Another week of football is in the books, and we have even more data on the season to analyze. Nearly halfway through the fantasy football regular season now’s the time to be making those trades and waiver claims to push your team to the next level. Even if you’re 4-1 or 5-0, there’s always room to improve the makeup of your team. Let’s take a look at Target Score data through five weeks to see what conclusions we can draw. You’ll see I added Average and Standard Deviation columns to be clearer about what’s going into any given player’s Target Score.
Target Score Report: Week 5
|Player||Target Score||Avg Target Share/g||StDev Target Share|
As I outlined in my introductory piece to Target Score, one particularly valuable use of these scores is to build a “portfolio” of players who compliment each other well. For example, AJ Green and Michael Thomas have very similar Target Score after five weeks at about 3.8 to 3.9. Green has averaged 24% of his team’s weekly targets with a 6% standard deviation. On the other hand, Thomas has averaged 26% of his team’s weekly targets with an 11% standard deviation. Thomas may be the ideal player for you if your team struggles with upside. However, Green might fit your team better if you’ve had too many up and down weeks thus far. These are the kinds of moves I’d be considering when looking at this data!
Antonio Brown (Week 5 Target Share: 45%):
This may be the most anticlimactic notable player I’ve ever covered. Brown is obviously a star wide receiver, and there’s no way he’s not in your starting lineup each and every week. However, what I found particularly notable with Brown’s week five performance was the massive opportunity share he received.
Coming into the week, Brown had three consecutive weeks of a sub 30% target share. In fact, his target share had also decreased each week in that span from 28% to 24% to 22%. Brown’s 45% target share in week five was a refreshing sign he’s still the focal point of the Steelers’ offense. To date, only five other players have had a game with 40% or more target share. Brown’s still among the elite; don’t worry.
Kenny Golladay (Week 5 Target Share: 30%):
Golladay has been a sensation this season as one of the biggest breakout players we’ve seen. Quickly turning into a must-start every week, the second-year wideout from Northern Illinois has seen over 40 targets on the season. With the Lions being one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league, this has translated to roughly a 22% market share per week. All these data points are why Golladay has been a star this fantasy season, but it’s not why he makes the list this week.
Golladay’s notable week comes from the fact that he out targeted Golden Tate for the first time this season. Tate ranks as one of the best players according to Target Score. He has consistently gotten the most targets on this Lions team. Marvin Jones has been a consistent third option on the team, having one of the lowest standard deviations of target share on the season. There’s a legitimate chance Golladay becomes the target leader on this team sooner rather than later.
Jordy Nelson (Week 5 Target Share: 12%):
Outside of a 20% market share in week three, corresponding to Nelson’s biggest game of the season, Nelson has seen fewer than 15% of his team’s targets in each game in 2018. While Derek Carr is having one of his statistically better seasons in his career, Nelson’s share of the offense has not been significant. The frustrations with this offense have been clear outside of Jared Cook.
The Raiders, like the Lions, have had massive volume through the air this season. While Nelson’s target share has been low, he should still be considered a good depth player in seasonal leagues. Nelson’s total targets, while high, are more indicative of high passing volume than high usage rates. Should the Raiders have less passing volume going forward, which is likely given their high volume currently, Nelson may be one to be worried about.
Last year, I found that Target Score after week five had a correlation of 0.89 to the player’s Target Score at the end of the season. Take a second look at the chart above to see how the end of the season might shake out! We’ll continue to monitor and track Target Score as the season progresses for any trends we can use to better our fantasy teams.
Thoughts? Questions? Check me out on twitter @FFzinger or comment below!