Kelvin Harmon: Fantasy Scouting Report
With all the talent in this years WR prospect pool, it’s hard to find guys who truly stand out. However, there are always a few who do. In this case, we’re talking about Kelvin Harmon. Highly regarded as a top-three prospect at the position, Harmon has become a household name in 2019. With guys like N’Keal Harry and D.K. Metcalf in the same class, that’s a high honor to be considered among the best this year.
The assumption of Harmon’s projected success is rooted in recency bias. Based on what we’ve seen from him over the past few years in college, he looks like a sure-fire thing. Coming off an impressive stint at North Carolina State, Harmon not only put up solid numbers but he did it with authority. Now, fantasy enthusiasts have this kid on their radar and want a piece of him this year. However, The question remains, can he live up to the expectations? If so, what does that mean for fantasy owners?
Kelvin Harmon: A Wide Reciever or ‘THE’ Wide Reciever?
School: North Carolina State
Position: Wide Receiver
Weight: 213 lbs
D.O.B: 12/16/1997 (21 years old)
College Dominator: 29.6%
Kelvin Harmon came into NC State as a three-star recruit out of Palmyra High School in New Jersey. He wasn’t exactly a force in his freshman season but wasn’t lackluster either. He competed with the likes of Jaylen Samuels, Nyheim Heins, and Stephen Louis for opportunities and made a fair impact within that group. Despite the crowded offense, Harmon carved out a nice role as a TD threat on limited work. He ended 2016 with the second most TDs on his team with five. He flashed dynamic play on the field early, and that was just a preview for what was to come.
Harmon really hit his stride in 2017 during his sophomore season. Still competing with the same group of talent as the previous year, he absolutely dominated this time around. He ended his sophomore season with the Wolf Pack second in receptions and first in receiving yards. Worth noting is that Harmon did it with the emergence of Jakobi Meyers’ transition from QB to WR. Meyers was third in receptions, second in yards, and led NC State in TDs. Harmon snagged Second Team All-ACC honors for his breakout sophomore season in 2017 as well.
2018 was Harmons best season with the Wolf Pack. He led the team in receiving yards and TDs and was the teams best weapon from a production standpoint. Not only was he astounding in the realm of NC State, but he made a huge impact inside the entire ACC. Harmon finished top 8 in the conference in every major category for a WR. Harmon, yet again, obtained All-ACC honors but this time was First Team. He ended his college career with prolific numbers as well as a huge impact on not only his team but in all of the ACC.
Kelvin Harmon dominated BC. If this ball gets there earlier it would’ve made his stat sheet even more ridiculous that day pic.twitter.com/BmvDiDP2bg
— Connor Rogers (@ConnorJRogers) November 27, 2018
Harmon is by no means a “polished” route runner but he is without a doubt fluid in this area. He has good short burst when stemming his routes. This allows him to create good separation off the line of scrimmage or in open space. His size and speed don’t cater to fast twitch jerk stem that typically fools defenders but his physicality and fluid feet make for good route running. Especially for a guy his size. He has very good decisiveness in his routes and is typically never derailed in press coverage. His release off the LOS is never faltered against press coverage either. Thanks to his stature and physicality. He has a tough time separating against zone coverage but again, makes up for it with fluid stems and physicality. Harmon also runs every route at full speed regardless of if the ball is coming to him or not.
Easily the most eye-popping attribute of Harmon’s on tape. His hands are among the best in this class. He routinely snags the ball out of the air and rarely lets it hit his body. He also does well in contested situations to hold tight and not let the ball jumble around or rely on his body for security. Harmon’s hands pair well with great ball skills. He tracks the ball very well and has shown the ability to adjust to the trajectory of the ball and he makes it look easy. Where he most succeeds inside this area is at the contested catch point. His ball skills, strong hands, and physicality at the catch point all pair to make him an absolute animal in contested situations. He has incredible body control and uses his big frame and aggression to win against defenders.
An area that Harmon really excelled to me was in the run game. He constantly leveraged his big frame and long arms to help create running lanes to the outside. He made conscious efforts to stay engaged with defenders even as the play shifted away from him. Easy to square up defenders and use his hips to stop them in their pursuit. He actively seeks out contact and knows his assignments in run schemes, not allowing himself to be brought out of the play or beaten. One underrated part of his run blocking game is the use of his strong hands. Harmon is quick to put the clamps on defenders and hold them off with ease.
Harmon is a receiver without much raw athleticism. But what he lacks in that area, he fully makes up for in versatility and smarts. For starters, although he operated as predominantly an X receiver, he was moved around a ton and even played some in the slot for the Wolf Pack. He succeeded the most along the boundaries of the field with his physicality but was able to win with fluid route running in the middle of the field as well. He can make it happen anywhere. Not only has he moved around for receiving purposes, but he far exceeded expectations as a run blocker. Harmon is easily one of if not the most well rounded WR in this class in that he can do it all on offense.
Everything that Kelvin Harmon has shown us on tape aligns with what we see on the stat sheet. He compiled 2,665 receiving yards on 177 receptions and had 16 touchdowns in his three years at NC State. In 2017 he finished 6th in receptions and 2nd in receiving yards in the ACC. He then followed up a breakout season ending 2018 ranked 4th,1st, and 8th in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs in the ACC. Harmon had a 118.4 passer rating when targeted by Ryan Finley and had a whopping 17 contested catches in 2018. Also, In his three-year span at NC State, Harmon never had below a 60% catch percentage.
What’s even more impressive than his advanced and raw college data is Harmon’s MS data over the past two years. He had his breakout year at age 19 when he commanded 26% of NC States receiving and TD offense. The above chart shows his receiving yards MS by age in comparison to wide receivers with at least one top 36 fantasy season in the NFL. Basically, Harmon is good. The chart also shows that he exceeded that threshold yet again at age 20 which tells us his age 19 breakout was far from a fluke. He truly dominated at NC State.
Depending on where Harmon lands in terms of draft round and pick, we can use this MS data to project just how successful he will be at the next level. WRs with this level of dominance in college at that early of age have a much higher % of succeeding in the NFL. This data bodes extremely well for his future. Especially if he’s drafted in the 1st round as many think he could be.
Kelvin Harmon hits every mark as a true threat at the WR position. Any questions you have about him as a player on the field can be easily answered by watching his tape over the last two seasons. The kid is an absolute baller. He has elite contested catch ability with high football IQ and the physicality to be an elite receiver at the next level. As stated a few times above, he lacks pure athleticism but makes up for it in savvy route running, versatility, and incredible ball skills.
Harmon projects as a big body X receiver who can tether to the line of scrimmage and beat press coverage with ease. He also displays the versatility to beat zone coverage with fluid routes and decisiveness. His run blocking ability will allow him to be more involved inside the offense and be a true threat in all areas of the offense. Harmon will immediately walk into almost any situation as the number one receiver and I say that with extreme confidence. I truly believe he is one of three players in this class that can be unaffected by the draft.
Kelvin Harmon is a top three pick in one QB formats and a top seven pick in Superflex. As stated above, I think Harmon is one of only a few players who have the potential to immediately come in and be the best at his position. I currently have him ranked as my WR2 as well as my number two prospect overall in rookie rankings. With what I see on tape paired with his raw and MS data, I’m confident that Harmon is a top prospect worth the investment in rookie drafts this year. With that said, other names like Metcalf, Harry, Jacobs, and Montgomery are creeping their way up draft boards as we speak. So, Don’t be surprised if you are able to snag Harmon in the 1.06-1.07 range. If he makes it to you there, you’d better submit that pick faster than you can blink.