests. Last week, they allowed Mitchell Trubisky a season-high 278 passing yards. Coming off of an awful outing against the 49ers, expect Rodgers to remind fantasy owners why he should remain in starting lineups. Rodgers is a top-10 option at the position this week in all formats.
Sit: Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Baltimore
Jimmy Garoppolo has been on fire lately. Over the last four weeks, he is the QB3 in fantasy. Behind only Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. In that span, he has the third-most passing yards (1,242) and the second-most touchdown passes (11) of all quarterbacks. However, this week the 49ers travel cross-country to face a stout Baltimore Ravens defense. In the last three weeks, they have allowed one passing touchdown to quarterbacks and an average of 182 passing yards-per-game.
Between the cross-country road trip and the difficult defense, do not expect a top-12 performance from Jimmy G. this week. He remains startable in SuperFlex leagues but is off the streaming radar this week.
Start: Miles Sanders vs. Miami
Jordan Howard is still being listed as day-to-day and has yet to resume contact in practice. This clears the way for dual-threat rookie Miles Sanders to continue to operate as both a rusher and receiver out of the backfield. In the last two weeks without Howard active, Sanders has logged 23 carries for 101 rushing yards. He has also seen nine targets for an additional 32 yards. Not exactly stellar numbers, but those matchups were against the Patriots and the Seahawks.
The Dolphins are the kind of matchup that should have Sanders’ owners salivating. If there is a breakout game on the horizon, this is it. They are allowing the fifth-most points to running backs. Coming off of a two-week skid, the Eagles offense needs a get right kind of game. Sanders should be game-script proof and a featured piece of the offense this week. He is an RB2 with upside in this game and should be started in all formats, especially PPR leagues.
Start: Todd Gurley vs. Arizona
During the 2018 season, fantasy owners could count on Todd Gurley having massive touches and scoring heaps of fantasy points. This season, he is the current RB16 in PPR formats. He has still managed to get into the endzone a total of eight times but it has come coupled with erratic touches. Over his last three games, he is averaging 14.3 carries and 3.3 targets per game.
The Cardinals are allowing the 10th most fantasy points to the position. They have allowed six rushing and five receiving touchdowns this season. Gurley is set up to be a game pace asset in a contest that the ailing Rams need to saunter away victoriously. Gurley can no longer be counted on for 20-plus touches like last season, but he should get volume early and has a good chance to score. He is a high-end RB2 with scoring upside this week in PPR formats.
Sit: Tevin Coleman vs. Baltimore
Outside of one game, Tevin Coleman has been just kind of, meh, for fantasy purposes. He has not logged more than 12 carries in a game since week seven and has only rushed for more than 45 yards three times all season. His seven total touchdowns are nice but difficult to predict in tougher matchups.
The Ravens are allowing the eighth fewest points to the position. Only two running backs all season have topped 66 rushing yards against them. Nick Chubb in week four and Joe Mixon in week ten. If Matt Breida returns to the lineup this week he will eat into some of Coleman’s touches. Against a stiff run defense, Coleman is difficult to trust as anything more than flex option with mediocre goal-line upside.
Start: DeVante Parker vs. Philadelphia
Three seasons late for his “breakout season”, DeVante Parker has been a steady, productive wideout. All it took was a tanking Dolphins team and a dash of FitzMagic to make it happen. Parker has only failed to eclipse 55 or more yards in two games this season. He has also hauled in four scores so far. He is averaging 12.7 points-per-game.
The Eagles secondary is generously allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to the position. They have also allowed 14 touchdowns to receivers. It is well documented that the Dolphins cannot run the football; so expect Ryan Fitzpatrick to be airing it out. Parker is the immediate beneficiary and should settle in as a middling WR2 this week.
Start: Jarvis Landry vs. Pittsburgh
We are not going to get into the events that marred what was already a rough matchup the last time these two teams met. What we will discuss is how Jarvis Landry has been a fantastic fantasy option for the majority of this season. He is averaging 76 yards per game to go along with his five receiving touchdowns. He has seen double-digit targets in four of the last five games.
The Steelers are allowing the 13th fewest points to the position, but have been more susceptible to slot receivers. Baker Mayfield is (finally) seeming to find his stride. Landry remains startable as a WR2 this week, especially in PPR formats. Fire him up once again.
Sit: Mike Williams vs. Denver
Mike Williams is averaging 6.1 targets and 66 yards per game this season. The biggest disappointment is the lack of touchdowns from the same player that finished the 2018 season with ten scores.
The Broncos are allowing the sixth-fewest points to receivers. If that is not daunting enough, Williams will most likely be draped by Chris Harris who has been a terror to opposing receivers. Williams is shaping up to look like a desperation flex option in a bad divisional matchup.
Start: Jack Doyle vs. Tennessee
Over his last five games, Jack Doyle is averaging 4.4 targets for 35.2 yards per game. He has also scored twice in that span. With Eric Ebron recently landing on injured reserve, Doyle retains his snap share and should see an increase in target share as well. Especially those valuable red-zone targets.
The Titans are allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to tight ends. They have allowed five touchdowns and an average of 56 yards per game. Doyle could saunter into back-end TE1 status this week.
Sit: Jimmy Graham vs. New York Giants
We really have not thought about the Giants as being a defense to be frightened of. However, they have fared well against opposing tight ends, allowing the third-fewest points to the position. Mix in Jimmy Graham‘s 3.8 targets per-game, and we have a recipe for dodgy output at best. Basically, it comes down to gambling on a touchdown. If he does not score, he will disappoint owners this week.
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