32 Teams In 32 Days: New York Jets
32 Teams In 32 Days: New York Jets
Hello, fellow fantasy football degenerates. In my “32 In 32” series I will be going team by team breaking them down from every aspect you can think of. From their records, team statistics, Vegas lines, contract situations, individual statistics, fantasy numbers, draft picks and implications, free agency updates, and more. Everything to recap 2018 and preview 2019.
So, we are about to reach the halfway point in the #32TeamsIn32Days series but before we get there it is time to breakdown the third and final team from New York. In the 16th installment, it is time to look at the Jets. A team with a young and talented offensive corps that added a few more pieces in 2019. They also got themselves a new coach and maybe some new life. 2018 did not end the way they would have liked but this team may be ready to “take off” in 2019.
New York Jets (4-12)
First of all, the Jets are a team that seems to be in a constant rebuild. If a couple of things are going right over here, then ten are going wrong over there. They started the new season with a solid victory in their first-round Quarterbacks debut over Detroit but would follow that with three straight defeats. Then they won two straight games and followed it with another three loses. One more victory and yet another three-game losing streak. The season was as up and down as it gets. More so on the downside record wise but still there were good things to take away.
The 4-12 finish capped off the third straight season of five or fewer victories, the fourth in the last five seasons. Certainly, there were signs of promise and reasons to be excited for the Jets though. A young offensive corps that showed some of what they are possibly capable of producing in the future on a regular basis but they have a long hill to climb. As does the rest of the east as long as the Patriots are still on “Bill and Toms’s Excellent Adventure.”
The 250 win % cost Todd Bowells his job and the Jets brought in Adam Gase after Miami let him go. A coach that has seen success but not since he had one of the greatest quarterbacks ever essentially doing his job. Click the link above for the great breakdown as well as all the other coaching change reactions.
|Pre 1||Thu||August 8||7:00 PM ET||@||New York Giants|
|Pre 2||Thu||August 15||7:30 PM ET||@||Atlanta Falcons|
|Pre 3||Sat||August 24||7:30 PM ET||New Orleans Saints|
|Pre 4||Thu||August 29||7:00 PM ET||Philadelphia Eagles|
|1||Sun||September 8||1:00PM ET||Buffalo Bills||preview|
|2||Mon||September 16||8:15PM ET||Cleveland Browns||preview|
|3||Sun||September 22||1:00PM ET||@||New England Patriots||preview|
|5||Sun||October 6||1:00PM ET||@||Philadelphia Eagles||preview|
|6||Sun||October 13||4:25PM ET||Dallas Cowboys||preview|
|7||Mon||October 21||8:15PM ET||New England Patriots||preview|
|8||Sun||October 27||1:00PM ET||@||Jacksonville Jaguars||preview|
|9||Sun||November 3||1:00PM ET||@||Miami Dolphins||preview|
|10||Sun||November 10||1:00PM ET||New York Giants||preview|
|11||Sun||November 17||1:00PM ET||@||Washington Redskins||preview|
|12||Sun||November 24||1:00PM ET||Oakland Raiders||preview|
|13||Sun||December 1||1:00PM ET||@||Cincinnati Bengals||preview|
|14||Sun||December 8||1:00PM ET||Miami Dolphins||preview|
|15||Thu||December 12||8:20PM ET||@||Baltimore Ravens||preview|
|16||Sun||December 22||1:00PM ET||Pittsburgh Steelers||preview|
|17||Sun||December 29||1:00PM ET||@||Buffalo Bills||preview|
New York Offense
When the Jets were good in 2018, they were pretty good. Their young Offensive corps made some pretty decent strides last year. The rookie QB showed growth with his surrounding cast. It looked like the might have a running back for the future. They started the season with a good young slot receiver (When healthy), and a dangerous deep threat that showed some signs of becoming more in 2018, and a now second-year TE that finished in the top 15 at the position.. Unfortunately, the inconsistencies in the offensive production made it a guessing game to try and figure out the week.
Win/ Loss Point Totals
- Points in Wins – 48, 34, 42, 27 (Avg 37,75) Total 151
- Points in Losses – 12, 17, 12, 17, 10, 6, 10, 13, 22, 22, 38, 3 (Avg 14.33) Total 172
New York scored 19 fewer points in four victories than they did in 12 defeats. Of course, you going to score more in wins, but, an average difference of 23.42 Points per Game is a Grand Canyon of a gap. There were signs of promise though even in some losses as they put up a great fight with the Green Bay Packers in a shootout, overtime loss in Week 16 and had a couple of other games prior with 22 total points. The end was a gut check from the Champs in Week 17.
- Points Per Game 2017-2018 Differences (18.6, 20.8, +2.2)
- Yards Per Game 2017-2018 Differences (305.3, 299.2, -6.1)
- First Downs Per Game 2017-2018 Differences (16.82, 16.12, -0.6)
- Third Down Conversion Rate 2017-2018 Differences (35.5, 32.2, -3.3)
- Penalties Per Game 2017-2018 Differences (7.43, 7.12, -0.31)
- Turnover Differential 2017-2018 Difference (-4, -10, -6)
|G#||Opp||Spread||Over/Under||Result||vs. Line||OU Result|
Results vs. Line: 5-10-1
As Underdog vs. Line: 3-8-1
Favored vs. Line: 2-2-0
Over: 10 Under: 6 Push: 0
The Jets took Sam Darnold with the third pick in the 2018 Draft and handed him the keys heading into Week 1. He would hit the ground running helping the Jets to a 48-17 victory over the Detroit Lions and would put up the second-highest passer rating (116.8), yards per attempt passing (9.43), and completion % (76.19) in a game of his rookie season.
Over the next eight games, Darnold would lose some of his momentum and Avg fewer TDs than INTs (1.1, 1.6), and only throw more TDs than INTs in two of the nine games. The young QB would bounce back over the final four weeks averaging 20 completions on 31.3 attempts passing for 232.8 yards. Darnold’s TD to INT ratio would completely flip around as he threw 1.5 TDs per game and only threw one INT during the stretch. Darnold threw multiple TDs in only five of his 13 games played and had four games with multiple INTs. When he returned from his foot injury in Week 14, the TD to INT ratio flipped from 1/1.4 to 6/1.
Darnold’s 2018 Season
- QB26, 168.4 Fan Points
- Completed 249/414 Attempts (57.7%)
- 2,865 Yards (6.9 Y/A – 12.0 Y/C)
- 14 TDs (4.1% TD Rate) 15 INT (3.6% INT Rate)
- 44 RuAtt, 138 Yards, 1 TD
- Total QBR 47.9 (QB Rate 77.6)
Darnold added in a little bit of a running game with the 13th most carries (44) among QBs, the 10th most Red Zone carries (11), and scored a TD. In college, he did always add a little bit with his legs with at least 62 attempts ruching in each year he started and scored seven total TDs. This should be something he can add to boost his value a little bit while he learns the position better.
Darnold will be the beneficiary of another year of work with pass catchers like Robby Anderson and Chris Herndon as well as some new toys like one of the best pass catching RBs in Le’Veon Bell and a still dangerous slot man in Jamison Crowder. As you can see below, Darnold actually spread the ball around a decent amount for a rookie. He posted roughly a WR 62%/ RB 19%/ TE 19% split which bodes well for the development he showed in 2018.
So, as you can see above, Chris Herndon and Darnold were the only two that really develop solid season-long chemistry. At least when you exclude anyone with fewer than 23 targets. Darnold will need to develop that same chemistry with a lot more of his guys if is expecting to succeed.
2019 Free Agency QB Update
The Jets signed former Broncos QB Trevor Siemian to a one year deal to back up Sam Darnold. Josh McCown has yet to sign with a team but it might be wise to hold onto the veteran to help aid Darnold’s growth. The signing of Siemian might be the end though.
At the start of the season, the New York Jets began with Isaiah Crowell as their starting RB, Bilal Powell in the timeshare role, Elijah McGuire on the IR with a foot injury. They would also Draft Trenton Cannon out of Virginia State.
Through the first 10 Weeks of the season, Crowell was the RB14 in Standard leagues and the RB22 in PPR. An RB2 in all formats. Much of this came from three monster weeks (1, 3, 5) where he scored five TDs and even had a 200-yard rushing performance. He had two 100+ yards games and that even includes a game with 0 yards rushing. That is not a typo, 0 yards. Crowell only scored one TD following Week 5 and failed to reach 50 yards rushing in all but one game.
Crowell has since been released. The Jets got out of the contract for $2,000,000 Dead Cap. Powell is a free agent so the young RBs looked likely to take the reigns in 2019 depending on what happened in free agency. Unfortunately for them, a move was made that brought one of the elite running backs in the league to town.
Crowell’s 2018 Season
- RB29, 119.7 Fan Points
- 143 RuAtt (11.0 AttP/G), 685 Yards (52.6 YdP/G), 1 100 Yard Game
- Caught 21/28 Targets, 152 Yards (7.2 Y/R)
- 6 RuTD, 0 ReTD (6 Total)
- 164 Touches, 837 Yards (5.1 Y/T)
The Jets second-year RB, as I stated above, started the season on the IR (Foot) but would be activated for Week 9. The duties would be shared over his first four games back from injury and McGuire would take the lesser share. Crowell in the majority role.
McGuire’s Per Game Averages
- First four games (8.3 Touches, 41.3 Yards, 0 TDs, Caught 2.8/3.8 Targets, 4.9 Y/T)
- Last four games (19.6 Touches, 75 Yards, 1 TD, Caught 2/4 Targets, 3.8 Y/T)
McGuire’s season totals might not seem all that great. He excelled at a moderate level when he received the majority role in the backfield. As far as scoring and opportunity go anyways.
His efficiency dropped by over a full yard (1.1 yards per touch). So what to make of this? Generally, efficiency will go down as volume goes up but that is a considerable difference and might have been part of the reason for rumors of the jets not being satisfied at the RB position, which led to the signing New York would eventually make.. McGuire received 31 targets in eight games but Trenton Cannon was hoping to stay on as the reserve/ pass-catching back. The role he took over after Bilal Powell went on the IR. But, the Jets found someone that can do it all…
2019 Free Agency RB Update
So the Jets won the Le’Veon Bell sweepstakes. Now to see if he is as talented as it appeared in Pittsburgh or if he was just in the right situation. In my opinion, it is a combination of the two. We saw last season that multiple RBs were able to be very successful in the Pittsburgh system and in some ways even better than Bell. There have been 29 RB2 or better finishes in the past 2 seasons produced by the Steelers backfield.
Granted a defense will not always play the same way against a different player. Bell is entering a situation that is definitely worse than the one he left. Essentially at every position on the offense. Above all, Bell is good though. Very good. The last time we saw him, he performed at a better point per opportunity total than Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gorden.
It has been a year since we have seen him but they last time Bell was on the field he led the league in attempts rushing, was second in targets among RBs, first in receptions among RBs and fourth in receiving yards among RBs with the third most rushing yards in the league. Bell likely will not be the exact same producer that he was but volume is the key and he can handle a lot of it.
They also gave him 27 million guaranteed dollars so if contract weighs into the volume at all for the Jets, Bell will get a lot of it. In other words, this is probably the end of Elijah McGuire’s 2019 value if not longer. Again, do not expect the same player from Pittsburgh. Do expect a very solid low-end RB1/ high-end RB2 with The RB1 upside.
- Jalin Moore
Undrafted: 2019, Jets
College: Appalachian State
In 2017, Robby Anderson finished the season with exactly 200 points in PPR leagues and finished WR18. 2018 was about 90% driven by a five-game stretch in which Anderson Caught 4.6/6.6 targets for 83.6 yards and 1.2 TDs (18.17 Y/R). This is a 16 games pace of 74 receptions, 106 targets, 1,338 yards, and 19 TDs. Seems crazy right? Most of it, yes, but he did receive 8 more targets than that last year and came up 11 receptions shy. The potential is there for a big season. Not 19 TDs big of course. The excitement was lessened shortly after the season due to an arrest for reckless driving but nothing would happen legally to affect his season as it stands.
Anderson’s season started out with a carry-over of that excitement but not exactly what owners would have wanted because he only received one target. Fortunately, he caught that target for a 41 yard TD. From that point on, Anderson would not see fewer than 4 targets in any game and had multiple receptions in every game as well.
The yardage was not always something to marvel at (Seven games under 40 yards receiving) but he did have two games over 120 yards receiving and two more with more than 75. if you pace out the production from Week 2-17 (13 Games) he had the same amount of targets, 3 fewer receptions, 66 fewer yards, and 1 fewer TD. Also, the third year WR averaged the most yards per reception (15.0). Below is Andersons 2018 season compared to a couple of other low volume TD scorers.
Career Y/R, Y/T
- 2016 -14.0, 7.52
- 2017 – 14.9, 8.25
- 2018 – 15.0, 8.0
He will probably never catch over 65% of his targets because Anderson is, at his best, a deep threat. If he can develop more into a top WR and be used all over the field, Anderson could stay down inside that top-20 range at WR. Over the last two seasons, he is in the top-nine in the league in end zone target share (’19 – 39.2%, eighth/ ’18 – 40.5%, ninth) with 26 total end zone targets. The potential is there at least. Will they pay him like he is that before he gets to that level is the next question.
Anderson’s 2018 Season
- W36, 106.4 Fan Points
- Caught 50/94 Targets (53.2%) 3.6 P/G
- 752 Yards (15.0 Y/R, 8.0 Y/T) 2 100 Yard games
- 6 TDs
The Rest Of The WR Corps
After a season in which he produced 38 receptions on 68 targets for 449 yards and one TD, Quincy Enunwa was signed to a four-year extension. The next day they placed him on season-ending IR with an ankle injury. Enunwa was also bothered by the ankle earlier in the season as well. The numbers were not exactly impressive but there were flashes in the first four games.
- Weeks 1-4 – Avg 8.75 Targets per Game, all four games over 55 Yards receiving, one TD.
- Weeks 5-17 (seven games) – Avg. 4.6 Targets per Game, one game over 55 Yards receiving, no TDs.
Who Gonna Stay? (Free Agents Following 2018)
WR Free Agents
- Robby Anderson – With team still
- Jermaine Kearse – Without a team
- Andre Roberts – Buffalo Bills
- Rishard Matthews – Without a team
- Deontay Burnett – With team still
- Quincy Enunwa
- DeAngelo Yancey
- Charone Peake
- JJ Jones
- Tim White
Meanwhile, an odd move was made when New York acquired Jamison Crowder. Crowder is coming off an injury-ridden, down season but he does have talent. That is not the odd part. The odd part is that they signed Quincy Enunwa to a contract extension recently. The slot is where Enunwa has shown the best but this move will likely push him outside. Note: Jemaine Kearse and Rishard Mathews are yet to sign with a team. Andre Roberts signed with the Bills but they were able to bring in Josh Bellamy as well on a two-year deal.
- Greg Dortch
Undrafted: 2019, Jets
College: Wake Forest
Dortch is a small, quick, efficient TD scorer. At least that is what he showed in college as you can see below. He will need to prove he can be so at the pro level to get on the field much in year one as the Jets have a few guys that can play the slot.
- Jeff Smith
Undrafted: 2019, Jets
College: Boston College
- Xavier Ubosi
Undrafted: 2019, Jets
College: Boston College
Chris Herndon finished 2018 as the TE14 in Standard and 15 in PPR. Not to bad for a rookie TE. But if you look above you can see that from Week 6 through your fantasy championship in Week 16, he was much better then that.
- Standard – TE14 (73.4 Points)
- 1/2 Point – TE15 (92.4)
- Full Point – TE15 (111.4)
- Standard – TE6 (68.7 Points)
- 1/2 Point – TE6 (85.7)
- Caught 1/1.4 Targets, 9.4 Yards, 0 TD
- Caught 3.3/4.6 Targets, 44.7 Yards, 0.4 TDs
Herndon’s 2018 Season
- TE14, 74.2 Fan Points
- Caught 39/56 Targets (69.6%) 2.4 P/G
- 502 Yards (12.9 Y/R, 8.9 Y/T) 0 100 Yard Games
- 4 TDs
Another year with Sam Darnold will only help Herndon as they develop more of a relationship on the field together (a reminder of just how much they have connected already since the start of 2018, above). The young QBs best friend can be a TE. They run routes closer to the line of scrimmage which is generally safer throws for the QB, They can be fed targets by way of the dump off but as they both grow together, be used more downfield. He is already a red zone weapon and if he produces like in a similar fashion in 2019 (Weeks 6-16, 16 Game Pace – Catching 53/74 Targets, 715 Yards, 6 TDs) he will be an easy TE1.
If he and Darnold can step their games up a notch in year two and not suffer the sophomore slump, he can be better. We are always looking for reliable TEs. Unfortunately, reports came out with a video of a possible DUI for the young TE and we will have to see what happens. If suspended, look for the Jets to bring someone on in Free Agency. New York has three other TEs that were all free agents in ’19 (Neal Sterling, Clive Walford, Eric Tomlinson).
2019 Free Agency TE Update
New York has an up and coming TE that looked very solid last season and seems to really thrive with Beckham off the field so they are not looking for a starter but they do need depth at the position. Daniel Brown was acquired via Free Agency after Chicago failed to re-sign him because they lost Walford to the Dolphins. Neal Sterling Re-signed for 2019 as well. Certainly, at this point, none of these moves matter for fantasy.
2019 Free Agency O-Line Update
The Jets lost Center Spencer Long and Guard James Carpenter. However, they were able to acquire Tom Compton to help out. It’s just a one year deal worth less than two million.
2018 Fantasy Relevant Draftees
3rd Overall, QB Sam Darnold
- Completed 249/414 Attempts, 2,865 Yards, 17 TDs, 15 INTs, 44 RuATT, 138 Yards, 1 TD
107th Overall, TE Chris Herndon
- Caught 39/56 Targets, 502 Yards, 4 TDs
204h Overall, RB Trenton Cannon
- 55 Touches, 257 Yards, 1 TD
With the 3rd pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the New York Jets select…(Prediction originally made 2/15/2019)
New York has put together a solid young group of offensive talent that we saw take steps forward in ’18. I would expect them to either find some help protecting their young QB or draft to help that defense out. Reports from Feb 27th are that they might be trying to trade out of the pick.
- Quinnen Williams DL, BAMA
Height: 6-3, Weight: 303
- Jachai Polite EDGE, FLA
Height: 6-3, Weight: 258
- Chuma Edoga OL, USC
Height: 6-3, Weight: 308
- Trevon Wesco TE, WVU
Height: 6-3, Weight: 267
- Blake Cashman LB, MINN
Height: 6-1, Weight: 237
- Blessuan Austin CB, RUT
Height: 6-1, Weight: 198
Click here to see the Jets injuries.
2019 Cap Space $29,288,563
Heading into 2019 the biggest thing to look at will honestly be the Coach. Adam Gase got the job in Miami based on what he did with Peyton Manning in Denver. They did do some great things together producing the highest scoring offense ever. But many think that it was about 95% Manning and 5% Gase as far as the responsibility for the great year. They have offensive pieces in place. Young ones that showed potential in 2018. Can he get Darnold to the next level he fell short with Tannehill on?
Is Elijah Mcguire still a factor or does the Lev Bell signing eliminate him? Robby Anderson looked to take a step forward towards becoming a true number one WR for the Jets but do they pay him as such? What about the rest of the WRs? Do the additions to the receiving corps help Darnold elevate his game to warrant that first round capital? Receivers can take a year to adjust to a new scheme so we will have to see.
People would love to see Herndon work his way into the top-10 at the TE position but reports of a possible DUI did surface recently which could be a big hit to his value as he will likely serve a suspension. Enter Trevon Wesco maybe. The O-Line should stay largely intact with only James carpenter not under contract in 2019. I’d expect the Jets to finish a little better than 4-12 next year.