Draft Reactions – Day 3
With the final day of the NFL draft over, it is time to breakdown the final four rounds and see if there are some studs that slipped, some under the radar sleepers or if all these guys belong where they were drafted. We are going to look at the fantasy implications for these guys and see if we can expect something out of them in 2019 and/or moving forward. So, without further ado, here is the…
NFL Draft Day 3 Reactions
Hakeem Butler Wide Receiver, Arizona Cardinals
Well, it took a lot longer than most of us expected but Hakeem Butler (Iowa State) finally went off the board as the first pick in the fourth round to the Arizona Cardinals. One of the largest men to grace the wide receiver position, Butler can play inside and out, does a great job tracking the ball in the air which will match nicely with their new quarterback’s arm. As you can see below in Josh Rosen’s passing heatmap compared to the league average, Arizona almost never threw the ball deep.
After Christian Kirk was lost to a season-ending injury, they did not have anyone that scared teams. Butler and Kyler Murray could put some fear into them but he does need some improvement when catching the ball while coming back to the line of scrimmage.
Arizona also added a lot of other passing game options outside of Butler and Andy Isabella. They added a KeeSean Johnson (Fresno State), Caleb Wilson (UCLA), and AJ Richardson (Boise State) as a UDFA.
Johnson is a good route runner with reliable hands to catch passes in the intermediate areas. Johnson can play inside and out and will add yet another piece to the Air-Raid attack. Wilson might not be so irrelevant as his new nickname would suggest. He essentially doubled his production each year in college and finished on a 60 reception, 965 yards, and 4 touchdowns. He might not be the best blocker but he also might not be asked to do it much. Richardson had a great senior season when you take into account the lack of volume and the run-heavy attack that Boise state used. He totaled 99 receptions, 1,474 yards and 11 touchdowns in college but had a 54 reception, 825 yards, and 8 touchdowns final campaign.
Ryan Finley Quarterback, Cincinnati Bengals
Bryce Love Running Back, Washington Redskins
Bryce Love (Stanford) – “An ACL tear in his last collegiate game puts a serious damper on Love’s ability to produce any significant fantasy value in 2019. Multiple ankle injuries in his past are also a concern.” – Ethan Turner
Justice Hill Running Back, Baltimore Ravens
Justice Hill could become that pass-catching running back that Baltimore has been trying to get with Kenneth Dixon. The smallish back (5-10, 190 lbs) has speed and quickness and can catch the ball. He totaled 49 receptions in college which is not a huge number but it is enough to let us know the former Oklahoma State running back can do it. The issue might be that as you can see below, Lamar Jackson only threw the ball to running backs 25 times in his 16 games (seven starts) and never completed more than 14 passes all season.
Gary Jennings Jr Wide Receiver, Seattle Seahawks
Seattle might just be ready to let Russell Wilson chuck the ball. They drafted DK Metcalf on Day 2 and came back with Gary Jennings JR (West Virginia) in the fourth. Jennings had a great final two season and he did it in two different ways.
- Junior season – 97 receptions, 1,096 yards, 1 touchdown, 11.3 yards per reception
- Senior Season – 54 receptions, 917 yards, 13 touchdowns, 17.0 yards per reception
They also added Jazz Ferguson (Northwestern State). Ferguson is essentially a slower DK Metcalf. But, 4.45 speed is not slow. Ferguson failed a drug test and transferred from LSU to Northwestern stats. His final season totaled 66 receptions, 1,117 yards, and 13 touchdowns (16.9 yards per reception). He stands 6-5, 227 lbs. Seattle could have some young, dangerous deep threats to go with the beautiful deep ball Wilson throws. As you can see below, only one wide receiver had a less than 94.3 QB rating when targeted by Wilson. He throws a very catchable pass.
Seattle also added a pass-catching back in Travis Homer (Miami). Seattle has been waiting for the electric, yet always injured CJ Prosise to show them some sort of consistency and his time may be up. Homer caught 37 passes for 405 yards (10.9 yards per reception) and 1 touchdown. Also, Marcelias Sutton (Oklahoma). A running back with return ability that sat behind some other pro-caliber talent. Seattle also just paid Wilson so they picked up a UDFA quarterback from South Dakota State, Taryn Christian.
Trevon Wesco Tight End, New York Jets
Benny Snell Running Back, Pittsburgh Steelers
Benny Snell (Kentucky) was an extremely productive running back in college but a very poor combine has the haters saying I told you so. The Steelers running back position is one of the best spots in fantasy because it is largely a one-man show. Below is a chart showing you how many rushing attempts the RB1 in Pittsburgh gets during the Mike Tomlin era. You might say, but Snell does not catch the ball. Ask yourself this though. He can not catch or he did not catch the ball. Snell totaled 17 receptions in his senior season which is not a lot but the offense did not allow for much more. Between three running backs, there were 26 receptions to be had. Snell caught 17 of them (64.4%).
Riley Ridley Wide Receiver, Chicago Bears
Well, Riley Ridley (Georgia) was about as polarizing a prospect as we have seen all year. The fact he played in a run-heavy attack on a team with other quality NFL prospects can somewhat explain the lack of production at Georgia but the truthers kind of lost all their footing when Ridley had a terrible combine and a 9 on the Wonderlic Test. He will be going to a very innovative offense that has other weapons around him so there will not be the kind pressure on him that we saw at Georgia. Mitch Trubisky should only throw more as the years go so more targets to be had in a Matt Nagy offense could be something to watch.
As you can see above, Trubisky still needs to show improvement with his downfield passing as the only receivers with a higher QB rating than 91.7 when targeted by Trubisky are all short yardage/ slot receivers, running backs, and tight ends.
Tony Pollard Running back, Dallas Cowboys
Any running back in Dallas is interesting and the two that the Cowboys grabbed from Memphis and Ohio State (Mike Weber) are no different. Pollard was overshadowed by Darrell Henderson and Weber surprised at the combine and ran the same 40-yard dash as Ezekiel Elliott. Weber was also not asked to do nearly as much as Zeke because he was in an offense with Dwayne Haskins, the third quarterback taken in 2019.
Jarrett Stidham Quarterback, New England Patriots
Did the Patriots just draft the next in line behind Tom Brady? Maybe, but it is still going to be a few years likely before we know for sure. Jarrett Stidham (Auburn) regressed considerably from his 2017 season. In his first year at Baylor, he had a 68.8% completion rate and averaged over 11 yards per attempt. The Stidham transferred to Auburn and in 2017 had a 66.5% completion rate and averaged a respectable 8.5 yards per attempt. Those numbers took another hit in 2018 with a 60.7% completion rate and 7.6 yards per attempt.
Brady still has a few years left in him and Stidham needs to improve. Maybe this works or maybe he is just another Ryan Mallet. Even though the Patriots had a run-heavy attack near the end of the season, they lost a lot of weapons throughout the year and still threw the ball a ton.
Foster Moreau Tight End, Oakland Raiders
As you can see below, Derek Carr, threw the ball to the tight end position in 2018 more then he had ever done. Also, below you can see that three of the top four targets in terms of Carr’s passer rating when targeting the player, are tight ends. One of them being the recently departed Jared Cook to the New Orleans Saints. Cook had a monster season for the Raiders but it could have just been because there was nobody else. They drafted Foster Moreau (LSU) and he will likely just be a primary blocking tight end as that was his main job for the Tigers but he will catch a pass or two here and there.
Ryquell Armstead Running Back, Jacksonville Jaguars
With the uncertainty surrounding Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette, the Jaguars pick of Ryquell Armstead (Temple) is an interesting one. Fournette’s health and character/ work ethic concerns have shown to be real and he might not be as talented as his first round draft capital would suggest. Fournette is a bruiser and standing 5-11, 215 lbs and lacking much work in the passing game, Armstead could provide a similar asset if Fournette can’t get his act together. Below is the heatmap for Founette’s production in 2018.
As we all know, yards per carry is largely dictated by the offensive line. Clearly, they need to improve in that area or nobody will be able to do much. The addition of Nick Foles will provide more of a threat in the passing game which should open things up for the running game a bit. Armstead only totaled 29 receptions in college but his 8 receptions in 2018 were tied for second among running backs behind only the 9 from Jager Gardner. Also, the team only totaled 25 receptions between the three running backs as a whole so it was not a big part of the attack.
Zack Gentry Tight End, Pittsburgh Steelers
A former quarterback, Zack Gentry (Michigan) is likely going to serve as the blocking tight end for the Steelers as he is the largest tight end in the class. This is a great thing for Vance McDonald’s fantasy outlook as you can see below, the four top targets in terms of passer rating are tight ends if you include Jaylen Samuels who is essentially a running back/ tight end.
Hunter Renfrow Wide Receiver, Oakland Raiders
Qadree Ollison Running Back, Atlanta Falcons
Will have to fight with Ito Smith for back-up touches in 2019 and likely beyond. Devonta Freeman will likely dominate touches and could possibly produce an RB1 season if healthy. However, monitor the situation as Freeman has injury concerns. Ollison is out of Pitt.
Atlanta's additions on the o line helping your case for freeman as a buy @FFStompy
— David Willsey FF_TYM (@willson8tor) April 28, 2019
Jordan Scarlet Running Back, Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers just added a solid running back out of Florida in Jordan Scarlet. They were in serious need of a back to spell Christian McCaffrey who was worked as much as anyone in the league last season. They will surely try to get him some rest this season or McCaffrey’s career might not be too long. He is already a bit undersized. Scarlet has a lot of tread on the tires left. His largest total in three seasons with the Gators was 183 touches but his talent and potential would have earned him some more run had another quality piece in Lamical Perine. The two split touches.
You can see above that in the past two seasons, Cam Newton has thrown the ball to running backs more than ever and it could be because of the addition of McCaffrey alone or maybe the regression of the health and production of Greg Olsen. The Newton Injury did not affect the 2017 season. Scarlet could become a great piece and should be owned by all CMC owners.
Easton Stick Quarterback, Los Angeles Chargers
Darius Slayton Wide Receiver, New York Giants
KeeSean Johnson Wide receiver, Arizona Cardinals
(See Pick 4.1: Hakeem Butler)
Kaden Smith Tight End, San Francisco 49ers
Gardner Minshew Quarterback, Jacksonville Jaguars
Treyveon Williams Running Back, Cincinnati Bengals
(See Pick 6.38 – Rodney Anderson)
Travis Fulgham Wide Receiver, Detroit Lions
Ty Johnson Running Back, Detroit Lions
Juwan Winfree Wide Receiver, Denver Broncos
Dexter Williams Running Back, Green Bay Packers
Trace Mcsorley Quarterback, Denver Broncos
Marcus Green Wide Receiver, Atlanta Falcons
Travis Homer Running Back, Seattle Seahawks
(See Pick 4.18 – Gary Jennings JR)
Kelvin Harmon Wide Receiver, Washington Redskins
Kelvin Harmon (NC State) took a huge fall after his combine. Prior to that, he was expected to be one of the top receiving options on draft boards. The Washington Redskins got one of the best sets of hands in the class though and when you watch the man play on the field, he does not look unathletic at all. Maybe he is just better in pads. Dwayne Haskins will have more weapons than we thought he might and a Jay Gruden ran offense normally will throw a lot more than the injury-riddled 2018 allowed them to as you can see below. Harmon could be a steal here.
Scott Miller Wide Receiver, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rodney Anderson Running Back, Cincinnati Bengals
Rodney Anderson – “While I don’t personally have major concerns regarding Anderson’s injury history, NFL teams clearly do. His ACL tear is the most concerning blemish on his record, well that and his 6th round draft capital. ” – Ethan Turner
It appears that the injury concern was just too much for teams to risk when looking at Rodney Anderson. All the talent in the world, Some people had him as one of the top options at running back in the class. Based on the talent they were probably right but availability is the best ability as they say and Rodney was not available all that often. A multitude of injuries ruined multiple seasons for Oklahoma back.
He has landed in a great spot for his skill set but the situation is not optimal with Joe Mixon dominating touches, Gio Bernard still roaming around and fellow talented rookie Trayveon Williams out of Texas A&M. Both of these backs are more than capable backups for Mixon and if he were to get hurt, this could be gold for your team. Watch training camp closely to see who could surprise. Both of these players were near the top of the class in talent.
Darwin Thompson Running back, Kansas City Chiefs
Keep an eye on the Kansas City Chiefs backfield throughout training camp. They added two legit pass-catching options in Darwin Thompson (Utah State) and James Williams (Washington State). Thompson caught 23 passes during his one season with Utah State. He only totaled 176 touches so not a bad ratio (13.1% of his touches) and Williams set the record for receptions by a college running back with 202 receptions over three seasons. The Chiefs also added Carlos Hyde so the Damien Williams hype train might be slowing down just a bit. We know Andy Reid can get seemingly anyone into winning situations.
Mike Weber Running Back, Dallas Cowboys
(See Pick 4.26 – Tony Pollard)
Cullen Gillespia Running Back, Houston Texans
Kerrith Whyte JR Running Back, Chicago Bears
Tommy Sweeny Tight End, Detroit Lions
Alize Mack Tight End, New Orleans Saints
Alize Mack (Notre Dame) showed some great athleticism at the combine and is a big target. He definitely needs to improve in some facets of his game such as gaining separation but a potential Drew Brees weapon is always interesting. Jared Cook has been anything but consistent during his career.
Chandler Cox Running Back, Miami Dolphins
Myles Gaskin Running Back, Miami Dolphins
Myles Gaskin was an extremely productive running back for Washington through his four seasons there. The problem is he is not the most athletic and there is very little tread on the tires left which likely are the reason he fell. He should not affect the running back room in Miami, at least not year one.
John Ursua Wide Receiver, Jacksonville Jaguars
Terry Godwin Wide Receiver, Carolina Panthers
Dillon Mitchell Wide Receiver, Minnesota Vikings
Olabisi Johnson Wide receiver, Minnesota Vikings
Mr. Irrelevant – Caleb Wilson Tight End, Arizona Cardinals
(See Pick 4.1: Hakeem Butler)
Undrafted Free Agents
|Tyree Jackson – Buffalo Bills|
|Jake Browning – Minnesota Vikings|
|Brett Rypien – Denver Broncos|
|Kyle Shurmur – Kansas City Chiefs|
|Drew Belcher – Arizona Cardinals|
|David Blough – Cleveland Browns|
|Manny Wilkins – Green Bay Packers|
|Wilton Speight – San Francisco 49ers|
|Taryn Christian – Seattle Seahawks|
(See Pick 4.18 – Gary Jennings JR)
|Nick Fitzgerald – Tampa Bay Bucs|
|David Pindell – Tampa Bay Bucs|
|T.J. Linta – Kansas City Chiefs|
|Elijah Holyfield – Carolina Panthers|
|Damarea Crockett – Houston Texans|
|Bruce Anderson – Tampa Bay|
|Alec Ingold – Oakland Raiders|
|Karan Higdon – Houston Texans|
|Devine Ozigbo – New Orleans Saints|
|James Williams – Kansas City Chiefs|
(See Pick 6.41 – Darwin Thompson)
|Darrin Hall – Cleveland Browns|
|Jeremy Cox – Los Angeles Chargers|
|Travon McMillian – Pittsburgh Steelers|
|Steven Sims Jr – Washington|
|Xavier Turner – Arizona Cardinals|
|Jon Hilliman – New York Giants|
|Alex Barnes – Tennessee Titans|
|George Aston (FB) – Denver Broncos|
|Darrell Holland – New Orleans Saints|
|Dominick Bragalone – New York Giants|
|Trayone Gray – Cleveland Browns|
|Matt Colburn – Los Angeles Rams|
|Marcelias Sutton – Seattle Seahawks|
(See Pick 4.18 – Gary Jennings JR)
|Jordan Ellis – Cincinnati Bengals|
|L.J. Scott – Baltimore Ravens|
|Jalin Moore – New York Jets|
|Emmanuel Hall – Chicago Bears|
|Jakobi Meyers – New England Patriots|
|Xavier Ubosi – New England Patriots|
|Deonte Harris – New Orleans Saints|
|Greg Dortch – New York Jets|
|Stanley Morgan Jr – Cincinnati Bengals|
|Preston Williams – Miami Dolphins|
|AJ Richardson – Arizona Cardinals|
(See Pick 4.1: Hakeem Butler)
|Olamide Zaccheaus – Atlanta Falcons|
|Juston Christian – Baltimore Ravens|
|Nick Easley – Buffalo Bills|
|Joe Walker – Chicago Bears|
|Spencer Schnell – Chicago Bears|
|Thomas Ives – Chicago Bears|
|Dorian Baker – Cleveland Browns|
|Chris Osei-Kusi – Cleveland Browns|
|Jaylen Guyton – Dallas Cowboys|
|Jon’vea Johnson – Dallas Cowboys|
|Trinity Benson – Denver Broncos|
|Jonathan Duhart – Detroit Lions|
|Tyron Johnson – Houston Texans|
|Johnnie Dixon – Houston Texans|
|Penny Hart – Indianapolis Colts|
|Cody Johnson – Kansas City Chiefs|
|Andre Lindsay – Kansas City Chiefs|
|Trenton Irwin – Miami Dolphins|
|Reggie White Jr – New York Giants|
|Jazz Ferguson – Seattle Seahawks|
(See Pick 4.18 – Gary Jennings JR)
|David Sills – Buffalo Bills|
|Lil’ Jordan Humphrey – New Orleans Saints|
|Alex Wesley – New York Giants|
|Malik Taylor – Tampa Bay Bucs|
|Anthony Ratliff-Williams – Tennessee Titans|
|Kelvin McKnight – Denver Broncos|
|Andre Wilson – Detroit Lions|
|Tyre Brady – Jacksonville Jaguars|
|Felton Davis – Kansas City Chiefs|
|Trevion Thompson – Los Angeles Rams|
|Landon Jones – Minnesota Vikings|
|Ryan Davis – New England Patriots|
|DeAndre Thompkins – Philadelphia Eagles|
|Keelan Doss – Oakland Raiders|
|Dredrick Snelson – Jacksonville Jaguars|
|Cody Thompson – Kansas City Chiefs|
|Jamal Curtis – Kansas City Chiefs|
|Anthony Johnson – Tampa Bay Bucs|
|Ashton Dulin – Indianapolis Colts|
|Khalil Lewis – Atlanta Falcons|
|Jaylen Smith – Baltimore Ravens|
|DeMarkus Lodge – Tampa Bay Bucs|
|Antoine Wesley – Baltimore Ravens|
|Shawn Poindexter – San Francisco 49ers|
|Austin Fort – Denver Broncos|
|Brandon Dillion – Minnesota Vikings|
|Tyree Mayfield – San Francisco 49ers|
|Isaiah Searight – Tampa Bay Bucs|
|Kano Dillion – Washington|
|Stephen Carlson – Cleveland Browns|
|Charles Scarff – Baltimore Ravens|
|Keenan Brown – Los Angeles Rams|
|Andrew Beck – New England Patriots|
|Cole Hardman – Baltimore Ravens|
|Dax Raymond – Chicago Bears|
|Logan Parker – Kansas City Chiefs|
|C.J. Conrad – New York Giants|
|Donald Parham – Detroit Lions|
|Nate Becker – Detroit Lions|
|Cannon Smith – Oakland Raiders|
|Hale Hentges – Indianapolis Colts|
Now it is time to adjust your ranking, check out others rankings and see where these guys end up for you. Like I said at the top, there could be some great values here later in your drafts and some possible studs that fell for various reasons. Hope you enjoy the season. Let’s Go!!!