Trade and Free Agent Frenzy: Fantasy Impact 2019
It is officially the start of the 2019 NFL season. Players can sign with teams and team meetings will start to take place. As we gear towards the NFL draft, we just saw one of the most insane free agencies in recent memory. This included not one – but two- elite wide receivers being traded.
There are plenty of players that will be wearing new uniforms next season, and often enough, those players will have value come Fantasy draft day. Even Antonio Brown will surely take a dip from his usual first-round ADP.
Let’s take a look at players who have switched teams. Their current Average Draft Position and what I project it will be in August.
Note: All ADP’s are based on .5 PPR scoring per Fantasyfootballcalculator.com.
Trade and Free Agent Frenzy: Fantasy Impact 2019
Odell Beckham Jr. – Cleveland Browns
Current ADP: 2.02
Projected ADP: 1.09
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 13, 2019
Beckham will pair with Jarvis Landry to form one of the best wide receiver tandems in the NFL. The beauty of it for Beckham’s Fantasy value is that Landry is best used in the slot and will draw coverage away from the former Giant.
After coming off a 101-catch/1,367 yard/10 touchdown season in 2016, Beckham only played four games in 2017 before breaking his ankle. His underwhelming 2018 campaign in which he only played 12 games and barely eclipsed 1,000 yards will still keep doubters at bay.
Regardless of any concerns before this trade, Beckham is firmly locked in as the WR5 off the board and might surpass Julio Jones and Michael Thomas whom both have first-round ADPs.
Beckham is a great pick if he slips in drafts, but with guys like Antonio Brown, Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, and Juju Smith-Schuster all going in the mid-second round, it is hard to justify spending a first round pick on OBJ.
With Freddie Kitchens at Head Coach, Baker Mayfield threw for at least two touchdowns in six of eight games. Beckham is going to have a great season with Mayfield, but the value won’t be there in redraft leagues.
Antonio Brown – Oakland Raiders
Current ADP: 2.11
Projected ADP: 2.06
Coming off a season where he led the NFL with a career-high 15 touchdowns, Brown enters interesting territory in 2019. He finished as the WR3 in standard scoring last season. It is the fifth straight year for AB with such a finish.
Yet, he is now an Oakland Raider and has been seen in the media flaunting a gold mustache while congratulating married couples on their anniversary. Nobody really knows what to do with Antonio Brown in Fantasy or reality.
He is currently going off the board as the WR10. That will change. What should not change is your perception of his value when his ADP will be the WR6 or WR7.
I know what you’re thinking: Derek Carr.
Believe me, I get it. But Carr posted career-highs in completion percentage (68.9) and passing yards (4,049) in 2018. He did this with Marcell Ateman and an aged Jordy Nelson for most of the season.
In 2016 Carr provided Michael Crabtree with 146 targets (WR12) and Amari Cooper with 131 targets (WR14). In those top-3 finish seasons, the least amount of targets Brown saw from Ben Roethlisberger was 154.
The Raiders have brought AB in to be their shining star on offense. He is still an elite talent in the NFL and even if he only receives 140 targets in 2019, he has Top 5 wide receiver upside.
Tyrell Williams – Oakland Raiders
Current ADP: Not Drafted
Projected ADP: 14.08
Williams has put together a nice career thus far in a sidekick role to Keenan Allen. In fact, in 2016 when Allen went down with injury, Williams put together a 1,000-yard season.
Williams is a career 16.3 YPR guy who will thrive opposite of Antonio Brown. The Raiders have not signed a running back yet and their backfield situation is murky. All signs point to this team wanting to become a vertical offense again.
Look for the Raiders, who also added speedster J.J. Nelson, to try to feed off of Carr’s first season of 4,000-plus yards. They will definitely take shots to Williams, who should see a lot of single coverage with Mr. Big Chest on the other side of the field.
Donte Moncrief – Pittsburgh Steelers
Current ADP: Undrafted
Projected ADP: 13.05
I heard on Twitter from an anonymous source that Moncrief will have more touchdowns than Antonio Brown in 2019. You can throw that out the window.
A) Touchdowns are impossible to predict.
B) It’s Antonio Freaking Brown.
However, there is a reason for such a thought. After all, Moncrief seven touchdowns in 2016 with Andrew Luck. Now with Big Ben, who threw 34 touchdowns in 2018, Moncrief is in a position to get a lot of opportunity as an outside receiver in the Steeler’s offense.
Moncrief had great success last season on go routes, but where he really thrives is in the red zone. All six of those 2016 touchdowns were within the 10-yard line.
Smith-Schuster is the undisputed WR1 but will be playing in the slot where he is elite. Moncrief and second-year wideout James Washington will man the outside. Moncrief will have WR3 upside in this situation in 2019.
Le’Veon Bell – New York Jets
Current ADP: 1.10
Projected ADP: 2.01
Isaiah Crowell averaged 4.8 yards-per-carry behind the Jets offensive line on 143 carries in 2018. That is good news for Bell who has carried the ball at least 261 times three times in his five-year career.
in 2017 Bell had 321 carries and 85 receptions. He is the definition of a three-down back. The Jets know that and were okay cutting Crowell who was their primary ball-carrier once they inked Bell to a four year/$52.5M contract.
The only concerns that should be had from a Fantasy perspective are Bells health (after sitting out an entire season) AND limited touchdown opportunities. in 2017 six of Bell’s nine rushing touchdowns came within five yards of the end zone. The Jets were 23rd in the NFL last year with 20.8 PPG.
There is no question that Bell will get the volume as long as he is on the field. He should still be considered the best catch-passing back in the league, including Saquon Barkley. If Bell slips into the second round he should be snatched up immediately.
Mark Ingram- Baltimore Ravens
Current ADP: 5.06
Projected ADP: 4.07
The Ravens led the NFL in rushing attempts last season with 547. This was in part to Lamar Jackson who had 147 attempts of his own. Gus Edwards had a great season and provided 137 carries for 718 yards (5.2 YPC).
What I love about Ingram coming over to the Ravens is the volume he will now be able to encompass on the run-first Ravens while providing pass-catching out of the backfield. They have used Buck Allen primarily in this role over the past two seasons (46 and 35 receptions) but Ingram will be able to fill in this role.
Ingram’s ability to catch the ball on the run is underrated as he is known around the Fantasy community as a thumper. He gave the Saints three straight years of at least 46 catches. In two of those seasons, he exceeded 50 receptions and 400 receiving yards.
Ingram will share the load with Kenneth Dixon, Edwards, Jackson, and company. Yet, I see him being right on the cusp of the Top 12 running backs in 2019. The Ravens will continue to run the ball and Ingram will fit right in as the primary running back. 15 carries a game with three to five targets is what I project for Ingram next year and he is currently going off draft boards as the RB24.
Tevin Coleman – San Francisco 49ers
Current ADP: 6.05
Projected ADP: 7.06
The majority of the Fantasy community wanted Coleman to land in a spot where he would be the workhorse back. The 49ers currently roster Jerick McKinnon and Matt Breida – both should get work in 2019.
We have seen Coleman produce in a complementary role in the past and he has produced as an RB2 for three straight seasons. Now back with Kyle Shanahan, I think this is the best scenario for Coleman.
It will be in the receiving game where he excels. In 2016 with the Shanahan Falcons, Coleman had over 32 receiving yards per game for 13.6 yards per reception. Shanahan will use Coleman well regardless of the other backs. McKinnon still has yet to prove sustained Fantasy production in the NFL and is coming off a torn ACL.
Latavius Murray – New Orleans Saints
Current ADP: 13.02
Projected ADP: 12.02
The Saints cumulative running back core has finished at least second in Fantasy points in every year since 2011.
That’s right. Murray is Fantasy relevant again. It would be unwise to give Alvin Kamara all of the running back touches and Murray will fill the Mark Ingram role nicely.
In a full season with Kamara, Ingram was the RB6 in 2017 with the Saints. Murray finished as an RB2 in 2016 (RB13) and 2017 (RB21). He is currently going off draft boards as the RB55.
Ingram averaged 13.5 touches per game last year if Murray gets around that volume he is going to be an RB2 again in Fantasy Football.
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