I’ll be switching things up quite a bit this week, and that’s mostly for two reasons: 1) there was a ton of personnel changes today that altered a lot of value plays this week, and 2) I’ve been fighting a cold that has ruined my ability to coherently form legible bananas. Seriously though, I had several parts of this article mostly ready to go, but I thought I’d try something different this week.
So, I’ll be offering most of the same information as usual, but I’m going to list things out rather than put them in paragraph form. This format will also allow me to highlight a few extra players than usual. Look for things to return to normal next week (or not, depending on the feedback).
Finally, just a reminder that this article is not just a list of chalk plays for week seven. Instead, I will try to highlight middle to lower level priced options that could be chalk-ish or good pivots. What these players all have in common is a good chance to offer great value for their price. With that out of the way, let’s move on to the targets.
DFS Facts & Figures: Week Seven
Baker Mayfield, vs. TB ($5,800)
Ok, this one is pretty chalky.
- Baker is QB11 on the DraftKings’ Sun-Mon slate.
- TB is allowing 31.8 points per game to QBs in DraftKings (worst in NFL).
- Tampa has given up the 2nd most passing yards, most TDs, and is tied for fewest INTs.
- TB was bad defensively last year too, giving up a league-worst 378.1 yards per game.
- Week 7 will be the debut of new defensive coordinator, Mark Duffner, who last was a DC in 2002
- In 2002, four teams passed for more than 4,000 yards; this year only 12 teams are currently on pace to pass for LESS than 4,000
- New starting RB Nick Chubb has a TOTAL of 16 touches, all rushes, and has never had more than 3 touches in a game.
- Per Pro Football Focus, Baker has lost approximately 182 yards passing due to drops and is one of the QBs being hurt the most by his receivers
Sam Darnold, vs. MIN ($4,900)
- QB22 on the Sun-Mon slate.
- Darnold is coming off back to back 19+ point games.
- His price dropped $400 after his second-best scoring game of the year.
- Performance isn’t the reason for the price drop; he averaged a line of 239/2/1 the last two weeks.
- Darnold will likely not be highly owned as people will be afraid of the Minnesota defense.
- MIN has not been as good defensively as their reputation; they allow 9th most points per game to QBs in DraftKings
- MIN allowing an average line of 303.8/2/0.5, good for 19.7 points per game
- The MIN defense will be without Everson Griffin, Andrew Sendejo, and possibly Linval Joseph, in addition to having to place rookie first-round CB Mike Hughes on IR this week.
Corey Clement, vs. CAR ($4,700)
- Clement is RB24 on the Sun-Mon slate.
- Was 11/43/1 last week after being a late go for the game and looks fully back from his quad injury.
- Clement has just 5 fewer touches than Wendell Smallwood despite playing in two fewer games.
- Clement is much more efficient as a runner RB15 in EFF per NFL Next Gen Stats; Smallwood is RB31.
- Clement has been a more dynamic receiving option: he leads PHI RBs in RACR (4.35 vs. 1.85 for Smallwood), and YAC (125 vs 59 for Smallwood).
Kerryon Johnson, @MIA ($4,500)
- Johnson is RB29 on the Sun-Mon slate.
- Johnson is clearly the best RB on Detroit, leading the group in yards, carries, yards per touch and yards per carry.
- The main pass-catching back for Detroit, Theo Riddick, has been ruled out for Week 7.
- Kerryon has 68 yards receiving despite having -11 air yards, thanks to his 81 YAC.
- Miami allows the fifth most points per game to RBs in DraftKings (32.0), including the 3rd most receptions to RBs and 2nd most passing TDs to RBs.
- LeGarrette Blount has 3 catches on the year. Johnson has 13 on 15 targets.
Duke Johnson Jr., vs. TB ($4,000)
- Duke is RB38 on the Sun-Mon slate.
- With the Carlos Hyde trade, 20 touches per game are up for grabs.
- Again, Nick Chubb has 16 TOTAL touches this year.
- Duke is averaging 8.3 yards per touch on 33 total touches, compared to Chubbs’ unsustainable 10.8 yards per touch on his 16.
- Last year, Duke averaged 4.2 yards per carry, 4.6 receptions per game, 43.3 receiving yards per game, 6.7 yards per touch, and led the team in total yards from scrimmage.
- Tampa is REALLY bad on defense (see Baker’s section above) and allows the 7th most points per game to RBs (30.3).
- TB has allowed the same amount of rushing and receiving yards to RBs (333) and are tied for the second most passing TDs to RBs (3).
- The TB/CLE game has the fourth highest projected score, per Las Vegas betting lines, and the most positive movement among the four highest totals.
Jermaine Kearse, vs. MIN ($4,100)
- Kearse is way down at WR49 on the Sun-Mon slate.
- Jermaine is second on the team in targets (27) and the current leader, Quincy Enunwa, has been ruled out for Sunday.
- Last week against the Indianapolis Colts, Kearse had 10 targets, 9 receptions, and 94 yards; all season highs.
- The 10 targets Kearse received in Week 6 was just the third time Sam Darnold has targeted one player more 10 or more times.
- The other two times were both Quincy Enunwa (Week 1: 10 and Week 2: 11).
- Terrelle Pryor is doubtful with a groin injury and Robby Anderson has a hamstring injury.
- CBs Trumaine Johnson is doubtful and Buster Skrine is out with PPR-God Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs coming to town.
Willie Snead IV, vs. NO ($4,000)
- Snead is even lower than Kearse, at WR53 on the Sun-Mon slate.
- P.J. Williams will likely be covering Snead for most of the game.
- Despite holding Jamison Crowder to 4 receptions for 55 yards last week, Williams is still surrendering a 144.4 passer rating.
- The last three weeks, Willie is averaging 8 targets, 6 receptions, and 57 yards, and has not had fewer than 5 targets any week this year.
- Snead leads the Baltimore Ravens in YAC and has the highest RACR among the WRs.
- The Saints are allowing the most points per game to WRs in DraftKings, and are 30th in Defensive DVOA vs. Other WRs (non-WR1 and WR2) per Football Outsiders.
- Willie’s middle name is Lee, which is hilarious to me because Willie Lee Snead IV absolutely sounds like a fictional character who attempted to assassinate the President in a Tom Clancy novel.
C.J. Uzomah, @KC ($3,400)
- Uzomah is the TE15 on the Sun-Mon slate.
- Tyler Kroft (who was never a real threat to Uzomah anyway) has been ruled out for this game.
- Last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Uzomah had 7 targets, 6 catches, and 54 yards; all season highs.
- The Steelers give up the second most points per game to TEs in DraftKings this year, the third place team is the Kansas City Chiefs.
- Kansas City has allowed the most receiving yards to TEs this year, 64 more than the next team (TB).
- KC will likely be without Eric Berry again, and also have Justin Houston listed as doubtful.
- This game has the highest game total, 58 points, and should be a shootout between the 1st and 6th highest scoring teams this year.