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Target Score Report: Week 3

There’s an old saying that goes: “Once is a fluke, twice is a coincidence, three is a trend”. As we get further and further into the 2018 season, the data that we have is more reliable and trustworthy to build out trends and forecasts. After week 2, we were able to get a baseline analysis of Target Score.

Having three weeks of data to develop Target Score, the conclusions we draw are more founded and actionable. To quickly review what we’re looking at in the chart below, higher Target Score players get a higher percentage of their team’s targets the most consistently. So without delay, let’s look at the top Target Score players thus far this season!

Target Score Report: Week 3

  PlayerTarget Score
Will Fuller156.05555555556
Adam Thielen45.449034820136
Robert Woods40.324608790093
DeAndre Hopkins35.794989611415
Jarvis Landry29.859140970267
Corey Davis26.907350194798
Antonio Brown23.989805471919
Quincy Enunwa22.181876321651
Michael Thomas20.854983653487
Odell Beckham19.357349949943
Mike Evans16.131370632078
Golden Tate15.499685165843
Julio Jones13.771492925801
Brandin Cooks13.62506697754
Keenan Allen13.468700594029
JuJu Smith-Schuster11.515394762958
T.Y. Hilton10.575770537508
Allen Robinson6.5624471446962
Davante Adams6.4790131918602
Nelson Agholor4.0058436846351
Devin Funchess3.5579967199733
Sammy Watkins2.7093360426707
A.J. Green2.6948841892836
Demaryius Thomas2.5879865568825
Kenny Golladay2.5202880493809
Cooper Kupp2.1899891852653
Tyreek Hill1.6357326630685
Randall Cobb1.619352388541
Taylor Gabriel1.4686063916951
Stefon Diggs0.88949917999333
Brandon Marshall0.42426406871193
Emmanuel Sanders0.36614564596979
Michael Crabtree0.21538744758532
Christian Kirk7.5460610158481E-31
Larry Fitzgerald0
Tyler Lockett0
Keelan Cole-0.019181177921614
Cole Beasley-0.061242028289949
Sterling Shepard-0.083009707515291
Kelvin Benjamin-0.1440046082212
Tyler Boyd-0.18144368465061
Phillip Dorsett-0.23570226039551
Jakeem Grant-0.24333213169614
Amari Cooper-0.41803980857497
Albert Wilson-0.48285731222676
Torrey Smith-0.78402508920429
Kenny Stills-0.85051727179971
Chris Godwin-0.94356419512049
John Brown-1.172664992409
Danny Amendola-1.3949716649258
Calvin Ridley-1.4645825838792
Rashard Higgins-1.577158138795
Pierre Garcon-1.6016151036285
Deonte Thompson-2.0116438278171
Antonio Callaway-2.1286750273402
Geronimo Allison-2.5110436523376
Donte Moncrief-2.7443357303404
Mike Williams-3.6771775338409
Courtland Sutton-3.7639291569333
Taywan Taylor-3.8393281763486
Terrelle Pryor-3.8933141071383
Ted Ginn-4.2426406871193
Paul Richardson-4.4816393675233
Andre Holmes-4.5112216591185
Mohamed Sanu-4.7059185385362
Jamison Crowder-4.7904724240309
Jarius Wright-4.9548520154494
Jordy Nelson-5.0405760987617
Jermaine Kearse-6.3492063492063
Bruce Ellington-6.7813458075751
Dede Westbrook-7.3975432897447
Adam Humphries-7.548513560964
Trent Taylor-7.8655837296038
Zay Jones-10.283968840733
DeSean Jackson-10.907602095593
Josh Doctson-12.06795573225
Ryan Grant-12.929387307716
Dante Pettis-13.580361906378
Rishard Matthews-15.376492055619
Cordarrelle Patterson-15.593582685143
Marvin Jones-19.091883092037
John Ross-19.394928855402
Chad Williams-19.643701280563
Chris Hogan-19.916841003421
Robby Anderson-21.104400287641
Marquise Goodwin-22.755555555556
Anthony Miller-26.458359791706
Laquon Treadwell-27.839712699211
Chester Rogers-28.248176214748
Tavon Austin-30.098866217398
Willie Snead-33.941125496954
Michael Gallup-34.886440808384
Allen Hurns-39.419805334775
Jaron Brown-47.656220838579
DJ Moore-52.480024975628
D.J. Chark-57.490862704717
Cody Latimer-59.39696961967
Tajae Sharpe-63.007201234521
De'Anthony Thomas-65.722222222222
Seth Roberts-68.055555555556

One small amendment to Target Score I made was simply to multiply the statistic by 100. Target Score inherently centers around 0, and as we get more data, more and more players near that central mark. Last week, there were many players between 0.1 and -0.1, as to be expected. Multiplying by 100 simply allows us to get a better understanding of the rankings you see above.

Each week, I’ll discuss some notable players from the prior week both from a positive and negative lens. Early in the season, it’s crucial to see how players’ opportunities are shaping out and how consistently they’ll be used in their respective offenses. After week three, here are my players to watch for based on Target Score.

Notable Players:

Devin Funchess (Week 3 Target Share: 29%):

About this time last year, Funchess was also a player I was targeting in seasonal leagues. In 2017, Funchess saw 8%, 18%, and 30% target share in weeks one, two, and three, respectively. This is a prime example of that old saying, “three’s a trend”. Funchess would go on to be a very consistent weekly asset for your fantasy teams, finishing as the PPR WR21 on the season.

Funchess has had a very similar start to his season this year, registering 19%, 20%, and 29% market share in his first three games. Another clear similarity is the absence of Greg Olsen as a weapon in this passing game. While Cam Newton has historically not been a volume passer, the number one option on his team has finished as a WR2 or better in four of the past seven seasons. With the Panthers on a bye, this week now may be a good time to go trade for Funchess.

Taylor Gabriel (Week 3 Target Share: 29%):

Another player who has seen his target share rise each week, Gabriel has been the clear number two option in the Bears’ passing attack thus far. Registering 14%, 22%, and 29% of Chicago’s targets in weeks one, two, and three, respectively, Gabriel has a positive Target Score on the season. With Anthony Miller possibly sidelined – or at least hampered on the field – from a shoulder injury, Gabriel has the possibility to gain even more target share.

I think an apt comparison for Gabriel is Mohamed Sanu from last season. While nothing flashy, Sanu hovered around baseline Target Score for the season as a whole. Finishing as the PPR WR29 on the season, Sanu was a valuable contributor to fantasy teams. Gabriel has a similar opportunity this season to provide fantasy owners with excellent value. Likely on your waiver wire, Gabriel is a target of mine if I need WR depth.

Christian Kirk (Week 3 Target Share: 31%):

Keeping in the theme of this week’s article, Kirk is yet another player who has improved his target share each and every week this season. With this addition, you could even say that this article has a trend to it. Kirk hasn’t had a “blow-up” game yet, but he’s on a trajectory to be a major contributor in the Cardinals’ offense the rest of the year. Kirk’s target shares come in at 6%, 19%, and 31% this season, a very steady increase.

It remains to be seen if Josh Rosen can take this team back out of the basement of offensive incompetence. Personally, I think Rosen will perform well if given the opportunity. The Cardinals have attempted the third fewest pass attempts in the league thus far and have the lowest total team passing yards. Expectations should be tempered for a rookie quarterback, but it’s fair to expect an improvement upon these numbers. I’d be picking up Kirk everywhere in seasonal leagues.

Mike Williams (Week 3 Target Share: 23%):

A former first-round pick, Williams may seem to finally be catching his stride in the NFL. After a solid week three performance, Williams is a popular waiver wire add this week in seasonal leagues, and for good reason. He’s a high upside player in an explosive offense.

Mike Williams’ Target Score thus far suggests that he will not be a reliable fantasy contributor to your team. With weekly target shares of 11%, 7%, and 23%, Williams ranks 58th in seasonal Target Score at -3.68. This score ranks him behind other upside plays like Geronimo Allison, Antonio Callaway, and John Brown. This isn’t to say that Williams can’t turn into a consistent producer for your fantasy team, but in order to do so, he’ll need to improve his weekly target share numbers.

With week three in the books, we can already see that our analysis is less “what-if” than week two was. As we progress through these next few weeks, Target Scores will begin to stabilize. As mentioned in my introductory article, Target Score after week 5 last season has a 0.89 correlation to end of season target score. We’re getting closer and closer to that time! Make sure to check back each week as we go through notable players based on Target Scores and weekly market share data.

Thoughts? Questions? Check me out on twitter @FFzinger or comment below!

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