FFStatistics Division Breakdown Part 3/8 – AFC East
The AFC East
When 2018 started I think we all knew who would end up on top with the other three scraping for second place. Now while the Dolphins stayed relevant in the Wild Card hunt for a little while, mostly due to the Indianapolis Colts slow start, and people questioned whether the Patriots were all washed up. The division played out exactly how we all knew it would. To top it off, those same Patriots as we all know took home the Lombardi Trophy. In a game that left a lot of people wanting more, but a game that showed that coaching and defense can still make the difference.
Two of the teams brought in new quarterbacks to see if they could lead their franchize one day. Another welcomed back their injured starter and the last just relied on an old man that just seems to be able to do it at the right times still. He needed some help on February 3rd from that coach and defense but you can’t take away the ring now. Congrats to the Pats for taking home the crown in the 2018 season.
New England Patriots (11-5) Division/ AFC/ Super Bowl Champ
2018 started out with a victory over the Houston Texans and DeSean Watson in his return from a torn ACL and although not a blowout, the Pats got the win, Gronk looked like Gronk, and they were 1-0. The next two weeks did not go as planned though. In an AFC Title Game rematch with the Jacksonville Jaguars, they were held in check in a 31-20 loss on the road and in Week 3, on the road again, they took it on the chin from the Detroit Lions and their ex Defensive Coordinator. The questions were starting already.
They would soon be answered as New England would then win six games in a row and eight of the next nine. They would lose a miracle game in Miami and a tough unexpected defensive battle at Pittsburgh. Throw in a loss at Tennessee in the middle and they had a 3-5 record on the road. The Pats wouldn’t lose another game though as they would run the gauntlet in the AFC and finish with a dominant defensive performance over Sean McVay and one of the best offenses in the league.
New England Offense
2018 was a bit of a crazy year for the eventual Super Bowl champion Patriots. Between Weeks 1-10, prior to their bye week, they averaged 268.7 PaYards per Game on 37.1 PaATT and 98.5 RuYards on 27.7 RuATT per Game. In contrast to the second half of the season, they averaged 267.8 PaYards on 33.2 PaATT per Game which is not that big of a change outside of the PaATT per Game (-2.9 per Game). The running game took off though as the Pats averaged 158.67 RuYards on 34.16 RuATT per Game. They went through a shift after the Bye and started pounding the rock and it worked (+6.46 RuATT, +60.17 RuYards per Game). This would have ranked second in the league over 16 games. Their current starting five on the O-Line is all under contract with the exception of Trent Brown who is an Unrestricted Free Agent.
Now that O-Line kept Brady the third cleanest QB in the league this season so is this just something that happened because Tom Brady is aging? Maybe because the weather changed and Running Backs have an advantage over the defenders more so than normal? Or maybe they were just winning and running the clock out. Ultimately Bill (Belichick) is going to do what Bill is going to do but this is absolutely something to take note of. The result was also a two Point per Game drop on average.
- Points Per Game 2017-2018 Difference (28.6, 27.3, -1.3)
- Yards Per Game 2017-2018 Difference (394.2, 393.4, -0.8)
- First Downs Per Game 2017-2018 Difference (24.31, 22.81, -1.06)
- Third Down Conversion Rate 2017-2018 Difference (40.6, 40.8, -0.2)
- Penalties Per Game 2017-2018 Difference (5.93, 5.81, -0.12)
- Turnover Differential 2017-2018 Difference (+6, +10, +4)
The New England defense did benefit though as the Pats allowed over 20 points in a game eight times in the first 10 games. After the Bye, they only allowed more than 17 points in a game once. In fact, if you take the entire amount of points allowed from Week 12-17 (89), and compare it to just Weeks 2, 6, 7, and 10, they allowed 47 fewer points. It seems like the change might have only been good for fantasy Running Backs but it benefited the whole team in real life tremendously.
|G#||Opp||Spread||Over/Under||Result||vs. Line||OU Result|
Results vs. Line: 11-7-0
As Underdog vs. Line: 1-0-0
Favored vs. Line: 10-7-0
Over: 7 Under: 11 Push: 0
Tom Brady (AKA: The GOAT, TB12, Tom Terrific, or my favorite Tom “F******G” Brady)
No matter if you think Brady is the best to ever do it or not isn’t all that important. Nobody can deny he is the greatest “Winner” in the game and that’s what they’re trying to do. This season was definitely not his finest and his performance in the big game wasn’t memorable but there were still times Tom looked Terrific. The vast majority have a bad taste in their mouths if they owned Brady this year and we may be seeing him enter “streamer” territory.
He still threw the ball plenty (570, Ninth) but it was the fewest PaATT Brady has had since 2010 when he has played a full 16 games. 2018 was also the lowest Completion % (65.8%) in three seasons. Here are a few other interesting numbers.
Excludes 2016, 12 Games Played (*)
- *Yards – Fewest since 2014 (4,355)
- *TDs – Fewest since 2013 (29)
- TD Rate – Lowest since 2013 (5.1%)
- INTs – Most since 2013 (11)
- INT Rate – Highest since 2011 (1.9%)
- Yards per Attempt – Lowest since 2015 (7.6)
- Yards per Completion – Lowest since 2014 (11.6)
- QB Rate – Lowest since 2014 (97.7)
- Total QBR – Lowest since 2015 (68,8)
Brady’s 2018 Season
- QB14, 280.4 Fan Points
- Completed 375/570 Attempts (65.8%)
- 4,355 Yards (7.6 Y/A – 11.6 Y/C)
- 29 TDs (5.1% TD Rate) 11 INT (1.9% INT Rate)
- 23 RuAtt, 35 Yards, 2 TD
- Total QBR 68.8 (QB Rate 97.7)
As you can see, this was a down year for Brady. The amount of top-five finishes decreased (12.7%) which isn’t a huge margin but the percentage of top-twelve finishes decreased by 22.98%. That is a pretty big margin. I threw in a QB that I will breakdown later, Josh Allen, for comparison. Nobody is going to tell you Allen is better than Brady in real life of course but the fall off for QB greats can be steep and quick as we saw with Peyton Manning.
The Patriots Running Backs
As per usual, the Patriots RB room is crowded and hard to predict in 2018 when everyone is healthy. Injuries made it a bit easier this year but that’s not to say there weren’t still some very confusing and frustrating moments if you put stock into the backfield from New England. They averaged 29.9 RuATT (Ninth) as a team which can work for two RBs but four is a bit much. Sometimes even five when you toss in the work Cordarrelle Patterson received here and there or Week 1 with Jeremy Hil. It all started at the draft. Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead on average went 27th and 28th respectively with James White going a bit later (42nd) among RBs. None of them in the top 68 (Overall) in preseason ADP.
Running Back Touch Per Snap Rate
(Percent of snaps the player receives a Touch.)
- Sony Michel – 322 Total Snaps, 216 Touches/ 67.08%
- James White – 600, 181/ 30.17%
- Rex Burkhead – 151, 71/ 47.02%
Michel’s season started out the exact way one wouldn’t want. After suffering a knee injury in practice on August 6th, Michel wouldn’t see game action until Week 2. The Pats would ease their rookie into the role through Weeks 2-3 (per Game Avg – 13 Touches, 45 Yards, 0 TDs). When Week 4 hit, it was pedal to the metal with Michel (Week 4-6 per Game Avg – 22.6 Touches, 109.3 Yards, 1.3 TDs). In Week 7, Sony suffered an injury early in the game after only five Touches and 35 Yards and much like his Week 2-3, they took it easy on his workload with 11 Touches.
For the rest of the season, Michel averaged 16 Touches per Game for 82.83 Yard and he only scored twice in the final six games but he was the victim of the James Develin TD Vulture effect. Develin stole 4 TDs off Michel’s plate between Weeks 10-14. On top of that stretch, Rex Burkhead returned from injury and the backfield was as crowded as ever. Unless a move is made it doesn’t look to be getting any less crowded. The three main guys are all under contract until 2021 at the earliest (White, Burkhead – 2021, Michel – 2023).
Michel’s 2018 Season
- RB25, 132.1 Fan Points
- 209 RuAtt (16.1 AttP/G), 931 Yards (58.9 YdP/G), 4 100 Yard Game
- Caught 7/11 Targets, 50 Yards (7.1 Y/R)
- 6 RuTD, 0 ReTD (6 Total)
- 216 Touches, 981 Yards (4.5 Y/T)
In total, Michel averaged the sixth most Yards Created in the league and the eighth most total (1.85, 399) in a season that he missed 3 full games and a large part of another. His 209 RuATT ranked 14th in the league and the 43 Red Zone Touches were the eighth most. The 10 Goal Line Touches ranked ninth in the league and even though his Touch per Snap Rate is very high (67.08%), teams still aren’t stacking the box as much as they should (21.5% Staked Front Rate, 30th) with the fear of Tom burning them. As LeGarrette Blount has shown us, you don’t need to be extremely talented to be a viable fantasy asset in this role.
James White just had the best season of his five-year career and it wasn’t even close. White saw career highs in RuATT (94), Yards (425), TDs (5), ATT per Game (5.9), Yard per ATT (4.5), Yards per Game (26.6), Targets (123), Receptions (87), RecYards (751), ReTD (7), RecYards per Game (46.9), Rec per Game (5.4), Total Touches (181), Touches per Game (11.3), Total Yards (1,176), Total TDs (12), and Yards per Touch (6.5). In pretty much every way you can think of, it was a career year for White.
White’s 2018 Season
- RB11, 189.6 Fan Points
- 94 RuAtt (5.9 AttP/G), 425 Yards (26.6 YdP/G), 0 100 Yard Game
- Caught 87/123 Targets, 751 Yards (8.8 Y/R)
- 5 RuTD, 7 ReTD (12 Total)
- 181 Touches, 1,176 Yards (6.5 Y/T)
Certainly, White only had a 54.3% Snap Share (24th) and is never going to carry the ball 20 times in a game but he did receive double-digit carries twice this season. Only the second and third time he has done this. Whites 123 Targets ranked second among RBs this season and the 87 Receptions were third in the league. He had 37 Red Zone Touches (12th), seven Goal Line Carries (18th), 17.3 Fan Points per Game (10th), 1.27 Fan Points per Opportunity (12th), 6.5 Yards per Touch (Fifth), and 12 total TDs (8th). Can we trust it moving forward with a part-time player is the question here.
So as you can see above, White has been on a steady rise up the ranks and he plays in what is still in a top offense but he is a perfect case of “opportunity is key.” His 133 Yards Created ranked 46th in the league, 0.73 Yards Created per ATT were 53rd, and 15.5% Juke Rate is 53rd in the league. All that production with the Snap Share and the agility metrics tells me he better stay in New England’s system to be a factor. As you can see below though, as Sony and Burkhead got healthy, Whites production went way down.
Rex Burkhead And The Rest
Burkhead entered 2018 one spot behind Sony Michel in consensus ADP but would get the first crack at the job due to the Michel injury. In Week 1 he received 19 Touches but was only able to muster an unimpressive 69 total Yards and didn’t cross the goal line. Jeremy Hill would receive five Touches and totaled 31 Yards prior to suffering a season-ending ACL tear. Burkhead would enter concussion protocol prior to Week 2 but was able to play. The shift would begin to Sony being the primary running downs Back though. Burkhead would only receive six Touches in Week 2 compared to Michel’s 11. Sony wouldn’t see fewer than 11 Touches the rest of the season outside of the week he was injured and in Week 3 He would suffer a neck injury that would land him on the IR until Week 12.
Following the return from the neck injury, Burkhead would take over the “Swiss Army Knife” role for the Pats getting four or more RuATT and two or more Targets in each game. He would only eclipse 10 or more Touches once and score just once as well though. Cordarrelle Patterson even had a little run while Michel was banged up in the middle of the season when he totaled 22 Touches for 106 Yards and a score. His usage would be sparse though following the Bye week. Finally, James Develin… The TD vulture extraordinaire. Many a Sony or White owners would be frustrated with this man as he scored four TDs in a four-game stretch (Weeks 10-14).
The Wide Outs
Julien Edelman’s season started off on a sour note with a PED suspension of four games so the Pats had to figure it out. They Chris Hogan, Philip Dorsett, and the above mentioned Patterson. Not a list of All Pro’s but a list of upside guys. After Week 1 a move was necessary. The Pats would complete a move following Week 2 that would bring Josh Gordon from Cleveland to New England for a 2019 fifth-round pick. They also received a conditional seventh-round pick in the coming draft. Hogan was a relative non-factor, Dorsett had ups and downs, Patterson became an “RB”, and Gordon would eventually step away. This position is a big-time question in 2019.
WR Free Agents Heading Into ’19/Age/ Salary/ Status
- Josh Gordon/ 28/ 790,000/ RFA
- Chris Hogan/ 30/ 4,000,000/ UFA
- Philip Dorsett/ 26/ 2,033,854/ UFA
- Cordarrelle Patterson/ 28/ 4,250,000/ UFA
- Riley McCarron/ 25/ N/A/ UFA
- Cody Hollister/ 25/ 480,000/ ERFA
So, Josh Gordon has never been out of the limelight and unfortunately, about 90% of it was not for his play on the field. Well, he was plunged into the most polarizing team in the league and although not exactly consistent, he did have some stellar moments. They started him off slow, not having him play Week 3 and only playing 18 total snaps in both Weeks 4-5. From Week 6 until Week 15 Gordon wouldn’t see fewer than 65% of the offensive snaps and in all but two weeks, Gordon saw 80% or more. Following Week 15, the WR would unexpectedly step away from the team and it would come out later that he had violated the terms of his reinstatement and would again be suspended indefinitely. Rumors have surfaced recently of his possible reinstatement prior to the 2019 season but that isn’t known for sure.
Gordon’s Per Game Totals
- (Weeks 4-5) – Caught 1.5/2.5 Targets, 24.5 Yards, 0.5 TDs, 18 Snaps per Game (36 Total)
- (Weeks 6-15) – Caught 3.8/6.6 Targets, 68.8 Yards, 0.3 TDs, 58.7 Snaps per Game (Nine Games, 529 Total)
Josh Gordon essentially eliminated Dorsett from the picture he had a decent little run to start the season.
- Weeks 1-5 (Caught 3.8/5.8 Targets, 38 Yards, 0.4 TDs – w/ limited or no Gordon)
- 6-15 (Caught 0.9/0.9 Targets, 7.3 Yards, 0 TDs – w/ Gordon)
- 16-17 (Caught 2.5/2.5 Targets, 17 Yards, 0.5 TDs – w/ no Gordon, 0 Targets in Week 16)
Snap Totals (%)
- Dorsett Weeks 1-17 (57, 56, 45, 57, 42, 3, 8, 5, 12, 15, BYE, 9, 16, 7, 2, 27, 39)
- Gordon Weeks 1-17 (NA, NA, 0, 18, 18, 63, 61, 64, 57, 55, BYE, 53, 48, 71, 57, NA, NA)
So as I stated above and as I’m sure you had already heard. Edelman served a four-game PED suspension to start the season. If you hadn’t heard, welcome to Earth… Moving along. When Edelman returned he took the role of New England’s WR1 and never gave it back. He led the team in Targets, Receptions, Yards, and TDs among the pass catchers. He had the second highest Yards per Game (70.8), Yards per Reception (11.5), the highest Yards per Touch (11.5, Because he will run the ball. Avg RuATT per season – 5.3, two seasons 10+), to go with his six TDs (Second most). Remember only nine games played.
Other Notable Stats (League Rank)
- 25.7% Target Share (12th)
- 31.2% Red Zone Target Share (Sixth)
- 74 Receptions (20th)
- 850 RecYards (24th)
- 14 Red Zone Receptions (Seventh)
- 17.3 FanPoints per Game (12th)
- 0.52 FanPoints per Route Ran (19th)
Edelman’s 2018 Season
- WR23, 133.4 Fan Points
- Caught 74/108 Targets (68.5%) 6.2 P/G
- 850 Yards (11.5 Y/R, 7.87 Y/T) 2 100 Yard games
- 6 TDs
Edelman is pretty much the only WR of real significance the Pats have under contract in 2019 (Through 2020). We will see what Braxton barrios can bring to the table in his return from the IR (Since Sep 1st). Also, there are a couple others hanging out around the locker room (Matthew Slater, Damoun Patterson – 2020, Darren Andrews – 2021).
Is This The End?
Is this the end of an era? What most think of when the name Rob Gronkowski comes up (Football related only) is the best TE of all time. Second would be injuries. The latter might be taking to much of a tole on the body of “Gronk.” He played in 13 games for just the sixth time in nine seasons and even when on the field, didn’t look all that healthy.
When you exclude his rookie season, fourth (Seven games played) and seventh (Eight games played) seasons in the league, Gronkowski, with a minimum of 11 Games played, had the fewest Targets (72), Receptions (47), Yards (682), TDs (3), Rec per Game (3.6), and Yards per Game (52.5, Since rookie season) of his career. His metrics though are not all bad. He was fourth in the league in Snap Share (92.6%), eighth in End Zone Target Share (25.9%), sixth in AirYards (507), fifth in Yard per Rec (14.5), ninth in Yards per Target (9.5), and number one in Avg Target Distance (13.5). What went wrong?
Well, to say the least, this is TE and if you only score three TDs, you better have 1,000 receiving yards because TDs drive this position more than any other in fantasy. There are rumors of a possible retirement from the big fella. He has the rings and the money, why risk the body anymore is the main question. Unfortunately, we probably won’t know for a while but if he does return to the Pats, Gronk is under contract until 2020. This is going to be a waiting game.
Gronks’s 2018 Season
- TE11, 84.2 Fan Points
- Caught 47/72 Targets (65.3) 3.6 P/G
- 682 Yards (14.2 Y/R, 9.4 Y/T) 2 100 Yard Games
- 3 TDs
2018 Fantasy Relevant Draftees
31th Overall, RB Sony Michel
- 216 RuAtt, 981 Yards, 6 TDs
210th Overall, WR Braxton Barrios
- Placed on IR September 1st.
219h Overall, QB Danny Etling
- On The NE practice squad since September 2nd.
250th Overall, TE Ryan Izzo
- Placed on IR on September 2nd.
With the 32nd pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the New England Patriots select…
You never know when it comes to the Pats. They’re always looking to make a move to get the best advantage and are not afraid to do so. They had two first round picks in the 2018 Draft and has extra in the second and third rounds this year. Certainly, they could use some WR help if Josh Gordon continues to not pan out and they choose not to resign any of their six WR Free Agents. This years WR class is thought to be the best since 2014 in many’s eyes.
2019 Cap Space $20,463,221
2019 will be an interesting year for New England depending on what happens in a few places. Gronkowski’s choice to either retire or not will be on most people’s minds. They do have Stephen Anderson, whom they acquired off of waivers after Houston parted ways with him. The former Bama TE was activated late in the season but was never used. What are they going to do at WR with all those Free Agents? I would expect them to draft someone this year if a move is not made prior.
Do they let Burkhead go and run with Sony and James? Burkhead’s Dead Cap amount is $2,000,000 in ’19. The style of play they showed late in the year may have given their ceiling a hit but it dramatically lowered the pressure on the defense and it showed. Tom isn’t getting any younger and most of the O-Line is under contract. Bill will always call what he wants to call but he might want to call a few more runs in ’19 as well… Maybe…
Miami Dolphins (7-9)
In Miami, 2018 started out as good as a Dolphins fan, player, or coach could have hoped. Three straight wins out the gate had everyone in south beach feeling good. They then became the first victim in the Patriots run and would lose six out of eight games and although they had slim hopes at a playoff spot until mid-season, these hopes were really only pipe dreams as they lost their Quarterback from Week 6-10 and by the time he was back it was too late.
The Phins would win two games before losing their final three to fail to finish with a 500 or worse record for the ninth time in ten seasons. As a result, the coaching staff has since gotten a complete makeover, the quarterback is thought to be on the way out and the running back and pass-catching rooms are filled with questions.
2018 started out alright in Miami. A 3-0 record and a 25.0 Point per Game average. The good feelings would soon fade though as they would lose six of the next eight games and fail to score more than 21 in five of the eight as well. Miami would win the next two games, including their “Super Bowl” against the Patriots that they won on an insane play with Kenyan Drake scoring after a double lateral. This win actually got Miami to 7-6 and kept the slimmest of playoff hopes alive.
They would follow that up with three straight defeats in which they failed to score more than 17 points in any of them. The playoff hopes were through and big changes were on the horizon. The reports have led us to believe they would release their QB but nothing is final, They have seven O-Line Free Agents, and they moved on from the old coaching regime with Adam Gase and brought in Patriots assistant Brian Flores to try and turn around what was a pretty sad season-long effort…
Season Ranks (Totals)
- 31st in First Downs (252)
- 31st in Yards (4,638)
- 30th in PaYards (2,900)
- 18th in RuYards (1,738)
- 26th in Points per Game (319)
- Points Per Game 2017-2018 Differences (17.6, 19.9, +2.3)
- Yards Per Game 2017-2018 Differences(307.7, 289.9, -17.8)
- First Downs Per Game 2017-2018 Differences (17.72, 15.75, -1.97)
- Third Down Conversion Rate 2017-2018 Differences (31.7, 30.1, -1.6)
- Penalties Per Game 2017-2018 Differences (8.56, 6.75, -1.81)
- Turnover Differential 2017-2018 Difference (-14, 5, +19)
… Flores has his work cut out for him.
|G#||Opp||Spread||Over/Under||Result||vs. Line||OU Result|
Results vs. Line: 8-8-0
As Underdog vs. Line: 5-7-0
Favored vs. Line: 3-1-0
Over: 8 Under: 8 Push: 0
In 2018 the tandem of Tannehill, Osweiler, and Fales was pretty uninspiring (Let’s be fair, Fales didn’t play). Tannehill, Osweiler, and Fales… Sounds like a law firm of real estate agency… Maybe they have a future there because it more than likely won’t be with the Dolphins. All jokes aside though. The season for Tannehill was the metaphorical nail in the coffin for his Miami career if the rumors are true. He had the lowest Yards per Game (179.9), lowest Total QBR (33.1), highest Sack Rate (11.3%) and produced the fewest QB Wins in his career. Mind you he only played 11 games but having produced on winning record in six seasons and coming off a second straight injury-shortened year doesn’t give the Miami brass much hope it appears.
Tannehill’s 2018 Season
- QB29, 142 Fan Points
- Completed 176/274 Attempts (64.2%)
- 1,979 Yards (7.2 Y/A – 11.2 Y/C)
- 17 TDs (6.2% TD Rate) 9 INT (3.3% INT Rate)
- 32 RuAtt, 145 Yards, 0 TD
- Total QBR 33.1 (QB Rate 92.7)
This was the first season Tannehill had not scored a rushing TD which is one of the things that kept him fantasy relevant. He’s never been a running QB, but a mobile one sure and that 200 Yards and 1-2 TDs is always helpful. Tannehill did, however, catch a TD this year. That is not something to count on though unless he becomes a WR. Brock Osweiler produced a decent 2-3 record in a Backup role for Tannehill while he was out with a shoulder injury for five weeks in the middle of the season.
The Crowded Backfield
Everyone got a little piece of the action in 2018. No matter how irrational the method to Gase’s madness. Frank Gore, for the most part, held the rushing duties, Drake the change of pace and end of the season saw the rookie Kalen Ballage and Bradon Bolden have some success. Gore and Bolden are both Free Agents in 2019 but it would seem the wise thing to do would be a move towards a two-headed attack with Drake and Ballage. They will need to figure out if Drake is their guy at least. He is a Free Agent in 2020. More efficiency in the Red Zone would help tremendously as none of the Backs was a real factor near the goal line.
Goal Line Carrie
- Drake (1)
- Gore (1)
- Ballage (0)
- Bolden (0)
Many wanted to see Kenyan Drake take over the full workload this year in Miami but were only left wanting. he had a 61.3% Target Share this season which was good enough for 16th in the league but still less than people wanted. Drake finished as an RB2, but people wanted more. He had the 12th most Receiving Yards (477) and the 13th most Receptions for an RB (53) but the fans begged for more. The 13th most Evaded Tackles (60), 5.8 Yards per Touch (10th), a 34.7% Juke Rate (7th), and 1.52 Yards Created per ATT (20th). More, more, and more is all we heard. As you can see below, He outproduced his volume, but we wanted more…!
- RuYards (-109)
- RuATT (-13)
- Yards per Att (-0.3)
- ATT per Game (-0.8)
- TDs (+1)
- Targets (+25)
- Receptions (+31)
- Yards (+138)
- Yards per Reception (+1.5)
- Receptions per Game (+3.3)
- TDs (+4)
- Total Touches (+12)
- Total Yards (+129)
- Yard per Touch (+0.4)
- Total TDs (+5)
Drake’s 2018 Season
- RB21, 153.2 Fan Points
- 120 RuAtt (7.5 AttP/G), 535 Yards (33.4 YdP/G), 0 100 Yard Game
- Caught 53/73 Targets, 477 Yards (9.0 Y/R)
- 4 RuTD, 5 ReTD (9 Total)
- 173 Touches, 1,012 Yards (5.8 Y/T)
… And still, everyone wanted more. Well, in 2019 they might get their wish but we will have to see if Drake is the type of player that can handle a bigger workload. He already played on more snaps than Gore in every week except two and it wasn’t enough. It wasn’t enough because of Frank Gore still out-touched Drake in seven of the 14 games they both played in.
Frank Gore And The Rest
However frustrating it may have been for fantasy owners, Frank Gore in some ways had the most efficient season of his career. He had the highest Yard per RuATT since 2012 (4.6), and the highest Yards per Reception of his career (10.3), Efficiency was not his issue even at the ripe ol’ age of 35.
Volume was his issue. Gore had the fewest RuYards per Game, and fewest RuATT per Game since his rookie year, The fewest Receptions and Yards of his career, It was the first time he hadn’t scored a RuTD in a game and the fewest Total Touches in a season since his rookie year. As I stated above, Gore is a free agent but says he still wants to play. He might find suiters limited but there has to be a spot somewhere for a guy that still had the eighth best Juke Rate (33.3%), 17th most Evaded Tackles (56), and the 10th most Yards Created per ATT (1.76).
Bolden is a relative non-factor and a Free Agent but Ballage is interesting. Can he come into 2019 with a bigger role? Maybe he takes over the Gore role and is able to handle the bulk of the RuATT.
The Wide Receivers
In 2018, Miami was one of three teams in the league to not have a Top-50 WR in fantasy. 54, 58, 72, 100, 101, 146, and 149. Those are some high numbers and not in a good way. 54th was the rank of Kenny Stills, the highest ranked Miami WR in ’18. Stills led the team in TDs (6) and Danny Amendola Led the team in Targets (79), Receptions (59), and Yards (575). No other WR had more than 47 Targets, 26 Receptions, 391 Yards receiving, or four TDs. Not a lot to be excited about right? Everyone is still under contract in 2019 except Leonte Carroo.
The Dolphins will more than likely move on from a few of their WRs that are under contract. They could release all of them except Stills and Albert Wilson and only take a $35,096 Dead Cap hit. Speaking of Albert Wilson. There was excitement surrounding him and for good reason. Not because any of his season totals as he was not a high volume player and suffered a season-ending hip injury and was placed on IR on October 24th. He is expected to be back by April but here’s something to think about until then. Especially if the new coaching staff starts making moves.
Wilson’s Interesting Stats (Rank)
- Yards per Reception – 15.0 (25th)
- per Target – 11.2 (Third)
- per Pass Route – 3.15 (Third)
- Catch Rate – 74.3% (Eighth)
- Target Separation – 1.83 (Seventh)
- Drops – 1 (115th)
- FanPoints per Pass Route – 0.78 (First)
- FanPoints per Target – 2.77 (Second)
- Receptions per TD – 6.5
- AirYards – 60 (154th)
If Wilson can stay healthy and he is given more opportunity, there could be something exciting here in 2019. The Phins will likely have a young QB and Wilson is dangerous with the ball in his hands. As you can see above, he is not a deep threat (60 AirYards), but he can take a short one to the house. A reliable short target for a young QB is a great thing as the game is going to speed up for them. They will need reliable targets underneath running short safe routes when things break down.
- With the 42nd pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins selected Mike Gesicki out of Penn State.
- With the 123rd pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins selected Durham Smyth out of Notre Dame.
- September 20th, 2018, the Miami Dolphins acquire Nick O’Leary to their practice squad. Activated October 6th.
- November 29th, 2017. The Miami Dolphins acquire AJ Derby off Waivers from the Denver Broncos. Placed on IR December 4th.
They are trying to find a reliable TE weapon and you would think with Tannehill’s propensity to make short safe throws, but nobody was able to hit. Derby was placed on the IR on December 4th with a foot injury. He did score one of the teams TE TDs. Smyth was almost non-existent with six Receptions on 11 Targets for 50 Yards and didn’t score. Nick O’Leary, had the other TE TD catching eight of his 10 Targets for 86 Yards after his October activation.
Finally, Gesicki was the most targeted with 32 and had the most Receptions (22) and Yards (202) as well. He had a solid rookie TE stretch between Weeks 3-8 averaging 2.5 Receptions on 3.3 Targets a game. He would only total two Receptions on four Targets for ten total Yards over the next five games. So there were signs of promise quickly followed by underwhelming performance. The QB situation, of course, played in as neither QB threw many passes and it never helps a young TE to lose the guy they’ve worked all year with. As a result, you get an uninspiring season.
2018 Fantasy Relevant Draftees
42nd Overall, TE Mike Gesicki
- Caught 22/32 Targets, 202 Yards
123rd Overall, TE Durham Smythe
- Caught 6/11 Targets, 50 Yards
131st Overall, RB Kalen Ballage
- 45 Touches, 247 Yards, 1 TD
With the 13th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins select…
The Phins will likely choose to move on from Ryan Tannehill and it would seem likely they attempt to find his replacement with both other QBs being Free Agents.
2019 Cap Space 16,448,673
Miami has a lot to think about moving into the 2019 season. They have a new coaching staff that has to try and turn around what was one of the worst offenses in the league. They have questions…
- First, they have to figure out what path to take at QB. Do they make the rumors true and release Tannehill. Do they Draft a QB early in the ’19 Draft? Or do they find a bridge to the next couple years where the QB class is expected to be a lot more exciting?
- Will Drake finally get the workload everyone wants for him? Or does this stay a 60/40 split, just with no Gore?
- Who’s going to stay and who’s going to go from the WR corps?
- TE might be the least asked about position as Mike Gesicki should get time to develop.
- What about the O-Line that has Seven Free Agents between the starters and the depth.
A lot of questions…
Buffalo Bills (6-10)
Buffalo was heading into ’18 off a 9-7 season and a birth in the wild card round behind the arm of Tyrod Taylor, aging Running Back and only two victories against a playoff team during the regular season. They would lose to the Jags, move on from their Quarterback and draft a new one in the first round at seventh overall, and hire a new Offensive Coordinator. The fifth since 2013.
The changes didn’t have the desired effect. The Bills started the season with Nathan Peterman under center but quickly switched to their top draft pick. They would lose their first two games before heading into a game with Minnesota that many expected to be a complete blowout… Well, it was, just not the way we expected as the Bills, their young QB, and defense took the Vikings apart in the highlight of their season. Furthermore, the Vikings failed to reach 20 points against Buffalo for the only time in the first 12 weeks.
A three and seven win-loss record in the next 10 games ended all the Bills Mafia’s playoff hopes before they finished strong winning two of the last three. There were flashes of some high potential in the offense and a solid showing by the defense but never enough consistency or health to be a factor.
The Bills entered 2018 with a question at QB, an aging starting RB, and a largely unproven group of pass catchers. The season had a few highs and a lot of lows.
- 3 – Games w/ five or fewer Points
- 5 – Games w/ 10 or fewer Points
- 10 – Games w/ 20 or fewer Points
- 6 – Games w/ 21+ Points
- 2 – Games w/ 27+ Points
The Bills were one of five teams to average less than 300 Yards per Game (298.6, 30th) and one of four teams to average less than 18 Points per Game (16.8, 30th). They finished 31st in PaYards but with a running Qb a low number here can be expected but 31st is far below average. Buffalo was able to produce the 27th most First Downs thanks to their running game and receiving the sixth most First Downs by way of Penalty (38). They finished eighth in First Downs by way of the rush (108). their upside had a cap on it though as they finished tied for dead last in First Downs by way of the pass (137).
Not having a large amount of First Downs by way of the pass isn’t a guaranteed nail in the coffin as Seattle, Dallas, Baltimore, and Chicago all totaled less than 200 and still made the playoffs. The main difference?
First Downs via the Pass (Passing Offense Rank/ Overall Defense Rank/ Scoring Defense Rank)
*Dallas Cowboys (184)
- 23rd/ 7th/ 6th
*Baltimore Ravens (184)
- 22nd/ 1st/ 2nd
*Chicago Bears (177)
- 21st/ 3rd/ 1st
*Seattle Seahawks (156)
- 27th/ 16th/ 11th
Buffalo Bills (137)
- 31st/ 2nd/ 18th
- Points Per Game 2017-2018 Differences (18.9, 16.8, -2.1)
- Yards Per Game 2017-2018 Differences (302.6, 298.6, -4)
- First Downs Per Game 2017-2018 Differences (17.37, 17.68, +0.31)
- Third Down Conversion Rate 2017-2018 Differences (41.9, 31.6, -10.3)
- Penalties Per Game 2017-2018 Differences (6.12, 7.25, +1.13)
- Turnover Differential 2017-2018 Difference(9, -5, -14)
|G#||Opp||Spread||Over/Under||Result||vs. Line||OU Result|
Results vs. Line: 7-9-0
As Underdog vs. Line: 6-7-0
Favored vs. Line: 1-2-0
Over: 7 Under: 9 Push: 0
First of all, the Buffalo Bills would start their season with Nathan Peterman under center and after two interceptions in the first game (Seven total INTs, Five in two starts) of the year, Josh Allen, the Bills rookie, would enter the game and outside of missing four games due to injury (Elbow), he wouldn’t give the job back. Derick Anderson would start two games but be lost to a concussion. Finally, Matt Barkley would win his lone start. But the job was Allen’s as he was handed it back after return from injury.
That was just a quick reminder that Josh Allen had more top-five QB finishes then Tom Brady. Now let’s look at exactly why…
Allen’s 2018 Season
- QB20, 208.1 Fan Points
- Completed 169/320 Attempts (52.8%)
- 2,074 Yards (6.5 Y/A – 12.3 Y/C)
- 10 TDs (3.1% TD Rate) 12 INT (3.8% INT Rate)
- 89 RuAtt, 631 Yards, 8 TD
- Total QBR 52.3 (QB Rate 67.9)
… So as you can see above, Allen’s season was not driven by his arm. Allen was 32nd in the league in Yards per ATT (6.5). Also the 33rd highest Completion % (52.8%), 32nd in Yards per Game (173), 32nd in Passer Rate (67.9). The results were the ninth most INTs (12, 11 Games), and 32nd in PaTDs (10). Nothing about any of that is exciting. Allen did though throw the 13th most Deep Ball ATT (65), so you know he’s going to let it fly. His receivers dropped the 12th most passes (27) in the league also. So it might not have been all bad. Seems like there isn’t a reason to be excited but he also had the 10th most FanPoints per Dropback (0.47). Here’s how he did it.
In contrast, Josh Allen was a rushing machine. He had 89 ATT for 631 Yards and eight TDs. Above all, his eight TDs were tops in the league as well as his Yards per Game (52.6). Allen finished second in the league in Yards (631), QB RuATT per Game (7.4), and Red Zone carries (21). His 89 ATT ranked fourth in the league. This is something that can generally provide a floor for a QB and more so with Allen as he is scrambling most of the time and not running designed runs like Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens. Furthermore, his receiving weapons did start to come on late but we will need to see more from them in ’19.
The Bills RB corps is one of two things. They are either 30 years old or 27 or less. LeSean McCoy and Chris Ivory are both 30 years old and will be Free Agents in 2020. They could both be released for less than $3,400,000 Dead Cap. Chances are one if not both might be gone to start 2019. McCoy in 2018 was no longer the “Shady” we remember. The guy that would dance and make people miss more than anyone since Barry Sanders. Last season alone, McCoy had 97 Evaded Tackles, 507 Yards Created with 15 Breakaway Runs. He ranked third in the league in both and had a 5.2% Breakaway Run Rate (11th).
2018 was nowhere near as impressive with 48 Evaded Tackles (23rd), 248 Yards Created, 5 Breakaway Runs (36th), and a 3.1% Breakaway Run Rate (47th). His metrics were pretty much cut in half. McCoy missed two games due to injury (Rib, Hamstring) and suffered a concussion that made him miss parts of another.
McCoy’s 2018 Season
- RB40, 93.2 Fan Points
- 161 RuAtt (11.5 AttP/G), 514 Yards (36.7 YdP/G), 1 100 Yard Game
- Caught 34/46 Targets, 238 Yards (5.2 Y/R)
- 3 RuTD, 0 ReTD (3 Total)
- 195 Touches, 752 Yards (3.8 Y/T)
Chris Ivory was serviceable in a backup role but would also miss time due to a shoulder injury (Three games). He did average the fewest Yards per RuATT of his career (3.3) but his value when it was somewhat saved by having by far the most Yards per Reception of his Career (15.8). Ivory scored just once.
Similar to the situation in Miami, Everyone but Deonte Thompson is under contract in 2019. The WR corps in Buffalo failed to produce any real fantasy points. They at least had a top-50 WR in ’18 (Zay Jones, 45th). Robert Foster (WR80), the undrafted rookie from Bama, was the next highest WR and had some signs of life. The other six WRs on the team all finished 114th or lower. Foster is a legit deep threat but was largely injured during college so it was unclear really what he would bring to the table. When combined with Allen’s big arm, Foster made some things happen.
Robert Foster Weeks 7-13
- Three 100 Yard Games
- Three TDs
- Avg – Caught 3.6/5 Targets, 73 Yards, 0.4 TDs
- 3+ Targets in each game
- Multiple receptions in all but one game
Zay jones is the one that people are expecting things from though. he had 102 Targets (26th). That’s good. He caught 56 of them. That’s bad. That’s a Catch Rate of 54.9% (89th). Jones though is someone who was really heart by Allen’s lack of passing skills. Only 78 of his 102 Targets received this year were considered catchable. Jones’ Total Target Distance was 1,268 Yards (19th) but he only had 652 Receiving Yards (49th). That’s only 51.4%. In contrast, Michael Thomas had the 26th most Total Target Distance (1,175) and 1,405 Receiving Yards. That’s 119.5%. No, Jones is not the same receiver, but I wanted to use a similar number.
Jones’ Season Numbers
- Caught 56/102 Targets, 652 Yards, 7 TDs
Thes numbers are not fantastic but let’s keep in mind that Jones is only two years into his career and WR is generally a third-year breakout position. If Allen can develop a little more accuracy, Jones could explode in 2019. That’s a big “If” though.
Again, much like the Miami TE situation, there wasn’t much to be excited about in Buffalo.
Logan Thomas – Free Agent
- Caught 12/17 Targets, 77 Yards, 0 TD (6.4 Y/R)
Charles Clay – Signed through 2020 (4,500,000 Dead Cap)
- Caught 21/36 Targets, 184 yards, 0 TD (8.8 Y/R)
Jason Croom – Signed through 2020 (0 Dead Cap)
- Caught 22/35 Targets, 259 Yards, 1 TD (11.8 Y/R)
The Undrafted rookie out of Tennessee, Jason Croom had the best season of the group and with how unimpressive the signing of Charles Clay has been, he might have earned himself a role moving forward.
- Note: The Bills have released Charles Clay (2/15/2019)
2018 Fantasy Relevant Draftees
7th Overall, QB Josh Allen
- Completed 169/320 Attempts, 2,074 Yards, 10 TDs, 12 INTs, 89 RuATT, 631 Yards, 8 TDs
187th Overall, WR Ray-Ray Mcloud
- Caught 5/6 Targets, 36 Yards, 2 RuATT, 4 Yards
255th Overall, WR Austin Proehl
- Cut by Buffalo on September 2nd, Signed to Tennessee on the 3rd and released a day later before being picked up by the Rams on October 23rd.
With the 9th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select…
Buffalo would be wise to give their now second-year QB, Josh Allen some help this year. Either to help an aging RB room or an unproven WR corps. TE is also a need. They have Croom (UDFA), who was the most effective of the group and is very cheap but there are some very good ones coming out in 2019. The starting O-Line is 60% Free Agents as well.
2019 Cap Space 77,339,877
Buffalo has a ton of money to spend this off-season as you can see above. Their gonna need to spend some of it on their O-Line as three of their five starters are Free Agents in 2019 (John Groy, Jordan Mills, John Miller) and the Bills will also have to figure out the backfield. Two 30-year-old RBs that have one year left on their deal and minimal Dead Cap could mean moves will be made. They have moved on from Charles Clay at TE. So they either like what they saw in Croom or there are plans to draft one from a deep class. They have a young WR corps but an inaccurate QB that’s quick to run. That’s good for fantasy and can be sustained as long as he can remain healthy. Allen is athletic enough do it for at least a few more years but it might not be the most effective way to win games and he will have to improve as a passer if he is to stick around long term.
New York Jets (4-12)
First of all, the Jets are a team that seems to be in a constant rebuild. If a couple things are going right over here, then ten go wrong over there. They started the new season with a solid victory in their first-round Quarterbacks debut over Detroit but would follow that with three straight defeats. Then they won two straight games and followed it with another three loses. One more victory and yet another three-game losing streak. The season was as up and down as it gets.
The 4-12 finish capped off the third straight season of five or fewer victories, the fourth in the last five seasons. Certainly, there were signs of promise and reasons to be excited for the Jets though. A young offensive core that showed some of what they are possibly capable of producing in the future on a regular basis but they have a long hill to climb. As does the rest of the east as long as the Pats are on Bill and Toms’s Excellent Adventure. The 250 win % cost Todd Bowells his job and the Jets brought in Adam Gase after Miami let him go.
New York Offense
When the Jets were good in 2018, they were pretty good. Their young Offensive corps made some pretty decent strides this year. The rookie QB showed growth with his surrounding cast. They might have an RB for the future but there are rumors of possible moves there. They have a good young slot receiver (When healthy) and a dangerous deep threat that showed some signs of becoming more this year and an emerging, now second-year TE. Unfortunately, those highs were few and far between. The inconsistencies in the offensive production were clearly evident and injuries during the season didn’t help matters.
Win/ Loss Point Totals
- Points in Wins – 48, 34, 42, 27 (Avg 37,75) Total 151
- Points in Losses – 12, 17, 12, 17, 10, 6, 10, 13, 22, 22, 38, 3 (Avg 14.33) Total 172
New York scored 19 fewer points in four victories than they did in 12 defeats. Of course, you going to score more in wins but an average difference of 23.42 Points per Game is a Grand Canyon of a gap. There were signs of promise though even in some losses as they put up a great fight with the Green Bay Packers in a shootout, overtime loss in Week 16 and had a couple other games prior with 22 total points. The end was a gut check from the Champs in Week 17.
- Points Per Game 2017-2018 Differences (18.6, 20.8, +2.2)
- Yards Per Game 2017-2018 Differences (305.3, 299.2, -6.1)
- First Downs Per Game 2017-2018 Differences (16.82, 16.12, -0.6)
- Third Down Conversion Rate 2017-2018 Differences (35.5, 32.2, -3.3)
- Penalties Per Game 2017-2018 Differences (7.43, 7.12, -0.31)
- Turnover Differential 2017-2018 Difference (-4, -10, -6)
|G#||Opp||Spread||Over/Under||Result||vs. Line||OU Result|
Results vs. Line: 5-10-1
As Underdog vs. Line: 3-8-1
Favored vs. Line: 2-2-0
Over: 10 Under: 6 Push: 0
The Jets took Sam Darnold with the third pick in the 2018 Draft and handed him the keys heading into Week 1. He would hit the ground running helping the Jets to a 48-17 victory over the Detroit Lions and he would put up the second highest Passer Rating (116.8), Yards per ATT (9.43), and Completion % (76.19) in a game of his rookie season.
Over the next eight games, Darnold would lose some of his momentum and Avg fewer TDs than INTs (1.1, 1.6), and only throw more TDs than INTs in two of the nine games. The young QB would bounce back over the final four weeks averaging 20 Completions on 31.3 PaATT for 232.8 Yards. His TD to INT ratio would completely flip around as he threw 1.5 TDs par Game and only threw one INT through the stretch. Darnold threw multiple TDs in only five of his 13 games played and had four games with multiple INTs. When he returned from his foot injury in Week 14, the TD to INT ratio flipped from 1/1.4 to 6/1.
Darnold’s 2018 Season
- QB26, 168.4 Fan Points
- Completed 249/414 Attempts (57.7%)
- 2,865 Yards (6.9 Y/A – 12.0 Y/C)
- 14 TDs (4.1% TD Rate) 15 INT (3.6% INT Rate)
- 44 RuAtt, 138 Yards, 1 TD
- Total QBR 47.9 (QB Rate 77.6)
Darnold added in a little bit of a running game with the 13th most carries (44) among QBs, the 10th most Red Zone carries (11), and scored a TD. In college, he did always add a little bit with his legs with at least 62 RuATT in each year he started and scored seven total TDs. This should be something he can add to boost his value a little bit while he learns the position better. Josh McCown is a Free Agent in 2019.
At the start of the season with Isaiah Crowell as their starting RB, Bilal Powell in the timeshare role, and Elijah McGuire on the IR with a foot injury. They would also Draft Trenton Cannon out of Virginia State. Through the first 10 Weeks of the season, Crowell was the RB14 in Standard leagues and the RB22 in PPR. An RB2 in all formats. Much of this came from three monster weeks (1, 3, 5) where he scored five TDs and even had a 200 Yards rushing performance. He had two 100+ Yards games and that even includes a game with 0 Yards rushing. That’s not a typo, 0 Yards. Crowell only scored one TD following Week 5 and failed to reach 50 Yards rushing in all but one game.
Reports are now flying around that he will likely be released. The jets can get out of the contract for $2,000,000 Dead Cap. Powell is a Free Agent so the young RBs are likely taking the reigns in ’19 depending on what happens in Free Agency.
Crowell’s 2018 Season
- RB29, 119.7 Fan Points
- 143 RuAtt (11.0 AttP/G), 685 Yards (52.6 YdP/G), 1 100 Yard Game
- Caught 21/28 Targets, 152 Yards (7.2 Y/R)
- 6 RuTD, 0 ReTD (6 Total)
- 164 Touches, 837 Yards (5.1 Y/T)
The Jets second-year RB started the season on the IR (Foot) but would be activated for Week 9. The duties would be shared over his first four games back from injury and McGuire would take the lesser share. Crowell in the majority role.
Per game Avg
- First four games (8.3 Touches, 41.3 Yards, 0 TDs, Caught 2.8/3.8 Targets, 4.9 Y/T)
- Last four games (19.6 Touches, 75 Yards, 1 TD, Caught 2/4 Targets, 3.8 Y/T)
McGuire’s season totals might not seem all that great. He definitely excelled at a moderate level when he received the majority role in the backfield. As far as scoring and opportunity go anyways. His efficiency dropped by over a full yard (1.1). So what to make of this? generally, efficiency will go down as volume goes up but that is a considerable difference and might be a little bit of the reason for rumors of the jets not being satisfied at the RB position. McGuire received 31 Targets in eight games but Trenton Cannon will likely stay on as the reserve/ pass-catching Back. The role he took over after Bilal Powell went on the IR. Unless they find someone they think can do it all…
*Note: Possible Lev Bell landing spot.
In 2017, Robby Anderson finished the season with exactly 200 points in PPR leagues and finished WR18. The season was about 90% driven by a five-game stretch in which Anderson Caught 4.6/6.6 Targets for 83.6 Yards and 1.2 TDs (18.17 Y/R). This is a 16 games pace of 74 Receptions, 106 Targets, 1,338 Yards, and 19 TDs. seems crazy right? most of it, yes, but he did receive 8 more Targets than that last year and came up 11 Receptions shy. The potential is there for a big season. Not 19 TDs big of course. The excitement was lessened shortly after the season due to an arrest for reckless driving but nothing would happen legally to affect his season.
His season started out with a carry-over of that excitement but not exactly what owners would have wanted because he only received one Target. Fortunately, he caught that Target for a 41 Yard TD. From that point on, Anderson wouldn’t see fewer than four Targets in any game and had multiple Receptions in every game as well. The yardage wasn’t always something to marvel at (Seven games under 40 Yards receiving) but he did have two games over 120 Yards receiving and two more with more than 75. if you pace out the production from Week 2-17 (13 Games) he had the same amount of Targets, three fewer receptions, 66 fewer Yards, and one fewer TD. Also, the third year WR averaged the most Yards per Reception (15.0).
Career Y/R, Y/T
- 2016 -14.0, 7.52
- 2017 – 14.9, 8.25
- 2018 – 15.0, 8.0
He will probably never catch over 65% of his Targets because he is at his best, a deep threat. If he and Darnold can develop more into a top WR and be used all over the field, Anderson could stay down inside that top-20 range at WR. Over the last two seasons, he is in the top-nine in the league in End Zone Target Share (’19 – 39.2%, eighth/ ’18 – 40.5%, ninth) with 26 total End Zone Targets. The potential is there at least. Will they pay him like he is that before he gets to that level is the next question.
Anderson’s 2018 Season
- W36, 106.4 Fan Points
- Caught 50/94 Targets (53.2%) 3.6 P/G
- 752 Yards (15.0 Y/R, 8.0 Y/T) 2 100 Yard games
- 6 TDs
The Rest Of The WR Corps
After a season in which he produced 38 Receptions on 68 Targets for 449 Yards and one TD, Quincy Enunwa way signed to a four-year extension. The next day they placed him on season-ending IR with an ankle injury. He was also bothered by the ankle earlier in the season as well. The numbers weren’t exactly impressive but Enunwa flashed pretty well in the first four games.
- Weeks 1-4 – Avg 8.75 Targets per Game, all four games over 55 Yards receiving, one TD.
- Weeks 5-17 (seven games) – Avg. 4.6 Targets per Game, one game over 55 Yards receiving, no TDs.
Who Gonna Stay?
WR Free Agents
- Robby Anderson
- Jermaine Kearse
- Andre Roberts
- Rishard Matthews
- Deontay Burnett
- Quincy Enunwa
- DeAngelo Yancey
- Charone Peake
- JJ Jones
- Tim White
They better figure something out quick!
Chris Herndon finished 2018 as the TE14 in Standard and 15 in PPR. Not to bad for a rookie TE. But if you look above you can see that from Week 6 through your Fantasy Championship in Week 16, he was much better then that.
- Standard – TE14 (73.4 Points)
- 1/2 Point – TE15 (92.4)
- Full Point – TE15 (111.4)
- Standard – TE6 (68.7 Points)
- 1/2 Point – TE6 (85.7)
- Full Point – TE7 (101.7)
- Caught 1/1.4 Targets, 9.4 Yards, 0 TD
- Caught 3.3/4.6 Targets, 44.7 Yards, 0.4 TDs
Herndon’s 2018 Season
- TE14, 74.2 Fan Points
- Caught 39/56 Targets (69.6%) 2.4 P/G
- 502 Yards (12.9 Y/R, 8.9 Y/T) 0 100 Yard Games
- 4 TDs
Another year with Sam Darnold will only help Herndon as they develop more of a relationship on the field together. The young QBs best friend can be a TE. They run routes closer to the line of scrimmage which is generally safer throws for the QB, They can be fed Targets by way of the dump off but as they both grow together, be used more downfield. He is already a Red Zone weapon and if he produces like in a similar fashion in 2019 (Weeks 6-16, 16 Game Pace – Catching 53/74 Targets, 715 Yards, 6 TDs) he will be an easy TE1. If he and Darnold can step their games up a notch in year two and not suffer the sophomore slump, he can be better. We are always looking for reliable TEs.
Unfortunately, reports came out with a video of a possible DUI for the young TE and we will have to see what happens. If suspended, look for the Jets to bring someone on in Free Agency. New York has three other TEs, all Free Agents in ’19 (Neal Sterling, Clive Walford, Eric Tomlinson).
2018 Fantasy Relevant Draftees
3rd Overall, QB Sam Darnold
- Completed 249/414 Attempts, 2,865 Yards, 17 TDs, 15 INTs, 44 RuATT, 138 Yards, 1 TD
107th Overall, TE Chris Herndon
- Caught 39/56 Targets, 502 Yards, 4 TDs
204h Overall, RB Trenton Cannon
- 55 Touches, 257 Yards, 1 TD
With the 3rd pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the New York Jets select…
New York has put together a solid young group of offensive talent that we saw take steps forward in ’18. I would expect them to either find some help protecting their young QB or draft to help that defense out. Reports from Feb 27th are that they might be trying to trade out of the pick.
2019 Cap Space $99,046,067
Heading into 2019 the biggest thing to look at will honestly be the Coach. Adam Gase got the job in Miami based on what he did with Peyton Manning in Denver. They did do some great things together producing the highest scoring offense ever. But many think that it was about 95% Manning and 5% Gase as far as the responsibility for the great year. They have offensive pieces in place. Young ones that showed potential in 2018. Can he get Darnold to the next level he fell short with Tannehill on?
Is Elijah Mcguire the RB of the future, does Gase make a play for Bell, or do they draft another in ’19? Robby Anderson looked to take a step forward towards becoming a true number one WR for the Jets but do they pay him as such? and what about the rest of the WRs? We know Enunwa will be there but who else? People would love to see Herndon work his way into the top-10 at the TE position but reports of a possible DUI did surface recently which is a big hit to his value as he will likely serve a suspension. They will likely sign someone to cover the time missed. The O-Line should stay largely intact with only James carpenter not under contract in 2019. I’d expect the Jets to finish a little better than 4-12 next year.