FFStastistics Rookie Mock Draft
FFS Staff Rookie Mock Draft
The powers that be at FFS came up with the superb idea to host a pre-combine staff rookie mock draft. We had some of the best minds in fantasy football vying for their favorite rookies. The results were interesting and had a little of everything. There were the expected selections, some reaches, and some surprises.
Participating in the mock draft were: Matt Williams (@MattWi77iams), Sam Lane (@FFStompy), Jared Wackerly (@JaredWackerlyFF), David Willsey (@wilson8tor), Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext), Tim (@TimNFL), Jesse Reeves (@JesseReevesFF), The Draft Genius (@thedraftgenius), Michael Zingone (@FFzinger), Peter Howard (@pahowdy), Zeno (@theDude_Z), and myself (@FFJeffSmith).
Be sure to give all these guys a follow while you are reading this over. Mash the follow button at @FFStatistics_while you are here as well. Below is a snapshot of the results by round followed by a summary of each owners reasoning behind their picks.
Here is how it all shook out. Browse over the picks by owner. The next section has the comments from the drafting owner themselves and why they took who they took when they took them.
These are the first-hand accounts from each of the owners as to why they made their selections when they did. These are well thought out arguments and I think everyone stated their case astutely. Feel free to reply in the comments section on how you thought this played out or hit us up on Twitter individually. Enjoy!
Pick 1.01 Matt selects N’Keal Harry-Arizona State (WR)
Imagine Jarvis Landry, but with the ability to physically dominate double teams. That is N’Keal Harry. Forget top-end speed, this is your WR1 (and it’s not even close). I will be happy to take a chance at 1.01 for an “x” receiver who can be a WR1 for years to come.
Pick 1.02 Sam selects A.J. Brown-Ole Miss (WR)
Brown’s production profile is one of the tops in the class. In each of the last two seasons, Brown has produced over 1,250 receiving yards and combined for 17 touchdowns, far out-producing divisive teammate and potential rookie draft 1.01 DK Metcalf. While he did not break out until age 20, Brown also did not start college until 19. Brown was primarily a slot receiver in college and a big slot at 6’1″ 230 pounds. With the shift in NFL offenses to using the slot receiver more in three wide receiver sets and 11-personnel, Brown has the potential to have been productive. With his production profile in college, I am much more confident in him than a lot of other wide receivers in the class.
Pick 1.03 Jared selects David Montgomery-Iowa St. (RB)
As of right now, he’s my RB1. I believe in taking the best RBs early if I can. I was happy to grab Montgomery here. He can do everything on the field at a high level. He can be a workhorse for whichever team takes him.
Pick 1.04 David selects Hakeem Butler-Iowa St. (WR)
Inside my top tier of the WRs in this class. A little older than one would like but an athletic freak that I think can make an impact from day 1 even if just a Red Zone threat while he develops. Lines up all over the field and his college dominator was in the 97th % for age 22 WRs since ’08. He wasn’t making it back to me.
Pick 1.05 Raju selects Rodney Anderson-Oklahoma (RB)
Rodney Anderson is a great value at 1.05. My top overall dynasty rookie, Anderson is the most complete back in the draft and has RB1 workhorse upside. Still an afterthought near the top of most drafts due to his multiple season-ending injuries, Anderson feels like a steal here. Once named starter Anderson galloped for over 1,000 yards in just eight games in 2017. If I am picking this high in the draft I can afford to go for upside over the floor and that is just what I have done with this pick. For more of my thoughts on Anderson click here.
Pick 1.06 Tim selects Joshua Jacobs-Alabama (RB)
Jacobs is my RB1 in this class. He has the perfect blend of attributes I look for in my RBs and should test well. While he did split time with Harris at Alabama, I think we should consider Alabama a pipeline school for talent rather than a situation which doesn’t play its best players.
Pick 1.07 Jesse selects Kelvin Harmon-NC State (WR)
Kelvin Harmon ranks as my WR2 in this class. He’s a big body possession receiver who runs fluid routes and has incredibly strong hands. Harmon is likely the most well-rounded receiver in this class and possesses the skill set to be a true number 1 WR in the NFL. He is also coming off two back to back productive seasons at NC State. Getting him here at the 1.07 may prove to be an absolute steal in the long term.
Pick 1.08 Draft Genius selects Marquis Brown-Oklahoma (WR)
This guy can flat out ball. Brown is explosive and consistently shows good release. He has the footwork to generate separation and can track the deep ball well and adjust to it. I question how his size will hurt him in the NFL, but he is worth a pick here, especially if he lands somewhere where he will be leaned on to contribute on day one. *I also build my team RB heavy, so I constantly draft WRs with high upside in rookie drafts.
Pick 1.09 Michael selects D.K. Metcalf-Ole Miss (WR)
Metcalf is the quintessential high-risk high-reward prospect. He’s going to test extremely well at the combine and more than likely be a 1st round NFL draft pick. Combine the size, athleticism, and draft capital and you have yourself an ideal 1.09 draft pick.
Pick 1.10 Peter takes Andy Isabella-UMass (WR)
Broke out at age 19 and hit a combined 47.8% of his teams receiving yards and touchdowns in his final year, with a 15.3 YPR and reports he has seed to burn from scouts he could be more of an outside deep threat player. But his level of production suggests he’s more likely to produce in the NFL than all but 4 others in this class pre-draft.
Pick 1.11 Zeno selects Darrell Henderson-Memphis (RB)
He’s top 20 in total CFB rushing yards among 2009-2018 CFB RBs and put up an impressive 8.9 YPC on 241 attempts in his final year at Memphis. He put up the big counting stats and he’s explosive on tape so taking him at 1.11 was an easy decision. You can read more about Henderson here. Expect to see his draft stock increase as the draft nears!!
Pick 1.12 Jeff selects Damien Harris-Alabama (RB)
I think NFL GM’s will fall in love with the small amount of tread on his tires. He has a chance to play right away if he is drafted into the right situation. I think the Jets, Raiders, Bills, Texans, or Buccaneers would all be great landing spots for him. Harris has only 477 carries in his college career (four years) to go along with 52 receptions. In comparison, Saquon Barkley had 671 carries and 102 catches in just three years at Penn State. He could be this year’s Phillip Lindsay in terms of rookie production given the opportunities. In his final two years in Alabama, he amassed 1876 yards on the ground (6.6YPC) and 20 TDs.
Pick 2.01 Matt selects Devin Singletary-FAU (RB)
They call him “the motor” for a reason. He keeps on moving, leading college football in missed forced tackles over the past two seasons. Singletary’s elite vision and balanced weaponry make him a dangerous running back that could end up being the steal of any rookie draft. The team he ends up on will play a fairly large role in his final value though.
Pick 2.02 Sam selects Benny Snell-Kentucky (RB)
Hey look, another pick based on college production. Snell is the most productive running back in the class. In all three seasons, Snell surpassed 1,000 yards on the ground with over five yards per carry. He also added 13 or more touchdowns in every season. While he was not overly-used in the passing game, Snell did combine for 27 receptions in his final two seasons at Kentucky. He is also good in pass protection, which should allow him to see the field more often. While he is not the most athletic back, lacking speed and burst, Snell is good in a lot of areas required to be a good running back in the NFL. He likely will not be a 3-down workhorse, but Snell could potentially a Jordan Howard type back in the NFL.
Pick 2.03 Jared selects Miles Sanders-Penn St. (RB)
An all-around back with not many holes in his game. He was the #1 RB in his class coming out of high school, so the talent is there. Will slip due to only have 1 season on tape after playing behind Saquon Barkley. I think if he gets in the right situation, he can be impactful at the next level. He flashes every now and then, but no game breaking ability-just an all-around back.
Pick 2.04 David selects Noah Fant-Iowa (TE)
I believe his athletic ability will allow his game to translate sooner rather than later. A legit field stretching TE. Want to try and lock down this position for the next 5+ years. Might have been a little early but Idk if he was coming back in the third.
Pick 2.05 Raju selects Justice Hill-Oklahoma St. (RB)
Justice Hill is an exciting back with an every down skill set. I strongly considered two wide receivers here but believe Hill can shine if he finds himself on the right depth chart. Though some may express size concerns, Hill has a solid base and exhibits good contact balance. As per PFF Hill forced 33 missed tackles and saw 39 of his 158 carries go for a first down or a touchdown. As an elusive, jump cut runner with good hands, Hill can find himself in the RB2 conversation when his name is called in April.
Pick 2.06 Tim selects Alexander Mattison-Boise St. (RB)
Another RB with versatility and likely solid measured athleticism. I have a type.
Pick 2.07 Jesse selects Trayveon Williams-Texas A & M (RB)
Williams is an incredibly talented back who possesses great vision as well as footwork and burst at the line of scrimmage. He also has great pass protection and was very successful in the receiving game at Texas A&M. He is also coming off a 1,700+ rush yard and 18 TD season, one of the best in A&M history. This kid shouldn’t slip to the second, but I’m happy he did.
Pick 2.08 Draft Genius selects Elijah Holyfield-Georgia (RB)
His father was a knockout in the boxing ring, now Holyfield is a knockout on the field. Holyfield has all the traits you need to be productive in the NFL. He has speed, elusiveness, balance, power and more. His vision may be the best in this class, and he can change directions with ease. If Holyfield lands with a team like the Saints or Raiders (where they already have a running back that can play passing downs) he will shoot up my draft board in a major way.
Pick 2.09 Michael selects J.J. Arcega-Whiteside-Stanford (WR)
Early breakout age, prototypical size, and playing in a solid conference, JJAW has a lot of the tools you look for in a WR prospect. I have him in the 1st round of my rookie rankings, so getting the Stanford product here is a great value.
Pick 2.10 Peter selects Greg Dortch-Wake Forest (WR)
I only have two years of college data for Dortch, but what I have is #good. He was over 23% combined Yards and touchdowns at age 19 and 33% at age 20. His profile reminds me of Michel Gallup last year and in the right draft spot he could rocket up draft boards by August.
Pick 2.11 Zeno selects KeeSean Johnson-Fresno St. (WR)
KeeSean broke out at age 19 with a 773rec yard season good for a 30% rec yardage market share. The Fresno State wideout commanded above 30% market share for 3 straight years (ages 19-21). Johnson’s collegiate production also stands out when compared to of Top 24 FF NFL WRs; he’s way above average in most metrics since his breakout. At 2.11, KeeSean was the last remaining top tier WR so I had to grab him.
Pick 2.12 Jeff selects Deebo Samuel-South Carolina (WR)
Deebo Samuel was a Senior Bowl darling. With comps to Anquan Boldin being tossed about, it’s hard not to like the 6′. 200 lb. senior from South Carolina. Samuel accounted for 11 TD’s in 12 games in his senior campaign. He did have hamstring issues in 2016 and a broken fibula in 2017, but that shouldn’t deter would be GM’s from taking him. Despite poor QB play, he managed 62-882-11 in his final year as a Gamecock. Let’s not forget he is named after Deebo from the movie Friday. Bonus points there for sure.
Pick 3.01 Matt selects Myles Gaskin-Washington (RB)
To be honest, Gaskin looks more like a depth back in the NFL than a standout for fantasy. His value may get a boost if drafted in a solid system with a good offensive line, but who’s wouldn’t? I like him as a gamble in the third round because he is a very efficient runner who makes smart decisions. Physical traits, or lack thereof, are his main downfall.
Pick 3.02 Sam selects T.J. Hockenson-Iowa (TE)
While everyone is talking about his teammate in Noah Fant, Hockenson might actually be the best tight end prospect in the class. Fant had productive seasons in both 2017 and 2018. However, Hockenson actually outproduced him in 2018 with over 700 yards and six touchdowns. Not as athletically gifted as Fant, Hockenson is still very athletic and a better blocker, which should allow him to be on the field more often. Hockenson is extremely versatile and still has great hands. Keep dreaming about Fant, Hockenson is the guy I want.
Pick 3.03 Jared selects Emanuel Hall-Missouri (WR)
Very fast for his size. He was hampered by injuries in his college career, but when he did play, he dominated-never played a full season. He has quick feet and his coaches praise his work ethic. He reminds me a bit of Mike Wallace.
Pick 3.04 David selects Bryce Love-Stanford (RB)
Don’t draft while sleep deprived. Come on KC.
Pick 3.05 Raju selects Parris Campbell-Ohio St. (WR)
One of the two receivers I mentioned considering with my second-round pick, I am excited Parris Campbell is still on the board for me in round three. A 6’1 burner with potential sub 4.4 speed (he ran a 4.41 as a college recruit), Campbell fits the modern NFL as a receiver with great yards after the catch skills. In a creative offense, Campbell can quickly become a household PPR name. Getting a gem like Campbell this late, accentuates just how deep this rookie wide receiver class is. Likely to measure as one of the most explosive receivers in the draft, Campbell’s draft stock is sure to skyrocket in dynasty in the coming weeks.
Pick 3.06 Tim selects Irv Smith Jr.-Alabama (TE)
This pick is a little out of the ordinary but stick with me. Irv Smith came out early, was a solid producer, solid recruit, and has excellent film (both receiving and blocking). I think overall Smith’s measured athleticism will be better than any of us are expecting AND may go in Day 2 of the 2019 NFL Draft.
Pick 3.07 Jesse selects Lil’ Jordan Humphrey-Texas (WR)
Humphrey here could be looked at as a stretch, but I went ahead and took him anyways. He projects as a big body slot receiver who has versatility and can be used in the run game as well as on special teams. Compared to other one-dimensional players, Humphrey could find himself getting plenty of work due to his ability to be impactful at any area on the field.
Pick 3.08 Draft Genius selects Drew Lock-Missouri (QB)
Haskins and Lock bounce between my QB1 spot frequently. Right here, Lock was my QB1, so I pulled the trigger. Lock has the size, mobility, and arm strength to succeed if shoved into a starting role early on. He holds his composure well and has an accurate arm most of the time. Lock dominated the SEC and was very consistent at Missouri. If he shows that his zip on the ball has improved at the combine, he may start becoming everyone’s top QB.
Pick 3.09 Michael selects Dwayne Haskins-Ohio St. (QB)
Haskins is my QB1 in the class. While not an elite prospect, he has a lot of good traits and production to match. Haskins will be a high 1st round pick, which historically have panned out well. Even in 1QB, Haskins is worth the pick here as a guy who will be on your roster for years to come, unlike some other players in this range
Pick 3.10 Peter selects Kyler Murray-Oklahoma (QB)
I’m tired of drafted WR’s, also I think this could make Jesse tilt. Kyler Murray has the highest AVG Passer rating in this class according to my tracking of it and I don’t like “he’s too short” narratives, so I’ll take that bet here, if he plays baseball instead…I guess I’ll start a baseball team.
Pick 3.11 Zeno selects Travis Homer-Miami (RB)
“I used my RB prospect model to help with this pick. The model likes that the Florida prospect has a young breakout, contributes in the passing game, and has above average rushing production. When adjusting for age, Homer’s back-to-back 1000+ total yardage seasons (75+ yards/game) are also increasing the likelihood of NFL success. I had to pull the trigger on Homer at 3.11 because the model liked him so much.
Pick 3.12 Jeff selects Jace Sternberger-Texas A & M (TE)
TE is a very thin position for fantasy purposes in the NFL right now. I don’t mind taking a chance on a one-year wonder here already having drafted an RB and a WR. Sternberger had 10 TD’s his junior year to go with 49 catches and 838 yards. He was tied for 4th in the nation with 17.1 YPC. Good route runner, great YAC and reliable hands.