Market Share Report: Jacksonville Jaguars
In my last Market Share report, the conclusion I came to when breaking down the Dolphins was rather easy using the FFstatistics data. For the Jaguars, it is much murkier. Though more ambiguous, this particular report is so valuable for fantasy purposes.
Nobody knows what to make of the Jaguars target distribution, so it is being treated as a “stay away” situation. Furthermore, all of these receivers have late-round ADP’s, so once the situation is clarified, the player who emerges will be a serious value.
Jacksonville Market Share Candidates
Donte Moncrief was a polarizing fantasy player 3 years ago, as he was a big, athletic red zone threat who Andrew Luck loved to target. The last two years he has been inefficient without Luck and he has only played 21 of 32 possible regular season games. Moncrief looked the part of a touchdown savant in 2016 when in 9 games he had 7 touchdowns. The problem is, he only had 300 receiving yards and a 55% catch rate.
Moncrief’s supposed upside led the Jaguars to sign him to a one year-7 million dollar “prove it” deal. With a near “touchdown or die” skill set, Moncrief has no place on a Jaguars team that only targeted receivers in the red zone 35 times all of last year, yet handed Fournette 34(!) carries in the red zone. With a one year deal, minimal yardage output, and injury-plagued, inefficient seasons, Donte Moncrief is a stay away.
Dede Westbrook was a rookie last year, so there is not a ton of information to draw from his NFL usage. Regardless, in only seven games last year, Dede has 51 targets, averaging over seven a game. Extrapolating small sample sizes is not a good idea, but still, over a 16 game season Westbrook was well on pace for over 100 targets, showing the Jaguars were not scared to use the speedy rookie.
Three of his seven games were without Marqise Lee though, and when Lee returned, Westbrook was irrelevant, averaging only 2.3 receptions and 34.6 yards per game. But now that Lee is out for a whole season, Westbrook’s outlook is somewhat rosy.
Westbrook is a stretch receiver, only 178 pounds with 4.4 speed, but the Jaguars obviously care more about his talent and are not afraid to feed him targets. It is foreseeable that Westbrook soaks up 20 or so of Lee’s vacated targets. A 15%-17% target share for Westbrook is in the cards, making the young wideout worth a late-round flier
Keelan Cole was also a rookie last year, but had an exceptional season as an undrafted free agent nonetheless. In a full 16 games, he had 748 yards, garnered a 15.75% target share, and proved to be an excellent downfield playmaker, averaging over 17 yards per reception last season.
With uninspiring athletic measurables, it becomes clear that Cole wins with nuance and deception. With such rookie year efficiency, Cole is really the only proven receiver on this roster. For this reason, he is the favorite, far and away, to lead the Jaguars in targets.
DJ Chark is barely worth mentioning, but with high draft capital, it is deemed necessary. At LSU Chark was a low volume field stretcher. I know I said this about Westbrook, but he showed the ability to accrue a substantial target share at the NFL level.
Chark, on the other hand, is a sub-200-pound receiver with 4.3 wheels who looks the part of a one-dimensional player. He relies on athleticism, not skill, and he is unlikely to even play much this season
In the Dolphins report I did I did not get into tight ends because they have such a crowded receiver room to sort through and a rookie tight end. The Jaguars though brought in Austin Sefereian-Jenkins as a free agent. ASJ saw a 14% target share last season, but the Jets had almost no the options.
There is not much to go off of for his career due to injury and suspension, but joining a new team, it is unlikely he gets too high of a share. A 12% or so share is likely.
Marqise Lee Injury
Marqise Lee led the Jaguars in target share last year at 18%. He and Keelan Cole looked like favorites to both hits near 20% this upcoming season, but Lee suffered a season-ending knee injury. The context of the other receivers on the depth chart paints a stark outlook. Also, all of these players, aside from Cole, are either low volume field stretchers, unproven, or simply not good.
The Lee injury actually makes the targets easier to predict, because Cole and Westbrook seem to be the only competent receivers they have.
Keelan Cole is the easy target leader for Jacksonville. There is not a ton to get excited about a receiver on this Jacksonville offense though. As I referenced earlier, when the Jaguars get in the red zone, it’s the Leonard Fournette show. He saw as many red zones rushing opportunities than wide receivers saw targets last season. Also, with an elite defense, the Jags are rarely in negative game script situations, so they do not rely on passing very much.
Still, Cole is must draft in the 9th or 10th rounds of drafts. With the 96 vacated Lee targets, Cole will easily see 110+ targets. A 20% target share is almost a given. My optimistic Keelan Cole projection, 126.5 targets 70.8 receptions 991.3 yards 5.7 touchdowns. That’s over 200 PPR Points, showing why Keelan Cole is such an interesting buy in all fantasy formats.