NFL Draft Fantasy Fallout: Day 3
The final day of the draft and @SMich_5 and @willson8tor are back with one more chat wrap up. Here is where things get deep and the sleepers can be found. Not everyone will be able to find longtime starters, but there’s plenty of roster depth and talent to be found. Knowing where to look and finding a good fit is just as important at this stage as talent. This is how we reacted to what we saw yesterday.
NLF Draft Fantasy Fallout: Day 3
Arizona building a future
Scott: Gotta start with the first pick of Day 3: Hakeem Butler going to Arizona. They have fully committed to the Kingsbury way and they are going to give Murray every chance to succeed. Weapons are being stockpiled in the desert.
David: Yes, sir. I’m loving the pass-catching weapons Arizona added as a whole. They are definitely giving Murray weapons with the additions of Butler, Isabella, Keesean Johnson, AJ Richardson, and Mr. Irrelevant Caleb Wilson. Take note, Seattle. Arizona does need O line help but Murray’s escapability can cover some flaws.
Day 3 Running Backs
David: We saw a good amount of running backs go on day 3. Of the RBs to go in Round 4 (Bryce Love WAS, Justice Hill BAL, Benny Snell PIT, and Tony Pollard DAL) who is worth fantasy consideration? I can see the argument for all four. Love is heading to a team with injury concerns and age ahead of him. Hill could maybe be the pass catching RB Baltimore wanted Kenneth Dixon to be. Benny Snell in has the Pittsburgh rushing attack, and Pollard is in Dallas’ rushing attack. Who’s your favorite of the four or are you out on all of them?
Scott: Going just off opportunity, Bryce has to be the guy with the clearest path to immediate relevance. Derrius Guice is a trendy name for this season, but Jay Gruden has never shown a lasting affection for anyone in his offense. He is willing to move onto the next guy as soon as one guy fails. Next, for me, is Benny, who people at FFStatistics really liked as a late round guy. He’s a really good fit there and could find a nice role in that offense if James Connor or Jaylen Samuels get hurt.
Seahawks Taking Flight
David: Seattle might be preparing to have Russell Wilson let it fly. We know DK Metcalf went there but they also added Gary Jennings Jr. in Round 4, John Ursua in the 7th, a pass catching back in Travis Homer in the 6th, and Jazz Ferguson and Marcelias Sutton as UDFAs on Day 3.
Scott: Seattle definitely favored a run-heavy approach last year, they had more than 100 more attempts rushing than passing. I don’t know if that was an adjustment made due to circumstance, or if it signals a new approach moving forward. Either way, they needed to upgrade at WR, and add some dimension to the passing game. That is even before you take Doug Baldwin possibly not playing or missing time. I’m not as high on DK as a lot of people, but it does show an effort by the Seahawks to improve. Wilson could improve, from a fantasy standpoint, and should be an excellent value in DFS. Last year he was a mid-range option at QB, based on salary, most of the time. His rushing ability and passing efficiency make him capable of a top 5 positional finish every week.
Riley Ridley, Mere Meme or More?
Scott: Is it time to talk about Riley Ridley yet? He became something of a meme amongst the staff here at times. Certainly, he generated a huge range of opinions. Personally, I do not believe in his potential. DFS players have the luxury of not having to make any long term commitment to him, which is perfect. What about him from a dynasty standpoint? Is he worth investing in? The Bears offense seems ready to make a step forward as Mitch Trubisky continues his development, what will his role be there?
David: I am not enthused but he might be worth a pick as the draft capital will shoot him further down the ranks. He does have the pedigree but the lack of production argument, because of a rush-heavy attack, lost all its footing with the bad combine added to it.
That’s My (Backup) Quarterback
Scott: Backup QBs were readily available for teams that had a need, or at least wanted to roster another guy. The Cincinnati Bengals took Ryan Finley and the New England Patriots took Jarrett Stidham in the fourth round. Both of those guys, on paper at least, have a path to playing time in the next few years. The same goes for Easton Stick for the Los Angeles Chargers and even Gardner Minshew down in Jacksonville. None of the guys will mean anything without a good showing early in camp or an injury to their starter. There is a lot of potential here, though. For DFS, nothing to see here. Do any of these guys move the needle for you?
David: I think you definitely have to pay attention to all of these guys. The obvious ones are the Patriots, Bengals, and Chargers, as their quarterbacks are all up there in age or Andy Dalton. Minshew, besides being my favorite player coming out. I am a WSU fan, but his story is still cool. Minshew was going to be a backup QB at Alabama and was hand-picked by Nick Saban. Mike Leach talked him into going to Washington State University instead. We know what happened there as Minshew was in the Heisman race. He also has the most likely to fail starter in front of him.
Even More Running Backs
David: Of all the late running backs taken on day 3, who is the most interesting to you? We had Ryquell Armstead, Rodney Anderson, Treyveon Williams, Travis Homer, Mike Weber, Devine Ozigbo, Alex Barnes and more. They all went either Round 4-7 or as undrafted free agents.
Scott: For me, Armstead is the most interesting. The RB situation in Jacksonville isn’t impossible for him to overcome. The other backups all have had a chance to establish themselves at the pro level. They all have not been unable to do so. Even their starter, Leonard Fournette, has been hurt and linked to trade rumors. The team’s Executive Vice President Tom Coughlin will not tolerate Fournette’s attitude problems if he has a viable option waiting behind him. Armstead’s speed and the relatively well-rounded game should endear him to the Jaguars’ staff.
David: Yeah, I really don’t have a lot to add to that. I am going to agree. There is a lot of potential in the group but just not an optimal situation. I will say this though, any running back behind a true workhorse like Zeke or CMC is worth owning. Pay attention to Tony Pollard, Mike Weber, and Jordan Scarlet, among others.
Going Deep with Wide Receivers
David: So in my opinion, a lot of talented wide receivers went undrafted. Guys like Antoine Wesley, Preston Williams, Stanley Morgan Jr, Tyree Brad, Damarkus Lodge, and Alex Wesley were all available. Which one to you has the most upside after they were signed? Which one for you is exciting?
Scott: The two names I am most interested in watching are Jason Moore and Damarkus Lodge, but I am interested in seeing how they shake out first. Obviously, it’s too early to think most of these players will earn a spot, but I like the offenses where those two are going. Alex Wesley is also interesting if he makes the Giants roster. New York has a bunch of mediocre guys vying for targets, but they should be down and throwing a lot. The opportunity is there for anyone, really, to get some run.
David: In my opinion, two of these guys that I really want to watch are Preston Williams and Emanuel Hall who went to the Miami Dolphins and Chicago Bears, respectively. Williams is entering a situation where there is a lot of uncertainty at the wide receiver position. He’s coming off a monster year at Colorado state but I believe legal troubles are what brought him down the draft boards. Hall will be joining a team with a lot of short-yardage receivers and Allen Robinson. I like Hall a lot better than the Chicago Bears 4th round signing of Riley Ridley and think he could surprise in the offseason and possibly earn himself a role on the team he was a player I was very surprised to see go undrafted.
Well, that is it. The latest iteration of the NFL Draft is in the books. Some teams have given hints about where they see their team going. Others seem to have no idea. If we are certain about one thing, it is that in five years, when we look back at this draft, most of what we thought about it will be wrong. Breaking down picks is easy, making them is hard. Until next year, keep second guessing!