Best Draft Value Wide Receiver: Geronimo Allison
With Marquez Valdes-Scantling getting heaped with offseason praise his ADP is creeping up and up as well. Meanwhile, Geronimo Allison is turning into the forgotten man in Green Bay. Come draft day, should you follow the hype and pick up MVS however high his draft price makes it? Or should you sit back, go against the grain, and draft Allison at a discount?
Follow The Money
When the pecking order at a position for any given team is ambiguous, there is one simple rule to go by.
Follow. The. Money.
Allison isn’t breaking the bank for Green Bay, but his one year $2.8mil contract does make him the second highest receiver on the Packers roster, according to Over The Cap. Perhaps even more important than the salary number is the fact that Green Bay’s front office gave him that contract after a season mostly lost to injury. The team could have let Allison test free agency after a season where he only played in five games. Instead, they put money on the table and secured him for 2019 ahead of him hitting the market. I can’t imagine Green Bay doing so without a plan for Allison this season.
The Rodgers Connection
We all know Devante Adams is the top receiver in Green Bay, and flirting with being the top wideout off the boards in 2019. So when taking a secondary (or in few circumstances, the third choice) receiver, who the quarterback is and how much volume the offense has makes a huge impact.
Aaron Rodgers is still at the helm in Wisconson and even after a “down” year finished as the sixth best quarterback in fantasy. A quarterback can’t produce without his receivers.
With Randall Cobb leaving town (more on that later) we don’t have a very large sample size for any receiver not named Davante Adams. But on 30 targets Rodgers produced his best passer rating when connecting with Geronimo Allison last season. No that isn’t just product of a limited amount of targets. Despite having more than double the targets, MVS only recorded 18 more receptions and the same number of touchdowns. This is demonstrated in Allison’s yards per target being 2+ yards better than MVS.
This suggests MVS is the “homerun” threat. Using his 4.37 40 time to stretch the field Valdes-Scantling is apt to have more misses than hits. One play might make his fantasy day, but Allison looks to be the consistent fantasy producer.
This One Goes to Eleven
In Fantasy, volume is king.
Early training camp reports are claiming that Allison is lining up in the slot in three-wide sets. A vacancy left by Cobb when he moved south to join the Cowboys. If Allison who only played in the slot 12% of his snaps, is the new slot receiver taking over Cobb’s role, that means high-value targets and plenty of work. Cobb averaged 6.4 targets-per-game or about 103 in 16 games. That’s not an overly aggressive projection. Consider the team ranked third overall in pass attempts last year with 640 and could be primed to throw it even more in 2019. Allison targets could flirt with Cobb’s prime years of 2014 & 2015, 127 and 129 respectively. If Allison sees 120 targets and still hauls in his career 60.4% catch percentage, 70 receptions is his baseline. If he is seeing higher percentage targets from the slot position, those numbers are likely to rise. An increase in volume paired with an increase in efficiency could make 2019 a career year for Geronimo Allison.
Ignore The Noise
The contract demonstrates a commitment by the team. The quarterback is one of the best in the league. Plus the volume and efficiency is pointed up. With all of that being said, let someone else get swept up in the Marquez Valdes-Scantling offseason hype machine. You are the savvy drafter. The master of the sleeper pick. The, dare I say it, FFStatistics subscriber. Sit back, relax and wait on Geronimo Allison, whose ADP has stagnated at the back of Round 8. Then enjoy.