Week 15 Mailbag
Welcome to the Playoffs! Each week we collect your questions and dive into the data for you. Have a difficult start/sit question when all the columns are telling you to start or sit both players? Who should you pick up and who should you drop? Can you trust receiver X? Follow our twitter handle @FFStatistics_and reply to our weekly tweet for questions to get a thorough, data-driven answer from one of our analysts to your most pressing Fantasy Football questions. So now let’s get into your questions in our Week 15 Mailbag.
Can You Diggs Your Way to a Championship?
I sat obj for pascal do i trust diggs this week or sit I have dede obj on bench
— pete d (@PraiseComics) December 12, 2019
It is logical to worry about Diggs in this matchup. The Los Angeles Chargers have actually been quite stingy in terms of giving up fantasy points to the receiver position. They are 30th in terms of just plain points allowed to the position and 23rd in my Consistency Score for points allowed to the position. Both Arizona and Oakland are much more favorable matchups, coming in at second overall and 13th respectively, in terms of points allowed to the position.
Pair that with the fact that Diggs has averaged 9.7 fantasy points-per-game in his last five games played (0.5-PPR format), and I don’t blame you for wanting to pivot.
It would be really hard, for me, to not play Odell Beckham this week against the Cardinals.
Beckham hasn’t returned first-round value in 2019 as the 28th receiver on the year. And he is currently listed as “questionable”. Despite that, Beckham has been on the field for 95-percent of the team’s offensive snaps though and is apt to do so again this week. That’s better than both of the other receivers. He isn’t leading the three in team market share, but against Arizona, getting open shouldn’t be a problem. And we know OBJ always has the potential each and every week to explode fantasy points. If there was ever a matchup this season to roll the dice on that upside, it is this week in Arizona.
2 QB league: Dak, Rogers, Manning, Mayfield
PPR Flex: Kupp, Slayton Miles Sanders?
— smitty (@crsmith03) December 12, 2019
The Good (Matchups)
Eli Manning had a hot first half in Week 14, but plateaued and couldn’t do squat in the second half. Even in that positive matchup, he couldn’t break into the Top 16 of QBs on the week. And that was his best game of 2019. Miami is a great matchup, but I still don’t have any trust in Manning. Especially with an underwhelming Saquon Barkley and a limited Evan Engram. Manning is a 2QB last resort.
So that just leaves Baker Mayfield, and if you read above, you can see how positive Arizona is for that Clevland offense. The Cardinals are averaging the most fantasy points allowed to QBs, second-most to receivers and the most to tight ends. The only thing the Arizona defense is limiting is the running game. Mayfield is set up to have his best fantasy performance this week and is a great play, especially in a 2QB league.
The Bad (Matchups)
The year 2019 has been full of surprises. Had you asked me this in September, I would be dumbfounded by your questioning of plugging in Aaron Rodgers regardless of the matchup. But the 2019 Rodgers/LaFleur combo has not been fruitful for fantasy. Even at Lambeau field, I am avoiding the matchup for Rodgers. Chicago is one of the worst fantasy opponents for QBs, averaging only 14.06 points to the position which is 25th.
Dak Prescott is a matchup I would think of pivoting from in a single QB league. But in a 2QB league, I think he is a solid play.
The Rams have been stepping things up defensively and have been a nightmare for quarterbacks. Aside from Lamar Jackson doing, well, Lamar Jackson things against them, they have allowed the 20th or fewer fantasy points to the position three out of the past four weeks. But Dak’s mobility, the full array of playmakers available to him, and desperateness leads me to believe he is going to have a solid floor. The Cowboys need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive as they are now tied with Philly. They are desperate to win this week and that means Dak is going to have free reign to sling the ball up and down the field.
To sum that up – Mayfield and Prescott are my two QB choices.
As for the flex, this is simple. Cooper Kupp for me. In half-point PPR formats, Kupp is the 9th overall receiver on the season. It has slowed down a bit as of late, but he still is Jared Goff’s security blanket. With one of the highest over/under on the weekend, I want a piece of that action in my lineups.
With Miles Sanders, you just can’t promise any sort of floor as his usage has been sporadic, and his efficiency has been atrocious.
I admit, Darius Slayton has been a target monster, averaging 9.5 targets-per-game over the past four weeks. He isn’t a bad play versus Miami, the 4th most friendly fantasy matchup for receivers. But you have to decide if you trust in Eli Manning or not.
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